Objectives: The uncertainties of pedestrian mobility are important factors affecting the accuracy and robustness of an active pedestrian protection system. This study is to provide the means for probabilistic risk evaluation of pedestrian–vehicle collision by counting the uncertainties in pedestrian motion.
Method: The pedestrian is modeled by a first-order Markov model to characterize the stochastic properties in mobility according to field experiments of pedestrians crossing an uncontrolled road. Based on the assumption of Gaussian distribution, unscented transformation (UT) is employed to predict the collision risk probability with the symmetric σ-set constructed on the basis of discrete trajectory simulation. Simulation experiments were carried out with 10,000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulations as the reference.
Results: The probability density distributions of time-to-collision, minimal distance, and collision probability estimated by UT coincide with the reference ones under various vehicle–pedestrian conflict scenarios, and the maximal deviation of collision probability from the reference is 5.33%. The UT method is about 600 times faster than the MC method (10,000 runs), which means that the proposed method has the potential for online application.
Conclusions: This article presents an effective and efficient algorithm to estimate the collision probability by using a UT method to solve the nonlinear transformation of uncertainties in pedestrian motion. Simulation results show that the UT-based method achieves accurate collision probability estimation and higher computation efficiency than MC and provides more valuable information concerning collision avoidance than the deterministic methods in the design of a pedestrian collision avoidance system. 相似文献
The quality of science for policy depends as much on the robustness of available scientific knowledge as it does on the procedural settings and working procedures in safety agencies. Using a report on Bisphenol A as a case study, and a set of original criteria, we provide an understanding of procedural influences on the results of scientific advisory committees and about literature reviews for chemical hazard characterization. Expert elicitation revealed that three aspects are critically important for the results of the advisory activity and for the selected case study: the method used to combine different studies, the interpretation of the review results in terms of level of evidence and conclusiveness, and the choice of uncertainty factors. Our results also show how procedural settings and working procedures can promote the invisible influence of values and policy on scientific advisory activities. 相似文献
This study investigates the impact of climate and land use change on the magnitude and timing of streamflow and sediment yield in a snow‐dominated mountainous watershed in Salt Lake County, Utah using a scenario approach and the Hydrological Simulation Program — FORTRAN model for the 2040s (year 2035–2044) and 2090s (year 2085–2094). The climate scenarios were statistically and dynamically downscaled from global climate models. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes were estimated in two ways — from a regional planning scenario and from a deterministic model. Results indicate the mean daily streamflow in the Jordan River watershed will increase by an amount ranging from 11.2% to 14.5% in the 2040s and from 6.8% to 15.3% in the 2090s. The respective increases in sediment load in the 2040s and 2090s is projected to be 6.7% and 39.7% in the canyons and about 7.4% to 14.2% in the Jordan valley. The historical 50th percentile timing of streamflow and sediment load is projected to be shifted earlier by three to four weeks by mid‐century and four to eight weeks by late‐century. The projected streamflow and sediment load results establish a nonlinear relationship with each other and are highly sensitive to projected climate change. The predicted changes in streamflow and sediment yield will have implications for water supply, flood control and stormwater management. 相似文献
Stedinger, Jery R. and Veronica W. Griffis, 2011. Getting From Here to Where? Flood Frequency Analysis and Climate. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):506‐513. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00545.x Abstract: Modeling variations in flood risk due to climate change and climate variability are a challenge to our profession. Flood‐risk computations by United States (U.S.) federal agencies follow guidelines in Bulletin 17 for which the latest update 17B was published in 1982. Efforts are underway to update that remarkable document. Additional guidance in the Bulletin as to how to address variation in flood risk over time would be welcome. Extensions of the log‐Pearson type 3 model to include changes in flood risk over time would be relatively easy mathematically. Here an example of the use of a sea surface temperature anomaly to anticipate changes in flood risk from year to year in the U.S. illustrates this opportunity. Efforts to project the trend in the Mississippi River flood series beg the question as to whether an observed trend will continue unabated, has reached its maximum, or is really nothing other than climate variability. We are challenged with the question raised by Milly and others: Is stationarity dead? Overall, we do not know the present flood risk at a site because of limited flood records. If we allow for historical climate variability and climate change, we know even less. But the issue is not whether stationarity is dead – the issue is how to use all the information available to reliably forecast flood risk in the future: “Where do we go from here?” 相似文献
There are many barriers to using science to inform conservation policy and practice. Conservation scientists wishing to produce management‐relevant science must balance this goal with the imperative of demonstrating novelty and rigor in their science. Decision makers seeking to make evidence‐based decisions must balance a desire for knowledge with the need to act despite uncertainty. Generating science that will effectively inform management decisions requires that the production of information (the components of knowledge) be salient (relevant and timely), credible (authoritative, believable, and trusted), and legitimate (developed via a process that considers the values and perspectives of all relevant actors) in the eyes of both researchers and decision makers. We perceive 3 key challenges for those hoping to generate conservation science that achieves all 3 of these information characteristics. First, scientific and management audiences can have contrasting perceptions about the salience of research. Second, the pursuit of scientific credibility can come at the cost of salience and legitimacy in the eyes of decision makers, and, third, different actors can have conflicting views about what constitutes legitimate information. We highlight 4 institutional frameworks that can facilitate science that will inform management: boundary organizations (environmental organizations that span the boundary between science and management), research scientists embedded in resource management agencies, formal links between decision makers and scientists at research‐focused institutions, and training programs for conservation professionals. Although these are not the only approaches to generating boundary‐spanning science, nor are they mutually exclusive, they provide mechanisms for promoting communication, translation, and mediation across the knowledge–action boundary. We believe that despite the challenges, conservation science should strive to be a boundary science, which both advances scientific understanding and contributes to decision making. Logrando que la Ciencia de la Conservación Trasponga la Frontera Conocimiento‐Acción 相似文献
Although many taxa have declined globally, conservation actions are inherently local. Ecosystems degrade even in protected areas, and maintaining natural systems in a desired condition may require active management. Implementing management decisions under uncertainty requires a logical and transparent process to identify objectives, develop management actions, formulate system models to link actions with objectives, monitor to reduce uncertainty and identify system state (i.e., resource condition), and determine an optimal management strategy. We applied one such structured decision‐making approach that incorporates these critical elements to inform management of amphibian populations in a protected area managed by the U.S. National Park Service. Climate change is expected to affect amphibian occupancy of wetlands and to increase uncertainty in management decision making. We used the tools of structured decision making to identify short‐term management solutions that incorporate our current understanding of the effect of climate change on amphibians, emphasizing how management can be undertaken even with incomplete information. Estrategia para Monitorear y Manejar Disminuciones en una Comunidad de Anfibios 相似文献
Integrated assessment models have been used to support ofnegotiations for further emission reductions of acidifyingcompounds in Europe. More attention is being paid to theuncertainties in integrated models. Data from three Finnishintegrated acidification models were compiled to estimate thevariation and relative importance of different modules. Themodels included site-specific and regional dynamic simulationsand steady-state critical load calculations for forest soilsand lakes. The main emphasis was on the variability ofemissions and the uncertainties in ecosystem effects. Althoughmaximum technically feasible emission reduction measures cantheoretically result in very low deposition, the variabilitybetween realistic scenarios is rather restricted. Thevariability of deposition loading is largely determined byreductions in nearby emission sources. The dynamicsimulations, which are often based on detailed input data,seem to retain larger variability than steady-state criticalload approaches. This study suggests that the uncertainties ineffects seem to be larger generally than other modules ofintegrated acidification models. The results indicate the needfor further work on uncertainty analysis for integrated modelsand the availability of useful model systems for furtherconfirmation of ecosystem effects. 相似文献