Monte Carlo assessment of uncertainty in the simulated hydrological response to land use change

We quantified the uncertainty in hydrological response for a set of land use change scenarios by varying plant parameters within realistic uncertainty bounds in a Monte Carlo analysis. The results show that simulated hydrological fluxes significantly change after the introduction of outwintering suckler cow management, despite the presence of a significant amount of output uncertainty due to uncertainty in the plant parameterisation. The key to a proper uncertainty assessment was to consider the uncertainty in the difference between the scenarios instead of the absolute uncertainty of each single scenario. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis showed that changing soil properties in response to land use change does not result in significantly different results in the scenario analysis.     

利用质控数据评定AFS法测定水中汞的测量不确定度

根据连续5天的质控数据,采用中国合格评定国家认可委员会(CNAS)的《利用质控数据评定化学检测领域测量不确定度》方法来评定原子荧光光度仪(AFS)法测定水中汞的不确定度。经过计算评定,在95%概率下AFS法测定水中汞的扩展不确定度为0.82μg/L。与传统的A、B类不确定度进行对比,利用质控数据评定测量不确定度法更适用于操作过程复杂、不确定度分量难确定的化学分析及无标准品的情况。     

Uncertainty management in integrated assessment modeling: towards a pluralistic approach

Integrated Assessment (IA) is an evolving research community that aims to address complex societal issues through an interdisciplinary process. The most-widely used method in Integrated Assessment is modeling. The state of the art in Integrated Assessment modeling is described in this paper in terms of history, general features, classes of models, and in terms of the strengths and weaknesses, and the dilemmasand challenges modelers face. One of the key challenges is the issue of uncertainty management. The paper outlines the sources and types of uncertainty modelers are confronted with. It then discusses how uncertainties are currently managed inIntegrated Assessment modeling, on which evaluation it is argued that complementary methods are needed that allow for pluralistic uncertainty management. The paperfinalises with discussing pluralistic concepts and approaches that are currently explored in the IA community and that seem promising in view of the challenge to incorporate explicitly more than one hidden perspective in models.     

利用top-down技术评定ICP-MS法测定水中镉的测量不确定度

根据不同分析人员在连续30周内水质中镉实验室质控样品的分析数据,采用top-down技术中的控制图法评定电感耦合等离子体质谱(ICP-MS)法测定水中镉的不确定度。方法依据《生活饮用水标准检验方法金属指标》(GB/T5750.6—2006 1.5)测定镉质量浓度为2.00μg/L的质控样品,测定均值为2.010μg/L,通过评定,不确定度为0.100μg/L。     

火焰原子吸收法测定水样中锑含量的不确定度评定

在水样锑的含量测定中,锑含量为12．69mg／L,其扩展不确定度为0．30mg／L（置信度95％,k=2）。火焰原子吸收法测定样品中锑的不确定度分量来源主要是标准溶液配制的相对不确定度、工作曲线拟合产生的相对不确定度及仪器引入的相对不确定度。     

硝酸银滴定法测量水中氯化物含量的不确定度评定

采用硝酸银滴定法测量水中氯化物含量,根据化学分析项目建立数学模型,对测定水样中氯化物的不确定度来源-配制NaCI标准溶液、标定AgNO3标准溶液浓度、测水样消耗AgNO3溶液体积、取水样体积、样品重复性测定等参数引入的不确定度分量进行识别和分析,进而对所有不确定度分量进行量化,得出测量不确定度结果,提出了该方法的合成不确定度及监测过程中的注意环节。     

吹扫捕集气相色谱-质谱法测定水中挥发性有机物的不确定度评定研究

根据测量不确定度评定与表示理论,对吹扫捕集气相色谱-质谱法测定水中挥发性有机物的不确定度进行了评定,以水中氯仿为例进行分析,通过对测量重复性、使用注射器、标准曲线拟合等影响测量结果的不确定度分量的分析和量化,求得水中挥发性有机物测定结果的相对合成标准不确定度。目的是建立吹扫捕集气相色谱-质谱法测定水中挥发性有机物的不确定度评定方法,以评定测量结果的质量。该不确定度评定方法在实际工作中具有较强的实用价值。     

广东电力生产的温室气体排放趋势和演变特征

通过文献调研收集广东电力生产最新的能源消费数据和排放因子,采用“自上而下”方法估算1995—2011年广东电力行业的直接和间接GHG(温室气体)排放量,量化直接排放量的不确定性,绘制GHG排放流向图,并且根据GHG排放特征提出减排建议. 结果表明:①虽然受经济、环境和能源政策的影响,与1995年相比,2011年广东电力生产的GHG总排放量仍增长438%,达3.44×108 t,其中直接排放量达2.78×108 t,不确定性为±11%. ②从发电能源结构角度考虑,燃煤发电是电力生产的最大GHG排放源,2011年其排放量占总排放量的76%;而从用电终端考虑,工业用电是最大的GHG排放源,2011年其排放量占电力生产GHG总排放量的66%. ③1995—2011年,用电终端总体电力GHG排放强度下降了16%,居民用电人均GHG排放量上升了260%,单位综合发电量的GHG排放系数微升了1%. ④发电能源结构和终端产业结构的低碳化以及控制居民用电的GHG排放量等措施可减排2011年广东电力生产GHG总排放量的44%.      

两种不同构型b射线颗粒物分析仪线性关系的有效性评价

为评价导流锥式同时采样-测量β射线颗粒物分析仪的测量准确度,以分步采样-测量β射线颗粒物分析仪采样分析作为参比方法,使用2类构型的仪器对环境空气中可吸入颗粒物PM₁₀和细颗粒物PM_2.5进行长期平行比对监测.本文依据EN 16450标准对比对数据线性关系进行有效性评价,建立了修正的线性方程,导出了方法间不确定度评价式,结果表明导流锥式同时采样-测量结构和分步采样-测量结构的β射线颗粒物分析仪之间存在有效的线性关系.通过仪器内置修正参数浓度斜率、浓度截距修正后,在较宽浓度跨度范围（0~250μg/m³）内和足够多的比对数据（n>100）条件下,两种不同结构的仪器监测PM₁₀和PM_2.5的比对斜率、截距和相关系数（参比方法作为X轴）均能满足EPA CFR 40part53的要求.     

THE USE OF A SIMPLE MODEL AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN LAKE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: A simple, black-box lake model was developed for phosphorus, using nonlinear regression analysis on a data base of north temperate lakes. The uncertainty associated with the model was then combined with the parameter uncertainty and the independent variable uncertainty to provide an estimate of the confidence limits associated with a predicted value. The prediction uncertainty is often neglected, yet it is an important measure of the usefulness of a model. Prediction uncertainty reflects the modeler's confidence in the model, and it should be used by a decision maker as a weight indicating the value of the model prediction. A procedure is outlined that combined lake modeling and uncertainty analysis for use in lake quality assessment and lake management. An example is provided illustrating the use of this procedure in nutrient budget sampling design, data analysis, and the evaluation of lake management strategies for a 208 program in New Hampshire.