环境监测用正己烷气体标准样品的研制

采用称量法通过两步稀释制备了含量水平为1μmol/mol的氮气中正己烷气体标准样品,考察了气瓶内壁吸附作用、制备重现性、瓶内均匀性、时间稳定性等相关因素的影响,并将该正己烷气体标准样品与同类气体标准样品进行了比较。结果表明:该正己烷气体标准样品的最低使用压力为1 MPa,有效期为12个月(0~38℃),相对扩展不确定度(k=2)为2%;该正己烷气体标准样品的量值与同类标准样品具有可比性,可为相关环境监测工作提供技术支持。     

Do remediation experts have what it takes to explain empirical uncertainty?

Words matter in risk communication, and experts’ choice of words is critical when remediation risks are being explained to nonexperts. In risk communication studies, communication gaps between experts and nonexperts are investigated but there is lack of primary research. An Australian project addresses this shortcoming through research into communication about the risks of contaminated land remediation, and this paper provides some of its findings. Seventeen experts completed a questionnaire about the meaning of some scientific terms, and analysis found that they have capacity to improve communication through their selection and use of language. When experts undertake risk communication, the language they use may increase or reduce communication gaps. When the topic is uncertainty about health risks, communication gaps about the extent of uncertainty may reduce the effectiveness of social engagement, leading to unintended consequences such as cost overruns. This situation makes for a good case study since remediation is about benefit as well as risk, and communication about benefit, while desirable, may not always be achievable. The study suggests how to improve risk communication by exploring the accuracy, clarity, and depth of expert language. It identifies attributes of language that can bridge gaps in knowledge and understanding and characterizes them as integration mechanisms. These are defined as knowledge forms and mental processes that support cooperation between different epistemic communities to achieve mutually agreed outcomes. Two integration mechanisms are suggested. Bridging content addresses communication gaps through the selection of content (what knowledge is selected). Bridging process addresses communication gaps through the use of language (how knowledge is explained). Bridging content and bridging process can be expressed through cognitive and experiential platforms, or a blending of both, so whether words are positioned in the science‐based or mental model of risk communication, a utility value can be found in their quality, whether reflected by accuracy or the power to communicate meaning.     

The effect of experience on choosing where to go: an application to a choice experiment on forest recreation

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of experience on the choice of visits to forests in a stated discrete choice experiment. Recent literature has indicated that experiences with the environmental services valuated may increase the respondents' certainty in their choice of hypothetical alternatives. We apply two indicators of experiences: the number of visits and the number of different forests visited during the last year. Applying the generalized multinomial logit model, we find that an increase in the number of visits to forests makes respondents' choices more predictable. However, the number of different forests visited reduces the predictability of choices. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between respondents' experience of forest recreation and the self-reported choice certainty, controlling for respondents' social-demographics and other design characteristics. Finally, we show that self-reported choice certainty is positive correlated with the scale factor, as expected.     

How Grammatical Choice Shapes Media Representations of Climate (Un)certainty

Although mass media continue to play a key role in translating scientific uncertainty for public discourse, communicators of climate science are becoming increasingly aware of their own role in shaping scientific messages in the news. As an example of how future media research can provide relevant feedback to climate communicators, the present study examines the ways in which grammatical and word choices represent and construct uncertainty in news reporting about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Qualifying and hedging language and other “epistemic markers” are analyzed in four newspapers during 2001 and 2007: the New York Times and Wall Street Journal from the USA and El País and El Mundo from Spain. Though the US newspapers contained a higher density of epistemic markers and used more ambiguous grammatical constructs of uncertainty than the Spanish newspapers, all four media sources chose similar words when questioning the certainty around climate change. Moreover, the density of epistemic markers in each newspaper either remained the same or increased with time, despite ever-growing scientific agreement that human activities modify global climate. While the US newspapers increasingly adopted IPCC language to describe climate uncertainties, they also exhibited an emerging tendency to construct uncertainty by highlighting differences between IPCC reports or between scientific predictions and observations. The analysis thus helps identify articulations of uncertainty that will shape future media portrayals of climate science across varying cultural and national contexts.     

An introduction to decision science for conservation

Biodiversity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science; confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply; and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science, decision theory, decision analysis, structured decision-making, and decision-support tools. Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming; rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade-offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid-prototyping approach. At each step, decision-support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision-support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision-support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.     

信息论方法在水资源系统工程中的应用

水资源系统工程是水资源科学与系统科学相互交叉形成的一门新兴综合性工程技术学科，在人口、资源、环境、经济与社会区域可持续发展战略研究中具有重要意义。其中的一个重要研究问题是如何有效挖掘实际水资源复杂系统中各种不确定性信息。为此。在阐述信息论基本概念和主要方法的基础上。对信息论方法在水资源系统工程中的应用研究按照水资源系统工程的理论框架进行了划分。详细论述了近年来信息论在水资源系统建模、优化、模拟、预测、评价、决策中的应用，探讨了信息论方法用于水资源系统工程中存在的问题和相应对策．展望了信息论方法在水资源系统工程中的应用前景，指出了建设基于信息论的水信息学学科的必要性。这些信息论方法在资源系统工程、环境系统工程和管理系统工程等应用系统工程研究中具有一定参考应用价值。     

军品用电动振动试验台测量结果不确定度评定

振动试验台测量结果是否准确可靠,直接关系到对军工产品的评价.结合军工产品环境振动试验工作实际,根据检定规程JJG190-1997《电动振动试验台》检定规程的要求,对使用中电动振动试验台测量结果不确定度进行评定,使电动振动试验台测量结果更加科学合理可靠.     

Climatic Implications of Revised IPCC Emissions Scenarios, the Kyoto Protocol and Quantification of Uncertainties

In December 1997, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) adopted the Kyoto Protocol. This paper describes a framework that models the climatic implications of this international agreement, using Monte Carlo simulations and the preliminary Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios (SRES). Emissions scenarios (including intervention scenarios), climate sensitivity, and terrestrial carbon sink are the key sampled model parameters. This framework gives prior probability distributions to these parameters and, using a simple climate model, posterior distributions of global temperature change are determined for the future. Our exercise showed that the Kyoto Protocol's effectiveness will be mostly dependent upon which SRES world evolves. In some worlds the Protocol decreases the warming considerably but in others it is almost irrelevant. We exemplified this approach with a current FCCC issue, namely “hot air”. This modelling framework provides a probabilistic assessment of climate policies, which can be useful for decision-makers involved in global climate change management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

X射线荧光光谱法测定土壤样品中铅的不确定度评定

用实例对X射线荧光光谱法测定土壤样品中铅的不确定度进行了评定.测量结果的不确定度由仪器综合稳定性、制样、标准物质、回归工作曲线、重复测量等所引入的不确定度分量组成.在对各个不确定度分量进行量化的基础上,通过合成得到测量结果的标准不确定度,再乘以95%置信概率下的扩展因子2,得到测量结果的扩展不确定度.     

离子色谱法测定降水中部分阴离子含量的测量不确定度评定

通过对离子色谱法测定降水中F^-、Cl^-、NO3^-、SO4^2- 测量不确定度的分析,找出导致不确定度的因素。对测量不确定度进行计算和评定,结果表明,影响其测量不确定度的主要因素是标准曲线精密度。