Responding to crises and disasters: the role of risk attitudes and risk perceptions

Discussions are taking place both in the United States and in Europe about how governments should respond to both disasters and crises, and how citizens' non-desirable behaviour might be managed with respect to such disasters. Here we examine the role that risk attitudes and risk perceptions play in decision making behaviour of individuals in times of crises and disasters and how knowledge about individual behaviour and its drivers may be helpful when developing policy. The proposed framework complements the existing literature, thereby further enriching the knowledge of crises and disaster management.     

Assessing Parameter Uncertainty of a Semi‐Distributed Hydrology Model for a Shallow Aquifer Dominated Environmental System

This paper examines the performance of a semi‐distributed hydrology model (i.e., Soil and Water Assessment Tool [SWAT]) using Sequential Uncertainty FItting (SUFI‐2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), parameter solution (ParaSol), and particle swarm optimization (PSO). We applied SWAT to the Waccamaw watershed, a shallow aquifer dominated Coastal Plain watershed in the Southeastern United States (U.S.). The model was calibrated (2003‐2005) and validated (2006‐2007) at two U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations, using significant parameters related to surface hydrology, hydrogeology, hydraulics, and physical properties. SWAT performed best during intervals with wet and normal antecedent conditions with varying sensitivity to effluent channel shape and characteristics. In addition, the calibration of all algorithms depended mostly on Manning's n‐value for the tributary channels as the surface friction resistance factor to generate runoff. SUFI‐2 and PSO simulated the same relative probability distribution tails to those observed at an upstream outlet, while all methods (except ParaSol) exhibited longer tails at a downstream outlet. The ParaSol model exhibited large skewness suggesting a global search algorithm was less capable of characterizing parameter uncertainty. Our findings provide insights regarding parameter sensitivity and uncertainty as well as modeling diagnostic analysis that can improve hydrologic theory and prediction in complex watersheds. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Experimental investigation on convection heat transfer characteristics of flat plate under environmental wind condition

By establishing wind tunnel and employing electrical heating method, the heat transfer characteristics of flat plate were investigated under environmental wind condition. Both the uniform and linear heat flux boundary conditions were adopted for comparison purpose. Besides, the impacts of heat flux q_wm, tilt angle α and wind incidence angle θ on heat transfer were explored in cases of windward and leeward facing positions. The local convection heat transfer coefficient h_cx and average convection Nusselt number Nu_cm were obtained. The results show that, when α is small, there are two maximum values of h_cx under linear heat flux boundary condition. As for Nu_cm, differences between the two boundary conditions seem indistinctive. At windward orientation, Nu_cm is not sensitive to α. While for leeward orientation, Nu_cm has a rapid decline progress with the increasing α, which indicates the tilt angle α is an important parameter to affect the heat transfer of plate. Finally, new correlations of Nu_cm have been developed, which were proven effective in engineering applications.     

Uncertainty of exposure assessment of consumers to pesticide residues derived from food consumed

The sources of quantitative and qualitative uncertainties of the exposure of a consumer to a pesticide residue are identified. The contribution of quantifiable uncertainties of input parameters of deterministic model to the combined uncertainty of the estimated exposure is shown with detailed calculation using the pesticide residue content of food consumed during two days. The daily intakes of bifenthrin residues calculated for the 60 kg bodyweight of the reporting person are 0.00257 mg/kgbw and 0.00281 mg/kgbw for day 1 and day 2, respectively with 27-28% combined uncertainty. The major contributors were fruits and whole meal bread. The contribution of the individual steps to the combined uncertainty depends on the particular food item. In general, the variability of recipes, estimation of the mass of consumed food, sampling, processing of raw commodities and analysis of pesticide residues influenced most, in decreasing order, the combined uncertainty of the estimated daily exposure.     

环境监测用正己烷气体标准样品的研制

采用称量法通过两步稀释制备了含量水平为1μmol/mol的氮气中正己烷气体标准样品,考察了气瓶内壁吸附作用、制备重现性、瓶内均匀性、时间稳定性等相关因素的影响,并将该正己烷气体标准样品与同类气体标准样品进行了比较。结果表明:该正己烷气体标准样品的最低使用压力为1 MPa,有效期为12个月(0~38℃),相对扩展不确定度(k=2)为2%;该正己烷气体标准样品的量值与同类标准样品具有可比性,可为相关环境监测工作提供技术支持。     

Do remediation experts have what it takes to explain empirical uncertainty?

Words matter in risk communication, and experts’ choice of words is critical when remediation risks are being explained to nonexperts. In risk communication studies, communication gaps between experts and nonexperts are investigated but there is lack of primary research. An Australian project addresses this shortcoming through research into communication about the risks of contaminated land remediation, and this paper provides some of its findings. Seventeen experts completed a questionnaire about the meaning of some scientific terms, and analysis found that they have capacity to improve communication through their selection and use of language. When experts undertake risk communication, the language they use may increase or reduce communication gaps. When the topic is uncertainty about health risks, communication gaps about the extent of uncertainty may reduce the effectiveness of social engagement, leading to unintended consequences such as cost overruns. This situation makes for a good case study since remediation is about benefit as well as risk, and communication about benefit, while desirable, may not always be achievable. The study suggests how to improve risk communication by exploring the accuracy, clarity, and depth of expert language. It identifies attributes of language that can bridge gaps in knowledge and understanding and characterizes them as integration mechanisms. These are defined as knowledge forms and mental processes that support cooperation between different epistemic communities to achieve mutually agreed outcomes. Two integration mechanisms are suggested. Bridging content addresses communication gaps through the selection of content (what knowledge is selected). Bridging process addresses communication gaps through the use of language (how knowledge is explained). Bridging content and bridging process can be expressed through cognitive and experiential platforms, or a blending of both, so whether words are positioned in the science‐based or mental model of risk communication, a utility value can be found in their quality, whether reflected by accuracy or the power to communicate meaning.     

The effect of experience on choosing where to go: an application to a choice experiment on forest recreation

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of experience on the choice of visits to forests in a stated discrete choice experiment. Recent literature has indicated that experiences with the environmental services valuated may increase the respondents' certainty in their choice of hypothetical alternatives. We apply two indicators of experiences: the number of visits and the number of different forests visited during the last year. Applying the generalized multinomial logit model, we find that an increase in the number of visits to forests makes respondents' choices more predictable. However, the number of different forests visited reduces the predictability of choices. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between respondents' experience of forest recreation and the self-reported choice certainty, controlling for respondents' social-demographics and other design characteristics. Finally, we show that self-reported choice certainty is positive correlated with the scale factor, as expected.     

How Grammatical Choice Shapes Media Representations of Climate (Un)certainty

Although mass media continue to play a key role in translating scientific uncertainty for public discourse, communicators of climate science are becoming increasingly aware of their own role in shaping scientific messages in the news. As an example of how future media research can provide relevant feedback to climate communicators, the present study examines the ways in which grammatical and word choices represent and construct uncertainty in news reporting about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Qualifying and hedging language and other “epistemic markers” are analyzed in four newspapers during 2001 and 2007: the New York Times and Wall Street Journal from the USA and El País and El Mundo from Spain. Though the US newspapers contained a higher density of epistemic markers and used more ambiguous grammatical constructs of uncertainty than the Spanish newspapers, all four media sources chose similar words when questioning the certainty around climate change. Moreover, the density of epistemic markers in each newspaper either remained the same or increased with time, despite ever-growing scientific agreement that human activities modify global climate. While the US newspapers increasingly adopted IPCC language to describe climate uncertainties, they also exhibited an emerging tendency to construct uncertainty by highlighting differences between IPCC reports or between scientific predictions and observations. The analysis thus helps identify articulations of uncertainty that will shape future media portrayals of climate science across varying cultural and national contexts.     

D-S证据理论在油库安全评价中的应用

油库系统复杂,各指标因素之间具有不确定性.证据理论具有数据融合、处理不确定因素等特点,已广泛用于专家决策、人工智能、目标识别等领域. 提出将该理论应用于油库安全评价中,应用该理论来处理因素之间的不确定性问题;运用证据融合准则研究多系统、多因素对评价对象的共同作用.实例表明,D-S证据理论是一种科学的安全评价方法,具有可行性与实用性.     

信息论方法在水资源系统工程中的应用

水资源系统工程是水资源科学与系统科学相互交叉形成的一门新兴综合性工程技术学科，在人口、资源、环境、经济与社会区域可持续发展战略研究中具有重要意义。其中的一个重要研究问题是如何有效挖掘实际水资源复杂系统中各种不确定性信息。为此。在阐述信息论基本概念和主要方法的基础上。对信息论方法在水资源系统工程中的应用研究按照水资源系统工程的理论框架进行了划分。详细论述了近年来信息论在水资源系统建模、优化、模拟、预测、评价、决策中的应用，探讨了信息论方法用于水资源系统工程中存在的问题和相应对策．展望了信息论方法在水资源系统工程中的应用前景，指出了建设基于信息论的水信息学学科的必要性。这些信息论方法在资源系统工程、环境系统工程和管理系统工程等应用系统工程研究中具有一定参考应用价值。