Modeling Streamflow and Water Quality Sensitivity to Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid‐21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid‐21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid‐21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30‐40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.     

Urban agriculture,civil interfaces and moving beyond difference: the experiences of plot holders in Dublin and Belfast

Recent literature suggests that a “shared politics of place” attained through joint activities fosters social integration and provides people with a means to practise co-operation [Baumann, G., 1996. Contesting culture: discourses of identity in multi-ethnic London. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; Sanjek, R., 1998. The future of us all: race & neighbourhood policies in New York City. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press; Sennett, R., 2012. Together: the rituals, pleasures and politics of cooperation. UK: Penguin]. Such a “shared politics of place” is most likely to occur in the context of public space conceptualised broadly as “the setting for everyday spatial behaviour of individuals and communities, emphasizing ordinary activities of citizens” [Lownsbrough, H. and Beunderman, J., 2007. Equally spaced? Public space and interaction between diverse communities. London: Demos, p. 8]. Here we explore one element of such public space – urban agriculture sites – with a view to identifying the extent to which a “shared politics of place” can be created and nurtured among the cultivating citizenry. The paper draws on data collected on allotment gardening sites in two urban contexts: Dublin (Ireland) and Belfast (Northern Ireland) over the period 2009–2013. We demonstrate the centrality of allotment cultivation to the generation of solidarity, mutuality and trust among participating citizens. Individuals engaging in allotment gardening in both Dublin and Belfast create and sustain civil interfaces – dismantling barriers, exchanging knowledge, challenging stereotypes, generating empathy and getting on with the business of simply getting on with their lives. The modus operandi of allotment gardening is predicated on a willingness to disregard social and ethno-national categorisations while on site. This is not to deny that such differences exist and persist, but allotments offer a “space of potential” where those differences are, at least for a time, rendered less salient.     

道路建设对成都市热岛效应的影响

热岛效应是城市气候最显著的特征之一。土地利用方式及土地覆盖的改变,如城市化和道路建设是导致热岛现象的重要原因之一。然而目前针对道路属性（道路密度及类型）对城市热岛效应的影响研究还较缺乏。本研究运用2012年成都市不同时次（冬夏季）的遥感数据及城市道路交通专题图,运用3S技术探讨道路密度对城市热岛效应的影响以及不同类型道路对城市热岛效应的热贡献。研究表明：（1）成都市热岛效应明显,市区地表平均温度显著高于郊区且热岛强度呈现夏强（3~4℃）冬弱（2.5~3℃）、夜强昼弱的特征。日间城市热岛效应呈现多热中心的分布模式,但冬夏季热岛中心位置不同。夏季日间热中心位于城市的西南部和中东北部,最高可达32.66℃,而冬季日间城市的西南部地表温度较高且热中心主要分布于城市边界地区,地表温度超过16℃。无论冬夏,夜间城市热岛效应均呈现环状分布特征,即从城市边缘到中心,地表温度逐渐升高,夏季城乡地表温差高达4.37℃而冬季达到2.82℃。（2）成都市区道路呈现“圈层型＋辐射型”分布模式,道路密度与道路的分布有关,城市南部及西南部的道路密度高于北部区域。（3）无论冬夏,道路密度与地表温度正相关,但两者相关性呈现昼弱夜强的特征,其中夜间相关系数达到0.5左右。对热效应贡献度指数、热单元权重指数、区域热单元权重指数3个指标的分析都表明无论冬夏、无论昼夜,市区分布面积最广的三级道路对城市热岛效应的热贡献最大,其热效应贡献度指数均在95%以上,其次是二级道路,各项热效应贡献度指数为45%~80%。本研究结果将有助于未来城市建设和道路规划,并为缓解城市热岛效应提供理论支持。     

淮南市城区地表灰尘重金属分布特征及生态风险评价

城市地表灰尘中重金属会对人体健康和生态环境产生危害,为研究城市中不同功能区地表灰尘重金属的含量和潜在生态危害水平,以典型煤炭资源型城市淮南市的地表灰尘为研究对象,采集工业区、商业区、交通区、文教区、居住区和公园绿地等6种功能用地共40个点位的地表灰尘。采用电感耦合等离子体发射光谱（ICP-OES）和DMA-80直接测汞仪测定Zn、Pb、Cu、Cr、Cd、Ni、Co、V、Hg的含量,分析其在不同功能区地表灰尘中的分布特征、相关性及可能的来源;并应用潜在生态危害指数法对重金属在不同功能区的潜在生态危害进行评价。结果表明：1）淮南市地表灰尘中 Zn、Pb、Cu、Cr、Cd、Ni、Co、V、Hg的平均质量分数分别是202.59、74.63、62.74、110.69、0.57、35.82、12.18、50.95和0.105 mg·kg-1,其中Zn、Pb、Cu、Cr、Cd、Ni、Hg的平均含量分别是淮南市土壤背景值的3.47、3.17、2.04、1.21、9.50、1.12、2.56倍,是中国土壤背景值的2.73、2.87、2.78、1.81、5.88、1.33、1.62倍。2）9种重金属中,Zn和V的含量在不同功能区分布相对均匀,其他重金属在不同功能区含量均表现出较明显的空间异质性。3）不同功能区中,Zn、Pb、Cu、Ni、Co、V、Hg的平均含量在工业区最高,Cr 和 Cd 的平均含量在交通区最高。4）不同重金属的相关性表明,Zn、Pb、Cu、Cd、Ni 等5种元素有同一来源,Co 和 V 有同一来源。5）单项潜在生态危害系数大小为 Cd〉Hg〉〉Pb〉Cu〉Ni〉Co〉Zn〉Cr〉V。不同功能区9种重金属复合生态危害均处于强生态危害水平（300≤RI〈600）,其中工业区和交通区潜在生态危害水平最高。     

包膜材料对土壤酶活性的影响

以自然资源＂水冬瓜果油＂为包膜材料,利用盆栽试验,共设5个处理,研究在有菊花吸收养分的情况下,水冬瓜（Idesia polycarpa maxim.var.vestita dies）油包膜材料在土壤中的降解性能及对土壤酶活性的影响。结果表明：水冬瓜油包膜材料随土壤含水量的增加,降解速率加快。种植菊花的土壤过氧化氢酶、蔗糖酶、脲酶活性也呈现先上升、后下降的趋势。在土壤含水量为30%时,包膜材料半衰期只有62 d;在处理3（果油85%＋调理剂15%）中,土壤过氧化氢酶、土壤蔗糖酶和脲酶数量增加最多。因此,水冬瓜果油85%＋调理剂15%和土壤含水量30%,有利于土壤酶活性的提高,从而加快包膜材料的降解速度。     

The city as a refuge for insect pollinators

Research on urban insect pollinators is changing views on the biological value and ecological importance of cities. The abundance and diversity of native bee species in urban landscapes that are absent in nearby rural lands evidence the biological value and ecological importance of cities and have implications for biodiversity conservation. Lagging behind this revised image of the city are urban conservation programs that historically have invested in education and outreach rather than programs designed to achieve high‐priority species conservation results. We synthesized research on urban bee species diversity and abundance to determine how urban conservation could be repositioned to better align with new views on the ecological importance of urban landscapes. Due to insect pollinators’ relatively small functional requirements—habitat range, life cycle, and nesting behavior—relative to larger mammals, we argue that pollinators put high‐priority and high‐impact urban conservation within reach. In a rapidly urbanizing world, transforming how environmental managers view the city can improve citizen engagement and contribute to the development of more sustainable urbanization.     

Growth in urban extent and allometric analysis of West African cities

Urban area expansion is happening at much faster rates in Asian and African cities than elsewhere in the world. This study uses multi-temporal Landsat images to map the urban extent of six small to large cities in West Africa at four different time steps from the early 1970s–2010. The selected cities are Kumasi of Ghana, Daloa of Cote d’Ivoire, Abuja and Kano in Nigeria, Kindia of Guinea, and Ouagadougou of Burkina Faso. All cities revealed significant urban growth in both urban area and population; however, it was apparent that there was a lot of variability in urban area development. Exponential urban growth rates in the cities were measured as ranging between 0.026 and 0.077, with allometric scaling factors matching those of other countries.     

天津市城市扬尘及土壤尘单颗粒质谱特征

为探究城市扬尘及不同类型的土壤尘单颗粒质谱特征,使用SPAMS（单颗粒气溶胶质谱仪）对天津城市扬尘及不同类型土壤尘（菜地、果园、林地、农田）进行分析.结果表明:天津城市扬尘粒径在0.5~1.0 μm之间的占比较高;4种土壤尘在不同粒径段的分布略有差异,整体而言小粒径段（0.2~1.0 μm）占比低于大粒径段（1.0~2.0 μm）,说明土壤尘更易分布在大粒径段.在小粒径段,天津城市扬尘颗粒含有更多的碳组分及硫酸盐,大粒径段含有较多的金属、氯、硝酸盐、磷酸盐及硅酸盐组分.与城市扬尘相比,土壤尘中23Na+、46NO₂-峰强显著降低,39K+、35Cl-、42CNO-峰强增高,通过其峰强比值分布可将城市扬尘与土壤尘明显区分.与城市扬尘相比,土壤尘中含碳颗粒显著减少,同时出现钾类颗粒.城市扬尘作为一种混合源,含碳颗粒可能受多种排放源（机动车、燃煤等）影响,而土壤尘中钾类颗粒可能与农作物施肥有关.两种源类含27Al+、26CN-、35Cl-、42CNO-、46NO₂-、76SiO₃-、79PO₃-的颗粒占比均高于50%,其中40Ca+、46NO₂-和62NO₃-颗粒在天津城市扬尘中占比更高,76SiO₃-颗粒在土壤尘中占比更高,表明天津城市扬尘中更多的颗粒含有钙和硝酸盐组分,土壤尘中含硅酸盐颗粒较多.与机动车尾气、生物质燃烧等排放的颗粒物相比,天津城市扬尘及土壤尘中含97HSO₄-颗粒占比较低,表明天津城市扬尘及土壤尘颗粒中含有更少的硫酸盐,可作为将天津城市扬尘、土壤尘与其他源类区分的指标.      

兰州主城区大气颗粒物质量浓度及健康风险

分别在2013年春季3月23日~3月29日和冬季12月15日~12月21日对兰州市主城区5个采样点进行采样,每天每个采样点采集8个样品,共采集有效样品560个.通过实验室分析和重金属健康风险评价,结果显示：兰州市主城区≤ 10μm颗粒物中,主要分布在5.8~10.0μm （春、冬季）、1.1~3.3μm （春季）和0.65~3.3μm （冬季）范围内,Pb在PM_3.3~4.7（一级支气管）中的质量浓度最大,分别为0.2352ug/m³（春季）和0.2177ug/m³（冬季）,Cd作为一种致癌重金属在PM_9.0~5.8、PM_4.7~1.1均被检出.儿童、成年男性、成年女性的非致癌风险值HZ在春季和冬季分别为0.842、0.360、0.345和0.842、0.326、0.361,低于1不存在非致癌的风险,致癌风险值RIS在10^-6~10^-4的范围内,不存在致癌风险,但儿童RIS值较高,对儿童的健康状况的影响,应受到社会群体的重视.     

基于BP神经网络的三峡库区土壤侵蚀强度模拟

降雨侵蚀力变化是一复杂过程,其变化存在一定的随机波动性,土壤侵蚀是三峡库区生态环境脆弱最主要的影响因素之一,查明库区土壤侵蚀强度的演化过程及未来趋势是库区生态文明建设过程中急需解决的关键科学问题。论文基于三峡库区1990年侵蚀降雨特征,利用BP神经网络对2010年75个站点降雨侵蚀力进行模拟、验证,预测2030年75个站点降雨侵蚀力。选取2030年预测结果中位于库区周围的27个站点,结合2030年库区自然增长、生态保护情景下土地利用模拟数据,使用RUSLE计算2030年土壤侵蚀强度。结果表明：1）2010年库区降雨侵蚀力模拟相对误差为15%,测试样本数据相对误差为14.67%,预测相对误差为19.65%,NE系数为0.85,说明BP神经网络对库区降雨侵蚀力具有良好模拟效果;2）2010年库区土壤侵蚀强度的Kappa指数为0.75,计算结果能满足模拟与预测需求;3）在土地利用不变情况下,2030年库区轻度、中度侵蚀面积均有所增加,微度及强烈以上侵蚀面积均呈减少趋势,且侵蚀强度转变中的58%来源于相邻侵蚀强度,跨侵蚀等级区的较少;4）在降雨侵蚀力不变情况下,自然增长、生态保护情景下未来土地利用变化所导致的土壤侵蚀均呈下降趋势,后者下降的趋势更为明显;5）在降雨侵蚀力及土地利用均变化的情况下,自然增长、生态保护情景下土壤侵蚀均呈下降趋势。