Validation of Urban Emission Inventories

Two emission validation methods are presented. The first method focuses on the precision of the emission factors and the accuracy of modelled traffic flows. Emission factors derived from the COPERT II methodology are compared with on-board emission measurements and modelled traffic flow rates are compared with observations. The second validation method focuses on the completeness of the inventory, i.e. coverage of all sources. The method compares measured pollutant fluxes in the urban plume with the downwind transported and dispersed emissions integrated over plume width and mixing height. Both methods seem to indicate that traffic emission factors used in the urban emission inventories show large uncertainties. Besides the lack of measurement precision this is mainly induced by external influence factors like driving behaviour and vehicle maintenance.     

Ecological monitoring of urban groups of stray dogs: An example of the city of petrozavodsk

The results of the census of stray dogs and data on their territorial distribution in the city of Petrozavodsk are reported. The population density of these animals has been found to vary within the urban area, depending mainly on the availability of secluded areas to live in and on population control by municipal services.     

基于HR/CFD技术的城市汽车尾气扩散规律研究

为研究城市空间结构对汽车尾气扩散规律,根据高分辨率遥感影像建立了某城市核心区域几何模型。以当地常年气象风向作为重要的边界条件之一,应用CFD多相流技术,模拟了十字交叉口车辆队列怠速等候35,45,55 s时的尾气扩散过程,并对45 s时4个监测点的体积分数进行了实测,最后,通过建筑高度优化,降低了该区域的尾气含量。以上研究结果表明:在空间狭小区域,近地空间CO体积分数达1.0×10-7,与研究域平均体积分数相差100倍以上,说明城市空间结构对尾气扩散影响较大,仿真所揭示的规律与实测吻合。建筑设计时应结合当地气象风向和风速,应设计一定的建筑高度梯度,可以促使污浊气体迅速扩散至远地空间。     

A forecast analysis on world population and urbanization process

The continuous growth of world population and the intensification of urbanization process create a challenge to environment quality and sustainable development around the world. In this paper I tried to conduct a forecast analysis of near-future urbanization related population growth worldwide, based on recent demographic trends. Such an analysis can provide important insights into the prospects for changes in the size and composition of world population and in urbanization process. Optimal polynomial functions were used to fit historical trajectories of population dynamics, and the detailed forecasts of the population mainly over the period 2010–2030 were conducted and analyzed. If the past pattern continues, world total population would increase to 7.94–8.33 billion in 2030 and the annual growth is expected to continually decline in the forecast period. Global total population would stop increasing during the period 2050–2060 and would not exceed 9.5 billion in the future. The total population of Africa, Asia, Oceania, South America, North & Central America would separately increase to 1.35–1.41, 4.86–5.65, 0.04–0.05, 0.44–0.45, and 0.71–0.72 billion in 2030. Europe’s total population is forecast to decline to 0.64–0.67 billion in 2030. World’s rural population is expected to grow to the maximum during the period 2015–2020 and would greatly decline after that period. Global rural population would reach 3.12–3.41 billion in 2030. Rural population in Asia and Africa is estimated to increase and achieve the maximum around 2025 and decline thereafter. For other regions, the rural population would continually decline in the forecast period. Urban population in the world would continually grow and reach 4.72–5.00 billion in 2030, an increase of 48.6–57.8%. However the annual growth of urban population is expected to increase to the maximum (6.86 million/year) during the period 2020–2025 and then decline in the following years. Urban population is projected to continually grow in all regions excepting Europe. Europe’s urban population is expected to decline in the period 2010–2030. Urbanization process worldwide, represented by the ratio urban population versus total population (RUT) and the ratio rural population versus urban population, is expected to continue during the period 2010–2030. The RUT of the world is projected to reach 0.5 before 2010 and would continue to increase in the forecast period. Global RUT is estimated to reach 0.56 in 2030. However, the regional patterns of urbanization process would be diverse. Europe’s RUT is estimated to continually decline in the forecast period and reach 0.68 in 2030. The RUT for Africa and Caribbean would continually increase before 2030, while the RUTs for Asia and South America are estimated to achieve their maximums around 2025 and decline in the following years. Oceania and North & Central America would thoroughly realize urbanization (≈1) during the periods 2020–2025 and 2025–2030. The expansion of world population and urbanization will continually exert a stronger stress to environment quality and sustainable development in a near future. However we may expect this situation would start to change from mid-21st century after total population has achieved its maximum. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

城市边界土地增值收益之经济学分析——兼论土地征收中的农民利益保护

经济发展使得城市增长具有必然性。而城市增长又会带来城市内外特定区位土地价格的增加。城市边界区土地价格具有自身的特点。从动态的城市地价模型分析来看．其增值不仅来自于外部性作用，还得益于城市的扩张。城市的扩张有两种方式：一是由于城市化和收入的增加导致城市地租曲线整体向外平移；二是即使人口保持不变，但由于交通的改善使得城市地租曲线逆时针旋转。不能以农业地价来定量边界区土地价格。因为该区土地增值不仅仅来自于外部性，农民具有参与增值分割的权利。应该重新建立土地征收补偿的价格体系．保护农民的合法权利。     

Economic Analysis of CO2 Emission Trends in China

Climate change is one of hot spots all around the world. China, the second biggest CO₂ emitter, is facing increasingly severe pressure to reduce CO₂ emission. The article first describes Kaya Identity and its policy implications. Second, it uses the modified Kaya Identity and makes decomposition without residues on CO₂ emission during the period 1971-2005. Taking into account the changes of macroeconomic background, it conducts a detailed analysis in terms of CO₂ emission trend from 4^th Five Year Plan through 10^th Five Year Plan. The decomposition results indicate that economic development and increase in population are major driving forces, and that improvement in energy efficiency contributes to the reduction of CO₂ emission, and that decarbonization in primary energy structure is also an important strategic choice. Finally, the article stresses that in CO₂ order to realize the binding target of 20% reduction in GDP energy intensity during the 11^th Five Year Plan, China should speed up the readjustment of the industrial structure and energetically develop the energy-efficient technologies and clean fuel technology, which will effectively promote the country to reduce CO₂ emission and contribute to the mitigation of climate change.     

石油野外作业工人体力劳动强度分级调查

据ＧＢ３８６９—８３标准对江汉油田测量、地震、钻井、井下四类野外作业３４名工人、２４个工种进行了体力劳动强度分级调查，其结果：测量作业为Ⅰ～Ⅱ级；钻井作业Ⅱ级占５／８，Ⅲ级占１／４；井下作业Ⅲ级占２／３；地震作业Ⅲ、Ⅳ级各占４／９、２／９。说明前两类基本属中等强度劳动，后两类大部分属重强度劳动。     

RUNOFF AND SEDIMENT YIELD UNDER GRAZING IN FOOTHILLS FESCUE GRASSLANDS OF ALBERTA1

ABSTRACT: Grazing can have a profound impact on infiltration and thus runoff and erosion. The objectives of this study were to quantify the effects of select grazing systems on rainfall and snowmelt induced runoff and sediment yield from sloped areas of the foothills fescue grasslands of Alberta, Canada. The effects of two grazing intensities (heavy and very heavy) for two durations (short duration and continuous throughout the growing season) were compared to an ungrazed control between June 1988 and April 1991. Runoff was measured using 1-rn² runoff frames and collection bucket systems. Sediment yields were then determined on samples from the collected runoff. Snowmelt was the dominant source of runoff. Snowmelt runoff was higher from the heavily grazed areas than from the very heavily grazed areas, due to the higher standing vegetation which accumulated snow in the former areas. Sediment yields as a result of snowmelt were generally low in all areas. Only a few summer storms caused runoff. Runoff volumes and sediment yields from summer rainstorms were low, due to low rainfall and to generally dry antecedent soil moisture conditions. The greatest risk of summer runoff, and thus sediment yield, appears to occur in August.     

OFF-LINE STORMWATER DETENTION SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: This paper looks at the use of off-line detention systems as a means of stormwater management. Conventional detention basins are typically designed and built as in-line systems in which all runoff is directed to the basin. Off-line systems are designed so that only a portion of the runoff is directed to the basin. Several simulation experiments were run to examine the behavior of in-line and off-line systems designed to reduce the peak flow from a developed area to the pre-development level. The results demonstrate that off-line systems require considerably less storage than in-line systems to achieve the same management goal. The results also show that off-line and in-line systems have significantly different flow-duration characteristics with the off-line system generally producing lower flows over longer periods. Unfortunately, off-line systems may exacerbate downstream flooding problems, especially when used in the upper portions of a watershed. Nevertheless, an off-line system can be an alternative to in-line detention in many cases.     

洞庭湖区城镇体系建设研究

洞庭湖区是国内重要的商品粮猪基地。从城市地理学和区域地理学的角度探讨洞庭湖区城镇体系的建设问题,就湖区城镇的规模体系,职能体系和空间体系３个方面展开了专门分析。在城镇等级体系建设方面,应着重加强其中心化趋势和有序性。强调中心城市对于中小城镇的带动作用,科学地确定在不同阶段较大城市的发展规模,形成大中小相结合,结构合理的城镇等级系统。在城市职能体系建设方面,应扬长避短,突出特色,强调产业结构的趋异和