Breeding site choice fails to explain interannual associations of female grey seals

Consistent, widespread fine-scale preferences for breeding sites may favour the emergence of intrasexual associations and hence sociality. Pairwise association was defined for a terrestrially breeding phocid seal in which intraseasonal colony mixing is limited and mothers spend only 3 weeks ashore breeding. Interannual associations may occur between pairs of breeding female grey seals at North Rona, Scotland because of pupping site fidelity, 90% return rates and limited variability in parturition dates that individual mothers show. Associations can occur when mothers are found together irrespective of location, or because of joint preferences for locations. Mothers were sedentary and were unlikely to interact if they are separated by >20 m. Using spatial and temporal association criteria, 160 of 176 of known mothers had intraseasonal associations with at least one other mother, with 14 of 126 (11.1%) of associations repeated in 2 years. The likelihood of female association in 2 years as a result of site fidelity, parturition date variation and pupping site quality was modelled. Interannual association between mothers that changed their pupping sites by up to the median observed pupping site fidelity (<40 m) was indistinguishable from our models predictions. However, the number of mothers that showed interannual association after displacements of >40 m from their previous years pupping sites was almost five times greater than the model predicted. We conclude that active association between adult female grey seals is not determined solely by habitat preference, and argue that examination of simple sociality in temporarily aggregating species can contribute significantly to socioecological models of social evolution.Communicated by F. Trillmich     

Assemblage stability in stream fishes: A review

We quantified the stability of nine stream fish assemblages by calculating coefficients of variation of population size for assemblage members. Coefficients of variation were high and averaged over 96%; indicating that most assemblages were quite variable. Coefficient of variation (CV) estimates were not significantly affected by: (1) years of study, (2) mean abundance, (3) familial classification, or (4) mean interval between collections. We also detected minor regional differences in CVs. The high variability exhibited by many stream fish assemblages suggests that it may be difficult to detect the effects of anthropogenic disturbances using population data alone. Consequently, we urge managers to exercise caution in the evaluation of the effects of these disturbances. More long-term studies of the ecological characteristics of undisturbed stream fish assemblages are needed to provide a benchmark against which disturbed systems can be compared. We suggest that CVs are a better estimator of population/assemblage stability, than either Kendall's W or the standard deviation of the logarithms of numerical censuses. This conclusion is based on the following reasons. First, CVs scale population variation by the mean and, hence, more accurately measure population variability. Second, this scaling permits the comparison of populations with different mean abundances. Finally, the interpretation of CV values is less ambiguous than either of the aforementioned metrics.     

深圳市酸雨时空变异特征

根据深圳市2009—2013年酸雨监测数据,统计并分析深圳市酸雨强度与频率、时空变异特征和降水c(SO2-4)/c(NO-3)比值特征变化。结果表明:雨量的大小及其出现次数与酸雨出现次数呈负相关;2009—2013年间6个行政区酸雨量呈现"V"形变化趋势,且2011年达到最低值;酸雨危害较严重的是盐田区、南山区和福田区,其次是宝安区和龙岗区,危害较轻的是罗湖区。     

城郊农田土壤Pb、Cd的空间变异与评价研究

为了研究城郊区域农田土壤重金属的空间分布特征与质量状况,采用ArcGIS缓冲分析和地统计分析模型分析了长沙城郊农田土壤Pb、Cd的空间变异规律;运用单因子评价法对土壤Pb、Cd的质量状况进行了现状评价;采用Hakanson法对农田土壤Pb、Cd进行了潜在生态风险评价。结果表明,土壤Pb、Cd含量大部分处于Ⅰ级水平（背景状况）,但两种元素均存在不同程度的累积,尤其是Cd的累积程度更为突出。土壤Pb、Cd的平均含量在20km以内、20～40、40～60 km的缓冲区由近至远均呈下降趋势,表明城市人类活动在一定空间尺度内对城郊区农田土壤Pb、Cd含量有较大影响;通过半变异函数分析,土壤Pb、Cd在较大范围内存在空间相关性,Pb和Cd的空间变异均是由结构性因素和随机性因素共同作用引起的。Pb、Cd的单项累积指数和潜在生态危害系数均呈现出近郊>远郊>中郊的趋势,各区域土壤Cd的潜在生态危害趋势较土壤Pb更明显,城市近郊南北方向区域及远郊局部工矿聚集区是农田土壤Pb、Cd的累积程度和污染风险较高的区域     

Stream Temperature Surges Under Urbanization and Climate Change: Data,Models, and Responses1

ABSTRACT: Multiple anthropogenic stressors, including increased watershed imperviousness, destruction of the riparian vegetation, increased siltation, and changes in climate, will impact streams over the coming century. These stressors will alter water temperature, thus influencing ecological processes and stream biota. Quantitative tools are needed to predict the magnitude and direction of altered thermal regimes. Here, empirical relationships were derived to complement a simple model of in‐stream temperature [developed by Caissie et al. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 25 (1998) 250; Journal of Hydrology 251 (2001) 14], including seasonal temperature shifts linked to land use, and temperature surges linked to localized rainstorms; surges in temperature averaged about 3.5°C and dissipated over about 3 h. These temperature surges occurred frequently at the most urbanized sites (up to 10% of summer days) and could briefly increase maximum temperature by >7°C. The combination of empirical relationships and model show that headwater streams may be more pervasively impacted by urbanization than by climate change, although the two stressors reinforce each other. A profound community shift, from common cold and coolwater species to some of the many warmwater species currently present in smaller numbers, may be expected, as shown by a count of days on which temperature exceeds the “good growth” range for coldwater species.     

Sensitivity Analysis of Best Management Practices Under Climate Change Scenarios1

Woznicki, Sean A. and A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, 2011. Sensitivity Analysis of Best Management Practices Under Climate Change Scenarios. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 90‐112. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00598.x Abstract: Understanding the sensitivity of best management practices (BMPs) implementation as climate changes will be important for water resources management. The objective of this study was to determine how the sensitivity of BMPs performance vary due to changes in precipitation, temperature, and CO₂ using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loads on an annual and monthly basis were estimated before and after implementation of eight agricultural BMPs for different climate scenarios. Downscaled climate change data were obtained from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model for the Tuttle Creek Lake watershed in Kansas and Nebraska. Using a relative sensitivity index, native grass, grazing management, and filter strips were determined to be the most sensitive for all climate change scenarios, whereas porous gully plugs, no‐tillage, and conservation tillage were the least sensitive on an annual basis. The monthly sensitivity analysis revealed that BMP sensitivity varies largely on a seasonal basis for all climate change scenarios. The results of this research suggest that the majority of agricultural BMPs tested in this study are significantly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, caution should be exercised in the decision‐making processes.     

基于遥感影像的近30年西宁市热岛效应时空变化

利用1987?—?2015年多个时相的Landsat卫星影像及同期气象和社会经济数据,结合多年建成区边界,利用单窗算法反演了地表温度,结合热场变异指数定量分析了西宁市城市建成区热岛强度时空演化特征,探讨了其与城市绿化程度、车辆数等要素的关系,提出了城市化进程中城市热岛效应的调控措施。研究结果显示:(1)西宁市夏季表现为"热岛"效应,冬季为"冷岛"效应;(2)西宁市热岛效应强度在时间序列有三个节点,2000年以前西宁市夏季和冬季白天各个热岛区面积变化不明显,2000年以后热岛区面积,尤其是较强热岛区面积和中热岛区面积都出现迅速增加的趋势,2003年热岛区面积达到最高,2003年以后热岛区面积渐渐回落,2011年以后又增强;(3)夏季"热岛"区面积变化趋势和冬季"冷岛"区面积变化趋势一致,且与建成区变化一致。     

土动力参数变异性对深软场地地表地震动参数的影响

采用等效线性化技术考虑土的动力非线性特性,利用一维波传法及SHAKE91软件计算水平成层场地的地震反应,研究了土的动剪模量比和阻尼比与剪应变幅值的关系曲线、土层剪切波速的变异性对深软场地地表峰值加速度及其反应谱的影响。结果表明:土的动剪模量比均值加1倍标准差与阻尼比均值减1倍标准差、动剪模量比均值减1倍标准差与阻尼比均值加1倍标准差的组合对地表峰值加速度的影响最为显著,但对地表加速度反应谱形状的影响不大;土层剪切波速15%的变异性对地表加速度反应谱形状有较大影响;土层剪切波速的变异性对地表加速度和反应谱的影响比动剪模量比和阻尼比变异性的影响更为显著。