Changes in vegetation persistence across global savanna landscapes, 1982–2010

We present a global analysis of the changing face of vegetation persistence in savanna ecosystems by boreal seasons. We utilized nearly 30 years of monthly normalized difference vegetation index data in an innovative time-series approach and developed associated statistical significance tests, making the application of continuous vegetation metrics both more rigorous and more useful to research. We found that 8,000,000–11,000,000 km² of savanna have experienced significant vegetation decline during each season, while 20,000,000–23,000,000 km² have experienced an increase in vegetation persistence during each season, relative to the baseline period (1982–1985). In addition, with the exception of the March–April–May season, which is mixed, the pattern of significant vegetation persistence in the Northern Hemisphere is almost exclusively positive, while it is negative in the Southern Hemisphere. This finding highlights the increasing vulnerability of the Southern Hemisphere savanna landscapes; either resulting from changing precipitation regimes (e.g., southern Africa) or agricultural pressures and conversions (e.g., South America).     

Climate Change and Floodplain Delineation in Two Southern Quebec River Basins1

Laforce, Serge, Marie‐Claude Simard, Robert Leconte, and François Brissette, 2011. Climate Change and Floodplain Delineation in Two Southern Quebec River Basins. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):785‐799. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00560.x Abstract: A methodology is presented for mapping the flooded extent of rivers under projected climate change. The methodology follows a top‐down modeling approach, where future climate projections generated by global climate models (GCMs) are downscaled to the watershed scale and used as input to hydrological and hydrodynamic models for predicting future river flows and associated open water levels. A range of possible future climate responses are taken into account, allowing quantification of flood‐mapping uncertainties resulting from GCM structure and greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES). Probabilistic projections of future flood zones are developed by assuming that all GCMs and GHGES be equally weighted. The proposed methodology was applied to two river basins located in southern Quebec, Canada, for the time horizons 2020 and 2080. Twenty‐ and hundred‐year floods were computed and corresponding flood maps have been produced. Results indicate that there is a general trend toward an increased spring peak discharge for the Châteauguay River Basin and a decrease for the du Nord River Basin at the 2020 horizon. A less obvious trend was observed for the 2080 horizon, some GCM‐GHGES producing an increase in spring peak flows, whereas others would result in a less severe spring flood. These uncertainties in flood flows have cascaded into uncertainties in the corresponding flooded extent and represented as probabilistic flood maps.     

Spatio-temporal modelling of ground vegetation development in mountain spruce forests

More complex models of forest ecosystems are required to understand how land-cover changes can impact vegetation dynamics and spatial pattern. In order to document spatio-temporal modelling abilities, the observations conducted in the declined climax mountain Norway spruce forest during the recovery period (1995-2006) are used for simulation and spatial analysis in the GIS environment. The developed spatio-temporal model is used for simulation of forest vegetation dynamics in a mountain spruce forest in the framework of regeneration processes after stress from air pollution. In order to explore the spatial and temporal phenomena of regeneration processes, the spatio-temporal model is based on a large set of ordinary differential equations that solve dynamic processes in sets of microsites arranged in grids for each ground vegetation species and each age group of Norway spruce seedlings. The spatial extent of the explored site is composed of a set of 50 × 50 microsites. Each microsite is represented by a square with dimensions of 1 m × 1 m. The presented simulation studies are mainly focused on seedlings from the seed year 1992, in order to explore the longest monitored time series of survival. It is based on exponential growth models that are related to the environmental conditions for each microsite. The canopy gaps based on estimates of the local crown projected area, the soil type layer, and the dominant grass density are used to provide case simulation studies. The first case study simulates the influence of microsite positions in relation to the local tree crown projections on the survival of spruce seedlings. It is assumed that the density of the trees is the main factor that determines the light and heat supply to the ground level of the Norway spruce seedlings. The second case study extends the previous study to include terms that determine the growth ratio in dependence on the crown projection area. The third case study provides further extensions in order to simulate growth ratio relations to the local soil type. The fourth case study demonstrates the local influence of the dominant grasses, such as Avenella flexuosa and Calamagrostis villosa, on the natural regeneration of Norway spruce. Starting from the conditions at the sites before the recovery period, the case simulation studies are able to project the short-term succession for a regeneration decade and the approximate long-term development. In addition to the standard simulation procedures based on solution of ordinary differential equations, spatio-temporal modelling in the GIS environment is able to provide spatial data management, analysis and visualization of the data.     

Harvesting the sun: New estimations of the maximum population of planet Earth

The maximum population, also called Earth's carrying capacity, is the maximum number of people that can live on the food and other resources available on planet Earth. Previous investigations estimated the maximum carrying capacity as large as about 1 trillion people under the assumption that photosynthesis is the limiting process. Here we use a present state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model with managed planetary land surface, Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL), to calculate the yields of the most productive crops on a global 0.5° × 0.5° grid. Using the 2005 crop distribution the model predicts total harvested calories that are sufficient for the nutrition of 11.4 billion people. We define scenarios where humankind uses the whole land area for agriculture, saves the rain forests and the boreal evergreen forests or cultivates only pasture to feed animals. Every scenario is run in an extreme version with no allowance for urban and recreational needs and in two soft versions with a certain area per person for non-agricultural use. We find that there are natural limits of the maximum carrying capacity which are independent of any increase in agricultural productivity, if non-agricultural land use is accounted for. Using all land planet Earth can sustain 282 billion people. The save-forests-scenario yields 150 billion people. The scenario that cultivates only pasture to feed animals yields 96 billion people. Nevertheless, we should always have in mind that all our calculated numbers for the carrying capacity refer to extreme scenarios where humankind may only vegetate on this planet. Our numbers are considerably higher than the general median estimate of upper bounds of human population found in the literature in the order of 10 billion.     

矿化垃圾湿地处理畜禽养殖废水的研究

采用序批式进水方式,在m(固)∶V(液)=1∶20及水力负荷1.25 m3.m-2.d-1条件下,研究种植旱伞草(Cyperus alternifolius)、芦苇(Phragmites australis)、美人蕉(Canna indica)和菖蒲(Acorus calamus)4种植物的矿化垃圾填料湿地对畜禽养殖废水的处理效果。持续运行90 d的结果表明,矿化垃圾填料湿地床对CODCr、SS、NH4+-N和TP的平均去除率分别为41.3%～52.5%、55.2%～72.1%4、4.2%～76.7%和40.1%～68.0%。不同植物种类对去除率的影响小,与无植物空白相比约有10百分点的变化,主要被矿化垃圾填料自身特性所掩盖。矿化垃圾填料硝化能力强,导致硝酸盐氮(NO3--N)的累积高达数十mg.L-1,并导致TN去除率偏低,仅为41.6%～45.9%。构建了150 cm高的矿化垃圾填料柱进行反硝化脱氮,在水力负荷0.30 m3.m-2.d-1条件下运行90 d期间内,距柱面120 cm处NO3--N去除率在ρ(NO3--N)约为20和40 mg.L-1的水质条件下均可达97%以上。     

A process mapping model for calculating indirect costs of workplace accidents

This article follows an earlier one in which four criteria and four bases for the development of an indirect-cost calculation model adapted to the accuracy requirements and time constraints of workplace decision-makers were established. A two-level model for calculating indirect costs using process mapping of the organizational response to a workplace accident is presented. The model is based on data collected in interviews with those employees in charge of occupational health and safety in 10 companies of various sizes in different industry sectors. This model is the first to use process mapping to establish the indirect costs of workplace accidents. The approach allows easy identification of the duration and frequency of actions taken by stakeholders when a workplace accident occurs, facilitates the collection of the information needed to calculate indirect costs and yields a usable, precise result. A simple graphic representation of an organization's accident processes helps the user understand each accident's cost components, allowing the identification and reduction of inefficiencies in the overall process. Impact on Industry: By facilitating data collection and shortening the time needed to assess indirect costs of workplace accidents, this indirect cost calculation tool is better suited for workplace use than those currently available.     

2000年以来内蒙古生长季旱情变化遥感监测及其影响因素分析

为探讨内蒙古旱情状况及其影响因素,利用MODIS 16 d合成的植被指数产品数据MOD13A2和8 d合成的地表温度产品数据MOD11A2构建Ts-NDVI特征空间,计算温度植被干旱指数（TVDI）,基于内蒙古2000—2017年生长季每16 d的TVDI分析了近18年来内蒙古生长季旱情时空分布特征,结合气温和降水资料初步探讨了旱情变化的影响因素。结果表明：（1）2000—2017年内蒙古生长季TVDI平均值为0.6,重旱和中旱所占面积最大,其中2007年、2010年为旱情最为严重的年份。内蒙古干旱空间分异明显,西南部以轻旱为主,中部地区以中旱为主,大兴安岭以西的呼伦贝尔草原等地旱情严重。（2）近18年内蒙古生长季干旱程度呈现轻微加重趋势,年际变化值θ_slope介于-0.07~0.7之间,阿鲁科尔沁旗东北部至霍林河一带旱情加重趋势最为严重,阿荣旗和扎兰屯等农业生产地区旱情有轻微加重趋势。（3）2017年内蒙古生长季以区域性和局域性干旱为主,6月和9月干旱最为严重,呼伦贝尔草原和鄂尔多斯高原西部干旱发生频率高且程度重。（4）内蒙古干旱影响因子分析结果表明,TVDI值与气温呈正相关、与降水和坡度呈负相关、与小于1300 m的高程呈正相关、与大于1300 m的高程呈负相关关系。内蒙古生长季TVDI与气温和降水偏相关分析结果表明,锡林郭勒盟苏尼特左旗北部、呼伦贝尔鄂伦春自治旗和呼伦贝尔草原等地旱情与气温正相关关系较为显著（P<0.01）,锡林郭勒盟东北部干旱情况与降水负相关关系较为显著（P<0.01）,其中,气温对旱情的影响强于降水。     

山地风电工程建设中水土保持及植被恢复的设计方案探究

分析了云南风电建设的现状,提出了生态环保示范性山地风电工程的概念和原则,并以华能南华云台山风电工程为例,从建设前、中的水土保持措施及后期植被恢复方案对道路、弃渣场、风机平台等区域进行探究,并对工程建设的生态、经济效益进行了预测.研究指出,生态环保示范性山地风电工程的建设既不同于荒山造林或更新造林,也不同于园林绿化.既要考虑生态恢复和水土保持功能,又要考虑植被恢复效果、环境美化和降低成本.因而在前期、建设过程中要做好勘测,因地制宜多方评审,优化方案.能够让生态系统不经过人为的干预,还原、融入到被破坏前的环境当中去,将生态恢复和一定的经济效益、环境美化结合起来,实现改善生态、生活环境,促进人与自然和谐发展的最终目标.     

喀斯特山区植被恢复过程中土壤水解酶和氧化酶活性的响应

土地利用方式的改变,如农田退耕是影响土壤有机碳固持的重要因素.喀斯特地区正开展大规模的生态系统恢复工程,然而生态系统恢复过程中土壤有机碳的固持机制依然不甚清楚.土壤有机碳的分解是土壤碳循环的一个关键过程.不同组分有机碳的分解受不同酶的活性控制,因此,在西南喀斯特山区不同植被恢复阶段下开展土壤酶活性特征研究,有助于了解该地区土壤有机碳固持机制并为该地区的生态恢复实践提供理论支撑.本研究在广西河池市环江县典型喀斯特区域的农田、草地、灌丛、次生林4种不同植被恢复阶段下采集0~10 cm深度的土壤样品,采用荧光光度法和紫外分光光度法测定3种土壤水解酶(即β-葡糖苷酶、α-纤维素酶和β-木糖苷酶)和1种氧化酶(过氧化物酶)的活性及相关土壤理化属性指标,研究植被恢复过程中土壤水解酶(参与活性碳库的分解)和氧化酶活性(参与惰性碳库的分解)的响应.结果显示,随着植被恢复土壤水解酶活性不断增加(次生林灌丛草地农田),而土壤氧化酶无明显变化.导致该结果的原因可能是由于喀斯特地区土壤有机碳极高的稳定性导致微生物趋向于利用活性有机碳库,而对于惰性有机碳库的分解并无显著差别.本研究间接说明喀斯特地区农田退耕后将有利于土壤惰性有机碳的累积.     

洱海沙坪湾湖滨带不同植被带中细菌分布特征

湖滨带是湖泊保护的重要屏障,其不同植被带中的细菌对入湖污染物降解起重要作用.为研究不同植被带中的细菌分布,以洱海沙坪湾湖滨带为研究对象,采用Illumina HiSeq高通量测序方法,对其中AG(乔草植被带)、EP(挺水植被带)、SP(沉水植被带)和UV(无植被带)的土壤或沉积物中的细菌多样性和群落结构进行研究.结果表明:湖滨带植被带中细菌种类丰富,共有54个门、106个纲、192个目、334个科和503个属被检测到,细菌的OTUs从高到低依次为EP(3 162个)、AG(2 926个)、UV(2 709个)和SP(2 427个),Shannon-Wiener多样性指数从高到低依次为EP(10.14)、AG(9.75)、SP(9.44) 和UV(9.26);湖滨带植被带中主要细菌类群是变形菌门(Proteobacteria)(AG,48.55%;EP,47.83%;SP,40.36%;UV,44.00%)、酸杆菌门(Acidobacteria)(AG,19.30%;EP,5.31%;SP,5.67%;UV,6.30%)、厚壁菌门(Firmicutes)(AG,6.01%;EP,8.24%;SP,3.96%;UV,13.13%)和绿弯菌门(Chloroflexi)(AG,3.98%;EP,8.91%;SP,8.95%;UV,7.59%),主要类群在不同植被带中占比不同;植被带类型对细菌的群落结构特征影响不大,但对细菌种群的多样性影响较大.典型对应分析(CCA)结果显示,w(TP)、pH和w(OM)(OM为有机质)是影响不同植被带细菌种群结构的主要环境因子.