Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande1

Abudu, S., J.P. King, Z. Sheng, 2011. Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 10‐23. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00587.x Abstract: This paper presents the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), transfer function‐noise (TFN), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) modeling approaches in forecasting monthly total dissolved solids (TDS) of water in the Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas. Predictability analysis was performed between the precipitation, temperature, streamflow rates at the site, releases from upstream reservoirs, and monthly TDS using cross‐correlation statistical tests. The chi‐square test results indicated that the average monthly temperature and precipitation did not show significant predictability on monthly TDS series. The performances of one‐ to three‐month‐ahead model forecasts for the testing period of 1984‐1994 showed that the TFN model that incorporated the streamflow rates at the site and Caballo Reservoir release improved monthly TDS forecasts slightly better than the ARIMA models. Except for one‐month‐ahead forecasts, the ANN models using the streamflow rates at the site as inputs resulted in no significant improvements over the TFN models at two‐month‐ahead and three‐month‐ahead forecasts. For three‐month‐ahead forecasts, the simple ARIMA showed similar performance compared to all other models. The results of this study suggested that simple deseasonalized ARIMA models could be used in one‐ to three‐month‐ahead TDS forecasting at the study site with a simple, explicit model structure and similar model performance as the TFN and ANN models for better water management in the Basin.     

Application of Rosgen’s BANCS Model for NE Kansas and the Development of Predictive Streambank Erosion Curves1

Sass, Christopher K. and Tim D. Keane, 2012. Application of Rosgen’s BANCS Model for NE Kansas and the Development of Predictive Streambank Erosion Curves. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 774‐787. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00644.x Abstract: Sedimentation of waterways and reservoirs directly related to streambank erosion threatens freshwater supply. This study sought to provide a tool that accurately predicts annual streambank erosion rates in NE Kansas. Rosgen (2001, 2006) methods were employed and 18 study banks were measured and monitored from 2007 through 2010 (May‐June). Bank profiles were overlaid to calculate toe pin area change due to erosional processes. Streambanks experienced varied erosion rates from similar Bank Erosion Hazard Index (BEHI)‐Near Bank Stress (NBS) combinations producing R² values of 0.77 High‐Very High BEHI rating and 0.75 Moderate BEHI rating regarding predictive erosion curves for NE Kansas. Moderate ratings demonstrated higher erosion rates than High‐Very High ratings and BEHI trend lines intersected at lower NBS ratings, suggesting a discrepancy in the fit of the model to conditions in the NE Kansas region. BEHI model factors were evaluated and assessed for additional influences exerted in the region. Woody vegetation adjacent to the stream seemed to provide the most variation in erosion rates. This study’s findings allowed us to calibrate and modify the existing BEHI model according to woody vegetation occurrence levels along streambanks with high clay content. Modifications regarding vegetation occurrence of the BEHI model was completed and the results of these modifications generated new curves resulting in R² values of 0.84 High‐Very High BEHI and 0.88 Moderate BEHI ratings.     

Plant steroid hormones produced under Ni stress are involved in the regulation of metal uptake and oxidative stress in Brassica juncea L

Brassinosteroids (BRs) are involved in the amelioration of various biotic and abiotic stresses. With an aim to explore the role of BRs under heavy metal stress, plants of Brassica juncea L. were grown in pots. The plants were subjected to various concentrations of Nickel metal (0.0, 0.2, 0.4 and 0.6 mM) and harvested on 60th day in order to observe the expression of these hormones. The isolated BRs from the leaves of Brassica plants characterized by GC-MS include 24-Epibrassinolide (24-EBL), Castasterone, Dolicholide and Typhasterole. The effect of isolated 24-EBL was studied on Ni metal uptake and antioxidative defense system in 60 d old plants of Brassica. It was observed that 24-EBL significantly increased the activities of stress ameliorating enzymes and lowered the metal uptake in plants. This is the first report in B. juncea L. plants showing the expression of BRs under metal treatments and effect of the isolated 24-EBL on metal uptake and in oxidative stress management.     

The structure of the fire fighting foam surfactant Forafac®1157 and its biological and photolytic transformation products

For several decades, perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) has widely been used as a fluorinated surfactant in aqueous film forming foams used as hydrocarbon fuel fire extinguishers. Due to concerns regarding its environmental persistence and toxicological effects, PFOS has recently been replaced by novel fluorinated surfactants such as Forafac®1157, developed by the DuPont company. The major component of Forafac®1157 is a 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonamide alkylbetaine (6:2 FTAB), and a link between the trade name and the exact chemical structure is presented here to the scientific community for the first time. In the present work, the structure of the 6:2 FTAB was elucidated by ¹H, ¹³C and ¹⁹F nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and high-resolution mass spectrometry. Moreover, its major metabolites from blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) and turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) and its photolytic transformation products were identified. Contrary to what has earlier been observed for PFOS, the 6:2 FTAB was extensively metabolized by blue mussel and turbot exposed to Forafac®1157. The major metabolite was a deacetylated betaine species, from which mono- and di-demethylated metabolites also were formed. Another abundant metabolite was the 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonamide. In another experiment, Forafac®1157 was subjected to UV-light induced photolysis. The experimental conditions aimed to simulate Arctic conditions and the deacetylated species was again the primary transformation product of 6:2 FTAB. A 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonamide was also formed along with a non-identified transformation product. The environmental presence of most of the metabolites and transformation products was qualitatively demonstrated by analysis of soil samples taken in close proximity to an airport fire training facility.     

高效聚合氯化铝对超滤膜污染影响的中试研究

针对某水厂以超滤为核心的短流程水处理工艺,在通过聚氯乙烯(PVC)超滤膜之前选择不同投加量(5、10、15和20 mg/L)的高效聚合氯化铝(HPAC)对长江下游原水进行混凝处理。通过跨膜压差(TMP)增长趋势、CODMn的去除率以及混凝后的水质,可知HPAC的最优投加量为15 mg/L。在此投加量下,运用体积排阻色谱法分析原水、膜前水、膜后水中各相对分子质量有机物的变化,可以发现混凝去除有机物的效果要优于超滤截留的。继而将HPAC与另外4种常用混凝剂:硫酸铝(分析纯)、氯化铁(化学纯)、聚合氯化铝(PAC)、聚合硫酸铁进行对比,结果表明,在它们各自最优投加量下,HPAC能够更有效地减缓超滤膜TMP的增长率,从而降低膜污染。因此,认为HPAC是与PVC超滤合金膜契合效果最佳的混凝剂。     

中国区域创新能力差异变动实证分析

区域创新能力是决定区域经济发展水平和经济增长实力的关键,在建设"创新型国家"的战略背景下,各省市越来越注重区域创新能力的建设。区域创新能力作为一个动态的发展过程,其差异在不断变化,差异可能扩大也可能缩小,区域创新能力的差异性及随时间的波动性对政府相关管理部门的决策具有重要影响。本文以发明专利申请量和大中型工业企业新产品产值衡量区域创新能力,运用Theil系数模型测算了1990-2008年间我国发明专利申请量和大中型工业企业新产品产值的区域差异变动情况。结果发现:发明专利申请量区域差异变动呈现S型曲线;大中型工业企业新产品产值区域差异变动呈现近似倒U型曲线;区间差异和东部地区内部差异在总差异中占主导地位。在此基础上,本文进一步提出了缩小我国区域创新能力差异的针对性政策建议。     

城镇污水处理厂NPR工艺低温运行的效能分析

介绍了天津市某城镇污水处理厂NPR工艺的特点及运行状况。通过对污水厂的运行监测数据分析,研究了该工艺在低温条件下处理城镇生活污水时的脱氮除磷效果。结果表明:NPR工艺具有一定的优异性,它能在降低能耗的前提下使系统COD和SS的去除率进一步降低,出水能达到中水回用标准,有利于污水的再生利用;低温影响NPR系统的硝化及反硝化率,低温下有机物的去除更易受到有机负荷的影响;温度对生物去除SS,COD和TP的效果影响不大,对NH3-N及TN的去除效果影响比较明显。低温下污水处理厂COD、SS、NH3-N、TN、TP的平均去除率分别为72.1%、94.9%、67.5%、55.1%、66.5%。     

火电机组状态及性能全息诊断系统技术及应用

阐述了火电机组状态及性能全息诊断系统的技术原理、系统结构及应用情况。该系统以解决机组应用性能问题为目标,采用状态空间分析模型,具备多层次分析的运行操作指导,基于性能渐变特性的设备状态检修,包括分散度在内的运行指标考核以及定期的节能潜力诊断等功能,在10余家电厂44台近1500万kW机组上取得了供电煤耗平均降低1.5～3.5g（标煤）/kW.h的节能效果。     

高原环境对直升机旋翼性能的影响分析

针对高原环境直升机旋翼性能的估算,建立了一个基于自由涡理论的旋翼尾迹模型,并推导了旋翼拉力和功率的计算方法。以UH-60黑鹰直升机为算例,分别计算了其在海平面及高原环境的旋翼性能,探讨了海拔高度对直升机旋翼性能的影响规律。计算结果表明,高原环境的气候条件对直升机旋翼性能有显著影响,旋翼拉力较海平面环境减小约30%。     

机械冲击振打扁袋和脉冲圆袋除尘器性能对比

对脉冲对反吹圆袋除尘器和机械冲击振打扁袋除尘器进行了数字计算和分析对比,显示前者落后,后者先进,并对空气净化除尘及可预计的节能降耗目标进行了粗估。