Implications of Land Use Changes on Carbon Dynamics and Sequestration—Evaluation from Forestry Datasets, India

Forests and soils are a major sink of carbon, and land use changes can affect the magnitude of above ground and below ground carbon stores and the net flux of carbon between the land and the atmosphere. Studies on methods for examining the future consequences of changes in patterns of land use change and carbon flux gains importance, as they provide different options for CO₂ mitigation strategies. In this study, a simulation approach combining Markov chain processes and carbon pools for forests and soils has been implemented to study the carbon flows over a period of time. Markov chains have been computed by converting the land use change and forestry data of India from 1997 to 1999 into a matrix of conditional probabilities reflecting the changes from one class at time t to another class time t+1. Results from Markov modeling suggested Indian forests as a potential sink for 0.94 Gt carbon, with an increase in dense forest area of about 75.93 Mha and decrease of about 3.4 Mha and 5.0 Mha in open and scrub forests, if similar land use changes that occurred during 1997–1999 would continue. The limiting probabilities suggested 34.27 percent as dense forest, 6.90 as open forest, 0.4 percent mangrove forest, 0.1 percent scrub and 58 percent as non-forest area. Although Indian forests are found to be a potential carbon sink, analysis of results from transition probabilities for different years till 2050 suggests that, the forests will continue to be a source of about 20.59 MtC to the atmosphere. The implications of these results in the context of increasing anthropogenic pressure on open and scrub forests and their contribution to carbon source from land use change and forestry sector are discussed. Some of the mitigation aspects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land use change and forestry sector in India are also reviewed in the study.     

Developmental Processes, Changing Lifestyle and Traditional Wisdom: Analyses from Western Himalaya

Traditional knowledge and practices are important in prudent resource use and biodiversity conservation. The implications of modernization and changing lifestyle are discussed in the context of agriculture and resource use, the two sectors in which maximum modernization has occurred. The information was gathered through observations and structured interviews over three years (July 1996 to July 1999) of field work in the western Himalaya. It was observed that forest based subsistence agriculture has given way to the market dependant cash crop cultivation. That apart from loss of genetic diversity, has also resulted in the degradation of forests. The use of wild plants in the day-to-day activities has also declined and dependence on high value market products has increased. Currently, wild plants are used only if no other cheap substitute is available in the market or if the use is economically beneficial to the people. Thus, the knowledge gathered through ages of experience is eroding because of the activities geared for short-term economic benefits which, in long run, may not be sustainable.     

Past and future sustainability of water policies in Europe

The article contributes to a discussion on two global issues on water: water resources management, and water supply and sanitation. Focusing on Europe, it traces the legal roots of current systems in history: as a resource, water is considered as a common property, rather than a market good; while as a public service it is usually a commodity. Public water supply and sanitation technologies and engineering have developed under three main paradigms: quantitative and civil engineering; qualitative and chemical/sanitary engineering (both on the supply side); and the most recent one, environmental engineering and integrated management (on the demand side). The cost of public drinking water is due to rise sharply in view of the two‐fold financial challenge of replacing an ageing infrastructure and keeping up with ever‐rising environmental and sanitary quality standards. Who will pay? Government subsidies, or water users? The author suggests that apparent successes with privatisation may have relied heavily on hidden government subsidies and/or the healthy state of previously installed water infrastructure: past government subsidies are still felt for as long as the lifetime of the infrastructure. The article stresses the importance of public participation and decentralized local management of water and sanitation services. Informing and involving users in water management decisions is seen as an integral part of the ‘ethics’ side of the crucial three E's (economics, environment, ethics). The article strongly argues for municipal provision of water services, and hopes that lessons learnt and solutions found in the European experience may serve water services management efforts in other regions of the world.     

水危机与生态环境保护

本文对水危机及全球水源状况进行了分析，为保护人类水资源与生态环境进行了有益的探索。     

NUTRIENT LOADING ASSESSMENT IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER USING A SYNTHETIC APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: A synthetic relationship is developed between nutrient concentrations and discharge rates at two river gauging sites in the Illinois River Basin. Analysis is performed on data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on nutrients in 1990 through 1997 and 1999 and on discharge rates in 1988 through 1997 and 1999. The Illinois River Basin is in western Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma and is designated as an Oklahoma Scenic River. Consistently high nutrient concentrations in the river and receiving water bodies conflict with recreational water use, leading to intense stakeholder debate on how best to manage water quality. Results show that the majority of annual phosphorus (P) loading is transported by direct runoff, with high concentrations transported by high discharge rates and low concentrations by low discharge rates. A synthetic relationship is derived and used to generate daily phosphorus concentrations, laying the foundation for analysis of annual loading and evaluation of alternative management practices. Total nitrogen (N) concentration does not have as clear a relationship with discharge. Using a simple regression relationship, annual P loadings are estimated as having a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 39.8 t/yr and 31.9 t/yr and mean absolute percentage errors of 19 percent and 28 percent at Watts and Tahlequah, respectively. P is the limiting nutrient over the full range of discharges. Given that the majority of P is derived from Arkansas, management practices that control P would have the most benefit if applied on the Arkansas side of the border.     

A THEORETICAL TRAVEL TIME BASED ON WATERSHED HYPSOMETRY1

ABSTRACT: The time to hydrograph peak of a watershed basin has been found to correlate with various statistical attributes (e.g., skewness and kurtosis) of its hypsometric curve (treated as probability distribution). This paper presents a theoretical travel time that is conceptually analogous to the time to hydrograph peak and can be calculated directly from the hypsometric curve of a watershed basin based on gravity and acceleration. The theoretical travel times for 23 selected watersheds in the United States are found to correlate significantly with their corresponding hypsometric attributes. In addition, the theoretical travel times are consistent with the times of concentration estimated from the Federal Aviation Administration method. Thus, this paper offers a simple theoretical explanation to the empirically identified linkage between time to hydrograph peak and hypsometric attributes. This theoretical travel time can provide an alternative way of characterizing the effects of basin morphometry on hydrologic response.     

INCREASED BASEFLOW IN IOWA OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY1

ABSTRACT: Historical trends in annual discharge characteristics were evaluated for 11 gauging stations located throughout Iowa. Discharge records from nine eight‐digit hydrologic unit code (HUC‐8) watersheds were examined for the period 1940 to 2000, whereas data for two larger river systems (Cedar and Des Moines Rivers) were examined for a longer period of record (1903 to 2000). In nearly all watersheds evaluated, annual base flow, annual minimum flow, and the annual base flow percentage significantly increased over time. Some rivers also exhibited increasing trends in total annual discharge, whereas only the Maquoketa River had significantly decreased annual maximum flows. Regression of stream discharge versus precipitation indicated that more precipitation is being routed into streams as base flow than as storm flow in the second half of the 20th Century. Reasons for the observed stream flow trends are hypothesized to include improved conservation practices, greater artificial drainage, increasing row crop production, and channel incision. Each of these reasons is consistent with the observed trends, and all are likely responsible to some degree in most watersheds.     

INCORPORATING NATURAL VARIABILITY,UNCERTAINTY, AND RISK INTO WATER QUALITY EVALUATIONS USING DURATION CURVES1

ABSTRACT: Quantifying natural variability, uncertainty, and risk with minimal data is one of the greatest challenges facing those engaged in water quality evaluations, such as development of total maximum daily loads (TMDL), because of regulatory, natural, and analytical constraints. Quantification of uncertainty and variability in natural systems is illustrated using duration curves (DCs), plots that illustrate the percent of time that a particular flow rate (FDC), concentration (CDC), or load rate (LDC; “TMDL”) is exceeded, and are constructed using simple derived distributions. Duration curves require different construction methods and interpretations, depending on whether there is a statistically significant correlation between concentration (C) and flow (Q), and on the sign of the C‐Q regression slope (positive or negative). Flow DCs computed from annual runoff data vary compared with an FDC developed using all data. Percent exceedance for DCs can correspond to risk; however, DCs are not composed of independent quantities. Confidence intervals of data about a regression line can be used to develop confidence limits for the CDC and LDC. An alternate expression to a fixed TMDL is suggested as the risk of a load rate being exceeded and lying between confidence limits. Averages over partial ranges of DCs are also suggested as an alternative expression of TMDLs. DCs can be used to quantify watershed response in terms of changes in exceedances, concentrations, and load rates after implementation of best management practices.     

ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS AND POLLUTION EFFECTS IN AN OZARK CAVE STREAM1

ABSTRACT: Subterranean ecosystems harbor globally rare fauna and important water resources, but ecological processes are poorly understood and are threatened by anthropogenic stresses. Ecosystem analyses were conducted from 1997 to 2000 in Cave Springs Cave, Arkansas, situated in a region of intensive land use, to determine the degree of habitat degradation and viability of endangered fauna. Organic matter budgeting quantified energy flux and documented the dominant input as dissolved organic matter and not gray bat guano (Myotis grisescens). Carbon/nitrogen stable isotope analyses described a trophic web of Ozark cavefish (Amblyopsis rosae) that primarily consumed cave isopods (Caecidotea stiladactyla), which in turn appeared to consume benthic matter originating from a complex mixture of soil, leaf litter, and anthropogenic wastes. Septic leachate, sewage sludge, and cow manure were suspected to augment the food web and were implicated in environmental degradation. Water, sediment, and animal tissue analyses detected excess nutrients, fecal bacteria, and toxic concentrations of metals. Community assemblage may have been altered: sensitive species‐grotto salamanders (Typhlotriton spelaeus) and stygobro‐mid amphipods—were not detected, while more resilient isopods flourished. Reduction of septic and agricultural waste inputs may be necessary to restore ecosystem dynamics in this cave ecosystem to its former undisturbed condition.     

BUILDUP,WASHOFF, AND EVENT MEAN CONCENTRATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Most watershed water quality simulation models require the user to specify pollutant buildup and washoff rate parameters for pollutants, by land use. Buildup and washoff rates are difficult to measure directly, and only limited guidance and few observed data are available from the literature. Many studies, however, report storm event mean concentrations (EMCs). These EMCs must arise as a result of the buildup and washoff processes, but typically represent the net contribution from a variety of pervious and impervious surfaces. This paper explores the relationship between EMCs and buildup/washoff parameters. An assumption of the mathematical form of the buildup/washoff relationship gives an algebraic expression for the EMC consistent with model assumptions. This yields techniques to separate observed EMCs into contributions from different land uses and from pervious and impervious surfaces. Given this relationship, numerical optimization may be used to estimate site specific values of buildup and washoff parameters from observed storm EMCs for use in modeling. Use of this approach helps ensure that model parameters are consistent with observed data, providing a rational starting point for final model calibration. Several site examples demonstrate use of the method.