基于水热因子波动的呼伦贝尔草原产草量模型

基于多年气象资料(温度和降水量)和产草量监测数据,采用相关分析、主成分分析和回归分析等方法,构建呼伦贝尔草原产草量与气象因子统计学模型,并对二者之间的关系进行了分析.结果表明:利用水热波动因子建立的多项式回归模型具有较好的拟合效果,所建立的呼伦贝尔草原产草量预测模型为y=100.209+1.6410x-0.00559x2.F值显著性检验表明,其复相关系数R2=0.4713,F=8.0239(P=0.0033),在α=0.01水平上显著.利用1989─2009年呼伦贝尔草原产草量数据进行模型精度检验,模型预测精度在85%以上.该预测模型具有选用参数易得、易于代入遥感数据中进行栅格计算、精度高于基于植被指数预测模型等特点.     

Impacts of agri-environmental policy on land use and nitrogen leaching in Finland

Agri-environmental policies are challenging to be evaluated since they are often implemented in combination with other policies and regulations affecting agriculture. Also input and output markets affect agriculture. We provide impact assessment of agri-environmental scheme implemented in Finland 2007–2013 based on integrated economic and hydrological modelling and counterfactual scenarios. Development of crop specific fertilisation and land use changes, simulated using a multi-regional economic sector model, is included in a nutrient leaching model implemented in a typical agricultural region. Our results on agricultural production, land use, and nitrogen leaching show that the agri-environmental policy successfully mitigates nutrient leaching in intensive production regions but some mitigation potential is lost in less intensive regions.     

地下水渗流补给-内源释放耦合作用下河流水质不确定模拟

针对河流-地下水环境系统的模糊性、不精确性及随机不确定性,采用梯形模糊数描述和表征河流水文、水质及水文地质参数,构建了集成地下水渗流补给与内源释放耦合影响的一维河流水质模糊模拟模型.在此基础上,就地下水渗流补给与内源释放的可能组合,设置5种情景,分别进行水质模拟,并对计算结果进行分析、对比.实例研究表明,对地下水渗流补给与内源释放耦合作用下的河流水质衰减变化规律,梯形模糊数有较好的模拟效果.     

Scale-up modeling of the twin roll casting process for AZ31 magnesium alloy

In the present study, a 2-D finite-element method (FEM) thermal-fluid-stress model has been developed and validated for the twin roll casting (TRC) of AZ31 magnesium alloy. The model was then used to quantify how the thermo-mechanical history experienced by the strip during TRC would change as the equipment was scaled up from a laboratory size (roll diameter = 355 mm) to a pilot scale (roll diameter = 600 mm) and to an industrial scale (roll diameter = 1150 mm) machine. The model predictions showed that the thermal history and solidification cooling rate experienced by the strip are not affected significantly by caster scale-up. However, the mechanical history experienced by the strip did change remarkably depending on the roll diameters. Casting with bigger rolls led to the development of higher stress levels at the strip surface. The roll separating force/mm width of strip was also predicted to increase significantly when the TRC was scaled to larger sizes. Using the model predicted results, the effect of both casting speed and roll diameter was integrated into an empirical equation to predict the exit temperature and the roll separating force for AZ31. Using this approach, a TRC process map was generated for AZ31 which included roll diameter and casting speed.     

城市大气中臭氧浓度控制的困难与挑战——以成都市为例

研究城市化、工业化和区域经济一体化进程的不断加快,对城市大气环境的影响是当前大气环境领域研究的热点问题。在此过程中,利用空气质量模型模拟系统研究大气环境污染问题成为大气环境研究中不可缺少的组成部分。在当前空气污染复杂的形势下,针对城市大气环境中臭氧的浓度尚未有效的控制措施。研究主要利用Models-3/CMAQ空气质量模式对成都市臭氧浓度数值通过不同的控制情景进行模拟,揭示城市大气中臭氧浓度控制的困难与挑战,并尝试性提出今后的研究方向,以期为控制城市大气中臭氧浓度提供建议。     

Database-driven models of the world's Large Marine Ecosystems

We present a new methodology for database-driven ecosystem model generation and apply the methodology to the world's 66 currently defined Large Marine Ecosystems. The method relies on a large number of spatial and temporal databases, including FishBase, SeaLifeBase, as well as several other databases developed notably as part of the Sea Around Us project. The models are formulated using the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling approach and software. We tune the models by fitting to available time series data, but recognize that the models represent only a first-generation of database-driven ecosystem models. We use the models to obtain a first estimate of fish biomass in the world's LMEs. The biggest hurdles at present to further model development and validation are insufficient time series trend information, and data on spatial fishing effort.     

Body fluid analog chlorination: Application to the determination of disinfection byproduct formation kinetics in swimming pool water

Disinfection by-products(DBPs) are formed in swimming pools by the reactions of bather inputs with the disinfectant.Although a wide range of molecules has been identified within DBPs,only few kinetic rates have been reported.This study investigates the kinetics of chlorine consumption,chloroform formation and dichloroacetonitrile formation caused by human releases.Since the flux and main components of human inputs have been determined and formalized through Body Fluid Analogs(BFAs),it is possible to model the DBPs formation kinetics by studying a limited number of precursor molecules.For each parameter the individual contributions of BFA components have been quantified and kinetic rates have been determined,based on reaction mechanisms proposed in the literature.With a molar consumption of 4 mol Cl_2/mol,urea is confirmed as the major chlorine consumer in the BFA because of its high concentration in human releases.The higher reactivity of ammonia is however highlighted.Citric acid is responsible for most of the chloroform produced during BFA chlorination.Chloroform formation is relatively slow with a limiting rate constant determined at 5.50 × 10~(-3) L/mol/sec.L-histidine is the only precursor for dichloroacetonitrile in the BFA.This DBP is rapidly formed and its degradation by hydrolysis and by reaction with hypochlorite shortens its lifetime in the basin.Reaction rates of dichloroacetonitrile formation by L-histidine chlorination have been established based on the latest chlorination mechanisms proposed.Moreover,this study shows that the reactivity toward chlorine differs whether L-histidine is isolated or mixed with BFA components.     

城市街区大气流动与汽车尾气扩散的三维数值模拟

道路交通已成为现代城市的主要污染源，利用数学模型预测汽车排放污染物对大气环境的影响成为主要手段。针对一个典型城市街区的大气流动和汽车排放物扩散问题进行三维数值模拟分析，揭示了污染物在不同高度建筑物。不同宽度街道和十字道路所组成的街区峡谷内外的大气流动和污染物迁移扩散特征，同时反映了街道走向的影响。研究表明：由于受街道布局和大气边界层的影响，污染物主要集中在街区峡谷内（特别是近地面附近)难以扩散，易造成局部高浓度污染；由于流场的非均匀性和三维特征，污染物浓度呈现非均匀扩散特性。     

Stepwise multiple regression method of greenhouse gas emission modeling in the energy sector in Poland

The energy sector in Poland is the source of 81% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Poland, among other European Union countries, occupies a leading position with regard to coal consumption. Polish energy sector actively participates in efforts to reduce GHG emissions to the atmosphere, through a gradual decrease of the share of coal in the fuel mix and development of renewable energy sources. All evidence which completes the knowledge about issues related to GHG emissions is a valuable source of information. The article presents the results of modeling of GHG emissions which are generated by the energy sector in Poland. For a better understanding of the quantitative relationship between total consumption of primary energy and greenhouse gas emission, multiple stepwise regression model was applied. The modeling results of CO₂ emissions demonstrate a high relationship (0.97) with the hard coal consumption variable. Adjustment coefficient of the model to actual data is high and equal to 95%. The backward step regression model, in the case of CH₄ emission, indicated the presence of hard coal (0.66), peat and fuel wood (0.34), solid waste fuels, as well as other sources (-0.64) as the most important variables. The adjusted coefficient is suitable and equals R² = 0.90. For N₂O emission modeling the obtained coefficient of determination is low and equal to 43%. A significant variable influencing the amount of N₂O emission is the peat and wood fuel consumption.     

Prediction of minimum ignition energy of aerosols using flame kernel modeling combined with flame front propagation theory

Flammable aerosols have created many fire and explosion hazards in the process industry, but the flammability of aerosols has not been fully understood. The minimum ignition energy has been widely used as an indicator for flammability of combustible mixtures, but the amount of experimental data on the minimum ignition energy of aerosols is very limited. In this work, the minimum ignition energy of tetralin aerosols is predicted using an integrated model. The model applies the flame front propagation theory in aerosol systems to the growth of the flame kernel, which was created during the spark discharge in the ignition process. The aerosol minimum ignition energy was defined as the minimum level of energy in the initial flame kernel to maintain the kernel temperature above the minimum ignition temperature of 1073 K specific for tetralin aerosols during the kernel growth. The minimum ignition energy obtained in the model is influenced by the fuel-air equivalence ratio and the size of the aerosol droplets. For tetralin aerosols of 40 μm diameter, E_min decreases significantly from 0.32 mJ to 4.3 × 10 e⁻³ mJ when the equivalence ratio rises from 0.57 to 1.0. For tetralin aerosols of 0.57 equivalence ratio, E_min increases from as 0.09 mJ to 0.32 mJ when the droplet diameter rises from 10 μm to 60 μm. The trends are in agreement with previous experimental observations. The method used in current work has the potential to prediction of the minimum ignition energy of aerosol.