武汉市夏季大气挥发性有机物实时组成及来源

利用在线监测仪器获取了武汉市2019年6～7月环境大气中102种挥发性有机物（VOCs）小时浓度数据.观测期间ρ（VOCs）范围为24.9～254μg·m^-3,平均值为（67.7±32.2）μg·m^-3.依据臭氧浓度标准,将观测期间划分为清洁日和污染日,对比分析清洁日和污染日气象条件、 VOCs浓度、组成、臭氧生成潜势和来源差异.污染日NO_x、 CO和VOCs的平均值分别超出清洁日34.9%、 25.0%和27.8%.污染日烷烃、烯烃、芳香烃和含氧VOCs分别比清洁日高40.7%、 39.5%、 26.9%和21.5%.污染日总臭氧生成潜势为（102±69.6）μg·m^-3,超出清洁天33.5%.污染日液化石油气燃烧、工业排放、机动车排放、天然源和溶剂使用的平均贡献率分别比清洁日低3.4%、 2.5%、 0.2%、 1.3%和1.4%,油气挥发源平均贡献率比清洁日高8.8%.机动车排放源和油气挥发源的日变化均呈现早晚高、午后低的特征,与早晚高峰排放有关;LPG燃烧的日变化与餐饮油烟排放变化一致.浓度...     

中亚跨境流域生态脆弱性评价及其时空特征分析——以阿姆河流域为例

生态脆弱性（EVI）的定量评估和长期分析,对于了解区域生态环境动态变化与指导生态环境保护与修复极为重要。但以往研究很少对跨境流域这一特殊单元进行生态脆弱性评价。以阿姆河流域为例,选择反映研究区植被、水文、气候、地形、土壤以及人类活动等方面的11个指标,通过共线性诊断分析,构建了阿姆河流域生态脆弱性评价体系,利用主观权重与客观权重相结合的方法确定指标权重,对1990-2015年研究区EVI进行了定量评价及时空特征分析。结果表明：（1）研究区生态环境呈恶化趋势,大部分区域处于重度脆弱状态,研究时段内重度脆弱性比例的平均值为46.40%;极度脆弱性占比在过去25年内呈增加趋势,从1990年的2.58%增加至2015年的16.97%,增幅为14.39%。（2）生态脆弱性在不同土地覆被类型之间差异巨大,其中草地的EVI值变化最大,裸地的生态环境最为脆弱,林地的生态脆弱性最小;研究区生态脆弱程度整体表现为裸地>灌丛>草地>耕地>城市用地>林地的规律。（3）EVI与地形因子的关系表明生态环境最为脆弱的区域主要位于低海拔地势平坦与高海拔坡度大的地区,而低脆弱性主要分布在海拔2500~3500 m或坡度15~25°的区间上。     

基于GWRK的土壤有效磷空间预测及其超标风险评估

以江苏省金坛区土壤有效磷的空间预测为例,构建地理加权回归克里格（GWRK）模型,即采用地理加权回归（GWR）来量化土壤有效磷与主要土壤因子（即：土壤全磷、土壤pH值和土壤有机质）之间的局部空间关系,并结合局部回归残差的插值结果来预测土壤有效磷的空间分布状况.GWR结果显示主要土壤因子对土壤有效磷含量的影响程度随空间位置的变化而变化.同时,采用独立验证样本对比GWRK模型和普通克里格（OK）模型的空间预测精度.结果显示,GWRK预测结果具有更低的平均绝对误差（MAE）、均方根误差（RMSE）和更高的Pearson相关系数（r）,且较OK预测结果的相对提高指数（RI）为19.61%.此外,根据GWRK预测结果,对金坛区土壤有效磷含量的超标风险进行了评估.结果表明土壤有效磷含量超过其环境安全阈值（40mg/kg）的区域集中分布在金坛区北部,其面积为175.58km²,约占金坛区总面积的18%.因此,GWRK模型能有效评估区域土壤元素有效量空间分布状况,且GWR局部空间回归系数能为区域土壤元素有效量的调控提供更精确空间决策支持.     

中国气溶胶光学厚度的时空分布及影响因素分析

基于1980~2017年MERRA-2再分析产品中的气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）数据,结合趋势分析和时空地理加权回归模型（GTWR）等方法,分析中国AOD的时空变化特征,从时空异质性视角量化自然地理和人类活动对AOD的综合影响.结果表明,1980~2017年AOD以0.0028a^-1的速率呈显著上升趋势,而2009~2017年AOD以0.0083a^-1的速率呈显著下降趋势.2008年前后为AOD由升到降的转折期,可能与2007年生态文明建设和2008年全球经济危机有关.胡焕庸线以东地区为AOD高值区,以人为气溶胶为主,近40a来AOD值呈显著上升趋势;胡焕庸线以西地区为AOD低值区,以自然气溶胶为主,AOD值基本不变.气温、气压、黑炭气溶胶排放和硫酸盐气溶胶排放与AOD呈正相关,降水、风速、NDVI和GDP与AOD呈负相关.AOD与影响因子间的关系具有时空异质性.从时间变化来看,降水、风速、NDVI、GDP的回归系数具有一致性,而气温、气压、黑炭气溶胶排放、硫酸盐气溶胶排放在不同年份的回归系数有正有负;从空间变化来看,中国北方地区气温与AOD间呈负相关,南方地区二者呈正相关.     

2001~2015年中国城镇化与PM2.5浓度时空关联特征

综合运用时空统计、剪刀差、地理加权回归等手段分5个阶段从人口、土地、经济角度研究了2001~2015年中国大陆地区城镇化水平与PM_2.5浓度的时空分布以及相互关联特征.结果表明：2001~2015年,我国3a均人口、土地、经济城镇化水平平均值稳步提高,PM_2.5浓度波动上升（44.14~50.89 μg/m³）,不同经济区之间时序变化趋势相似但强度存在差异.不同阶段PM_2.5浓度空间分布趋势基本一致,京津冀、河南与山东北部、新疆西部等地区始终为高值区,3类城镇化水平高值区域逐步扩大.城镇化水平的时序变化趋势与PM_2.5浓度随时间变化的趋势存在差异（切线夹角：15.33°~62.92°）,难以解释PM_2.5浓度在时间上的突变.城镇化水平与PM_2.5浓度空间分布关联特征显著,土地城镇化水平与PM_2.5浓度在0.01水平上正相关,其相关系数依次为东北（0.609~0.723） > 中部（0.572~0.631） > 东部（0.218~0.323） > 西部（0.079~0.255）,除中、西部地区外,经济城镇化水平对PM_2.5浓度正效应明显,东北地区人口城镇化水平与PM_2.5浓度负相关,GWR模型调整R²在2001~2003年阶段最高（0.6~0.77）,2013~2015年阶段最低（0.08~0.64）.     

中国县域碳排放时空演变与异质性

县域是实现减排控碳的关键空间单元,研究并揭示县域碳排放的时空演变特征和影响机制对于实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义.以县域作为分析单元,运用数理统计和面板数据回归模型等方法,分析2000～2017年中国县域碳排放时空演变和异质性特征,探究其影响机制.结果表明：(1) 2000～2017年碳排放年均增速为7.12%,历经“大幅上升-缓慢上升-高位波动”3个发展阶段,最终稳定在90×10⁸ t左右;在县域尺度上表现为显著正向空间自相关.(2)普通面板回归模型显示,GDP、建设用地规模、人口规模、人均GDP和人均金融机构存款余额和碳排放关系显著,前三者对碳排放的促进作用最为强烈.(3)时空地理加权回归模型拟合优度较高,除国民生产总值在全局上稳定表现为促进作用以外,其余影响因素的作用方向和强度均在时空上发生了较大转变;表明我国不同类型县域间碳排放水平和主要影响因素各异.该研究一定程度上揭示了县域碳排放的演变特征和异质性,有助于优化“双碳”目标的空间实施路径.     

基于泛平均运算的矿井瓦斯浓度组合预测模型

为有效分析煤矿瓦斯监测数据以实现准确、可靠的瓦斯浓度预测,基于不等权泛平均运算模型,研究瓦斯浓度时间序列组合预测的方法,提出一种新的矿井瓦斯浓度组合预测模型,并证明最优组合预测模型是其特例。采用自回归(AR)模型和径向基函数(RBF)神经网络预测模型作为组合预测模型的单项预测模型;以遗传算法和最小二乘法确定新组合预测模型的参数,实现瓦斯浓度预测单项模型的最优组合。试验分析表明:新模型在平方和误差、平均绝对误差、均方误差、平均绝对百分比误差、均方百分比误差等评价指标上,均取得比自回归模型、径向基函数神经网络模型和最优组合预测模型更低的误差。     

FORECASTING INDUSTRIAL WATER REQUIREMENTS IN MANUFACTURING1

ABSTRACT Procedures used to establish current and prospective manufacturing water withdrawals in a river basin are described. The needs study incorporated a computerized analysis of industrial requirements at basin, county and county subarea levels. Current usage in the universe of industries was examined preparatory to the determination of probable future withdrawals, to facilitate plan formulation with constraints involving large masses of data. In preparing the needs estimates, it was assumed that employment data on an establishment basis would provide a reasonably current, consistent and continuing basis for relating the water demands of an industry to the operating rate of its establishments, when changes in employment were related to the trend in output per employee, and intake per employee was related to water use technology by analysis of reuse, and use by function. The forecasting technique described employs a well-defined data base, accounts for the major share of self-supplied needs generally disregarded in per-capita demand estimates, and differentiates between the “once-through” and recycled components of initial withdrawal.     

WETLAND BOUNDARY DETERMINATION IN THE GREAT DISMAL SWAMP USING WEIGHTED AVERAGES1

ABSTRACT: A weighted average method was used to analyze transition zone vegetation in the Great Dismal Swamp to determine if a more uniform determination of wetland boundaries can be made nationwide. The method was applied to vegetation data collected on four transects and three vertical layers across the wetland-to-upland transition zone of the swamp. Ecological index values based on water tolerance were either taken from the literature or derived from local species tolerances. Wetland index values were calculated for 25-m increments using species cover and rankings based on the ecological indices. Wetland index values were used to designate increments as either wetland, transitional, or upland, and to examine the usefulness of a provisional wetland-upland break-point. Most increments were designated wetland or transitional when all species were used. Removal of three or five ubiquitous species either gave a wider range of wetland index values with a more variable designation of increments or caused designation of increments to be similar for all layers. The use of locally-derived rankings showed the sensitivity of the weighted averages method to ecological indices of species with large importance values. The weighted average method did not provide for an objective placement of an absolute wetland boundary, but did serve to focus attention on the transitional boundary zone where supplementary information is necessary to select a wetland-upland breakpoint.     

DESIGNATION OF WETLANDS BY WEIGHTED AVERAGES OF VEGETATION DATA: A PRELIMINARY EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT: Weighted averages (WA) was investigated as a vegetation-based method for wetland designation, to be used in conjunction with the wetland indicator status of plants from Wetland Plants of the United States of America 1986 (Reed, 1986). Ecological indices were assigned to indicator groups and were used to compute weighted averages for quantitative data obtained from four studies of wetland vegetation conducted in various regions of the United States. Weighted averages of vegetation data proved to be a useful tool for assessing wetland status of the vegetation types included in our study: (1) rankings of vegetation stands or types by WA correlated well with their positions on environmental moisture gradients; and (2) the results of WA could be used, together with a wetland/upland break-point, to designate vegetation types as wetland or upland in a way that agreed well, in three of the four studies, with an alternative classification of wetland habitats. The variation of weighted averages among the sampling units representing a vegetation type was generally small relative to the range of ecological indices assigned. However, designations based on weighted average scores close to the break-point should be considered provisional and must be verified with supplementary data on soils and hydrology.