PROBABILISTIC GREAT LAKES HYDROLOGY OUTLOOKS1

ABSTRACT: The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory developed a semiautomatic software package for making hydrological outlooks for the Great Lakes. These include basin moisture storages, basin runoff, lake heat storage, lake evaporation, heat fluxes, and net lake supplies, one or more full months into the future. The package combines GLERL's rainfall-runoff and lake evaporation models with near real-time data reduction techniques to represent current system states. Users select historical meteorologic record segments as candidate future scenarios to generate deterministic near real-time hydrological outlooks. GLERL has extended the package to make probabilistic outlooks for a decision-maker who must estimate the risk associated with his decisions. GLERL matches National Weather Service meteorologic outlook probabilities by selecting groups of historical meteorologic sequences, and constructs embedded outlook intervals for each hydrologic variable of interest. Interval probabilities are assigned from comparisons over a recent evaluation period. This physically-based approach for generating outlooks offers the ability, as compared to other statistically-based approaches, to incorporate improvements in the understanding, of process dynamics as they occur in the future and to respond reasonably to conditions initial to a forecast (such as heat and moisture storages), not observed in the past.     

DETERMINING SIGNIFICANCE AND PRECISION OF ESTIMATED PARAMETERS FOR RUNOFF FROM SEMIARID WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT Significant parameters for predicting thunderstorm runoff from small semiarid watersheds are determined using data from the Walnut Gulch watershed in southern Arizona. Based on these data, thunderstorm rainfall is dominant over watershed parameters for predicting runoff from multiple linear regression equations. In some cases antecedent moisture added significantly to the models. A technique is developed for estimating precision of predicted values from multiple linear regression equations. The technique involves matrix methods in estimating the variance of mean predicted values from a regression equation. The estimated variance of the mean predicted value is then used to estimate the variance of an individual predicted value. A computer program is developed to implement these matrix methods and to form confidence limits on predicted values based on both a normality assumption and the Chebyshev inequality.     

SOME PROBLEMS IN STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY1

In order to decrease the uncertainty that results in water resource planning and management studies due to the assumed recurrence of historical hydrological sequences, considerable study of stochastic processes in hydrology has taken place during the past 10 or 15 years. The general objective has been to develop a capability for generating a number of valid sequences, each of which could as resonably occur as could a recurrence of past events. A number of serious problems have been encountered, the consequence of which has been a serious lag in the application of stochastic processes to real planning and management problems. These problems include: a. an inability to generate droughts in some cases that are as extreme as have occurred historically, b. the generation of inconsistent values of stream flow at 2 locations on the same stream, c. the lack of mathematical techniques for the management of incomplete data sets, d. a great increase in the required computation for planning and management studies, and e. theoretical and computational difficulties in expanding the scope of stochastic hydrology from monthly quantities to short-period quantities. This paper discusses these problems and various approaches used in attempting their solution.     

Island-based catchment—The Taiwan example

Rapid economic and industrial development in Taiwan over the past five decades has elevated the islands standing and earned it a place in the group known as the Four Small Dragons of Asia. Such growth, however, has been at the expense of the environment. There are currently nearly 23 million people juggling for space on the small island of 35,873 km². Aggravating the matter further, the central mountain ranges and hills take up 73.6% of the land area with some 156 peaks surpassing 3,000 m. As a result, most people live in coastal plains which amount to only 9,490 km². Pressure to move people inland has led to road construction and deforestation, both of which have contributed to an already high denudation rate of topsoil. As a consequence of this, thirteen rivers in Taiwan are now ranked among the top 20 worldwide in terms of sediment yield. Aside from this, the frequency of both floods and droughts increased prior to 1990, perhaps because of deforestation and global warming. Fortunately, the new conservation-orientated forest management policy of 1991 has alleviated the problem, somewhat, and the occurrence of floods and droughts has since decreased. The problem of water shortage, however, has worsened because of the warming trend in atmospheric temperature. Damming may ameliorate the water shortage problem but may affect the shoreline stability, as well as the ecology and water quality in the estuaries. Furthermore, these detrimental effects may go far beyond the estuaries, and even fisheries on the continental shelves may be affected.     

A GIS Model of Subsurface Water Potential for Aquatic Resource Inventory,Assessment, and Environmental Management

Biological, chemical, and physical attributes of aquatic ecosystems are often strongly influenced by groundwater sources. Nonetheless, widespread access to predictions of subsurface contributions to rivers, lakes, and wetlands at a scale useful to environmental managers is generally lacking. In this paper, we describe a neighborhood analysis approach for estimating topographic constraints on spatial patterns of recharge and discharge and discuss how this index has proven useful in research, management, and conservation contexts. The Michigan Rivers Inventory subsurface flux model (MRI-DARCY) used digital elevation and hydraulic conductivity inferred from mapped surficial geology to estimate spatial patterns of hydraulic potential. Model predictions were calculated in units of specific discharge (meters per day) for a 30-m²-cell raster map and interpreted as an index of potential subsurface water flux (shallow groundwater and event through-flow). The model was evaluated by comparison with measurements of groundwater-related attributes at watershed, stream segment, and local spatial scales throughout Lower Michigan (USA). Map-based predictions using MRI-DARCY accounted for 85% of the observed variation in base flow from 128 USGS gauges, 69% of the observed variation in discharge accrual from 48 river segments, and 29% of the residual variation in local groundwater flux from 33 locations as measured by hyporheic temperature profiles after factoring out the effects of climate. Although it does not incorporate any information about the actual water table surface, by quantifying spatial variation of key constraints on groundwater-related attributes, the model provides strata for more intensive study, as well as a useful spatial tool for regional and local conservation planning, fisheries management, wetland characterization, and stream assessment.     

Scientist and policy-maker response types and times in suburban watersheds

Differences between scientist and policy-maker response types and times, or the “how” and “when” of action, constrain effective water resource management in suburbanizing watersheds. Policy-makers are often rushed to find a single policy that can be applied across an entire, homogeneous, geopolitical region, whereas scientists undertake multiyear research projects to appreciate the complex interactions occurring within heterogeneous catchments. As a result, watershed management is often practiced with science and policy out of synch. Meanwhile, development pressures in suburban watersheds create changes in the social and physical fabric and pose a moving target for science and policy. Recent and anticipated advances in the scientific understanding of urbanized catchment hydrology and pollutant transport suggest that management should become increasingly sensitive to spatial heterogeneities in watershed features, such as soil types, terrain slopes, and seasonal watertable profiles. Toward this end, policy-makers should encourage funding scientific research that characterizes the impacts of these watershed heterogeneities within a geopolitical zoning and development framework.     

Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

Upland Controls on the Hydrological Functioning of Riparian Zones in Glacial Till Valleys of the Midwest1

Abstract: Identifying relationships between landscape hydrogeological setting, riparian hydrological functioning and riparian zone sensitivity to climate and water quality changes is critical in order to best use riparian zones as best management practices in the future. In this study, we investigate water table dynamics, water flow path and the relative importance of precipitation, deep ground water (DG) and seep water as sources of water to a riparian zone in a deeply incised glacial till valley of the Midwest. Data indicate that water table fluctuations are strongly influenced by soil texture and to a lesser extent by upland sediment stratigraphy producing seeps near the slope bottom. The occurrence of till in the upland and at 1.7‐2 m in the riparian zone contributes to maintaining flow parallel to the ground surface at this site. Lateral ground‐water fluxes at this site with a steep topography in the upland (16%) and loam soil near the slope bottom are small (<10 l/d/m stream length) and intermittent. A shift in flow path from a lateral direction to a down valley direction is observed in the summer despite the steep concave topography and the occurrence of seeps at the slope bottom. Principal component and discriminant analysis indicate that riparian water is most similar to seep water throughout the year and that DG originating from imbedded sand and gravel layers in the lower till unit is not a major source of water to riparian zones in this setting. Water quality data and the dependence of the riparian zone for recharge on seep water suggest that sites in this setting may be highly sensitive to changes in precipitation and water quality in the upland in the future. A conceptual framework describing the hydrological functioning of riparian zones on this setting is presented to generalize the finding of this study.     

SOIL MOISTURE ACCOUNTING COMPONENT OF THE USDAHL-74 MODEL OF WATERSHED HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Soil moisture in two layers of a soil near Chickasha, Oklahoma, was simulated, using USDAHL-74 Model of Watershed Hydrology. Weekly values computed for both layers compared well with those observed during the 15-month period. Certain key parameters required adjustments in the model which illustrate the need for accurate input information. The experiment demonstrates that the model, which has previously given good results in continuous streamflow prediction on watersheds up to 100 square miles, can also compute soil moisture continuously at a site. This capability suggests other model uses, for example, in monitoring the disposition of applied chemicals.