Application of statistical modeling to optimize a coastal water quality monitoring program

The long-term water quality monitoring program implemented by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority in 1992 is extensive and has provide substantial understanding of the seasonality of the waters in both Boston Harbor and Massachusetts Bay and the response to improvements in effluent quality and offshore transfer of the effluent in September 2000. The monitoring program was designed with limited knowledge of spatial and temporal variability and long-term trends within the system. This led to an extensive spatial and temporal sampling program. The data through 2003 showed high correlation within physical parameters measured (e.g., salinity, dissolved oxygen) and in biological measures such as chlorophyll fluorescence. To address the potential sampling redundancies in the measurement program, an assessment of the impact of reduced levels of monitoring on the ability to make water quality decisions was completed. The optimization was conducted by applying statistical models that took into account whether there was evidence of a seasonal pattern in the data. The optimization used model survey average readings to identify temporal fixed effects, model survey-average-corrected individual station readings to identify spatial fixed effects, corrected the individual station readings for temporal and spatial fixed effects and derived a correlation model for the corrected data, and applied the correlation model to characterize the correlation of annual average readings from reduced monitoring programs with true parameter levels. Reductions in the number of sampling stations were found less detrimental to the quality of the data for annual decision-making than reductions in the number of surveys per year, although there is less of a difference in this regard for dissolved oxygen than there is for chlorophyll. The analysis led to recommendations for a substantially lower monitoring effort with minimal loss of information. The recommendation supported an annual budget savings of approximately $183,000. Most of the savings was from fewer surveys as approximately $21,000 came from the reduction in the number of stations monitored from 21 to 7 and associated laboratory analytical costs.     

Suburbanization and drought: A mixed methods vulnerability assessment in rainy Massachusetts

This paper presents evidence that water restrictions in suburbanizing eastern Massachusetts towns are becoming more common, controlling for climate. We then assess the relationship between these suburban droughts and residential development. Focusing on the suburbs of Boston, seven towns independent of the Boston water supply system were selected to represent differing levels of sprawl-style growth. Water restrictions are becoming more frequent in all of the towns studied, and models demonstrate that restrictions are increasing in duration, independent of climate. Interviews suggest that residential development is playing a central role in this increasing sensitivity to suburban drought, though other factors are also important. Long-term planning and integration of land-use planning and water management emerged as two key paths for attenuating the impacts of development.     

New Technology for Conducting Radiation Hazard Assessments: The Application of the Underwater Radiation Spectral Identification System (URSIS) at the Massachusetts Bay Industrial Waste (U.S.A.)

The Underwater Radiation Spectral Identification System (URSIS) is a portable spectrometer used for the in situ detection of radioactivity in the marine environment. This paper reports on the first time application of this technology to assess, in a preliminary manner, the potential radiation threat to the public and environment at an aquatic disposal site – the Massachusetts Bay Industrial Waste Site (IWS). Utilizing the meneuvering capabilities of ROV and manned submersible vehicles, the URSIS was successfully positioned close (5–10 cm) to waste containers for a period sufficient to detect, in real time, the presence of radioactive materials. Spectral data from 45 individual targets indicated that the radionuclides present in sediments which draped or partially buried waste containers were consistent with natural background concentrations. No man-made radionuclides were detected at any of the target or background measurement locations. These data support the conclusion that low-level radiation does not pose an imminent and widespread human health or ecological threat in Massachusetts Bay.     

Salt Marsh Diking and Restoration: Biogeochemical Implications of Altered Wetland Hydrology

Experimental short-term desalination and drainage of salt marsh cores in greenhouse microcosms caused Spartina production to increase after one growing season, reflecting decreased salt stress and sulfide toxicity. However, production thereafter declined, likely due to pyrite oxidation and acidification in drained treatments and sulfide accumulation in waterlogged treatments. A survey of longer-term (decadal) effects of diking on peat composition of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA, marshes revealed acidification, Fe(II) mobilization, and decreased organic content in drained sites. Despite the aerobic decomposition of organic matter, abundant nutrients remained as sorbed NH₄ and mineral-bound PO₄. In diked, seasonally waterlogged sites, porewater alkalinity, sulfide, ammonium and orthophosphate were much lower, and organic solids higher, than in adjacent natural marsh. Seawater was added to cores from diked marshes to study the effects of tidal restoration. Salination of the drained peat increased porewater pH, alkalinity, ammonium, orthophosphate, Fe, and Al; copious ammonium N, and Fe(II) for sulfide precipitation favored Spartina growth. Salination of diked–waterlogged peat increased sulfate reduction and caused 6–8 cm of sediment subsidence. The resulting increase in porewater sulfides and waterlogging decreased vigor of transplanted Spartina alterniflora. Results indicate that seawater restoration should proceed cautiously to avoid nutrient loading of surface waters in drained sites or sulfide toxicity in diked–waterlogged marshes.     

FRESH GROUND WATER STORED IN AQUIFERS UNDER THE CONTINENTAL SHELF: IMPLICATIONS FROM A DEEP TEST,NANTUCKET ISLAND,MASSACHUSETTS1

ABSTRACT: A deep water-resource and stratigraphic test well near the center of Nantucket Island, about 40 miles (64 km) off the New England Coast, has encountered freshwater at greater depth than predicted by the Ghyben-Herzberg principle. An uppermost lens of fresh-water, which occupies relatively permeable glacial-outwash sand and gravel to a depth of 520 ft. (158 m), is probably in hydrodynamic equilibrium with the present level of the sea and the height of the water table. However, two zones of freshwater between 730-820 ft. (222-250 m) and 900-930 ft. (274-283 m) are anomalously deep. A third zone extending from 1150-1500 ft. (350-457 m) contains slightly salty ground water (2 to 3 parts per thousand dissolved solids). Several explanations are possible, but the most likely is that large areas of the Continental Shelf were exposed to recharge by precipitation during long periods of low sea level in Pleistocene time. After the last retreat of glacial ice, seawater rapidly drowned the shelf around Nantucket Island. Since then, about 8000 years ago, the deep freshwater zones which underlie dense clay layers have not had time to adjust to a new equilibrium. Under similar circumstances freshwater may remain trapped under extensive areas of the Continental Shelf wherever clay confining beds have not permitted saltwater to intrude rapidly to new positions of hydrodynamic equilibrium. The implications are far reaching because all continental shelfs were exposed to similar hydrologic influences during Pleistocene time.     

Success in negotiating environmental regulations

The US Environmental Protection Agency recently completed two regulatory negotiation demonstrations. These demonstrations suggest that the current EPA rule-making process could be improved through the introduction of face-to-face negotiation at the earliest stages of rulemaking. In the demonstrations, EPA (1) relied on a consensus building process to forestall litigation after the promulgation of the final rule; (2) Used a nonpartisan facilitator to convene the negotiations; (3) Defined criteria to determine which parties should be represented in the negotiation. From the perspective of participants, the negotiating consensus version of a draft regulation is a successful alternative to the traditional rulemaking process. It is still too soon to say negotiated rulemaking significantly reduces the likelihood of ligitation. The results of the demonstration indicate that it is possible for either an agency employee or a neutral outsider to facilitate the sessions. A successful negotiation also requires top level agency support as well as the confidence of the environmental community. The single most important outcome of the negotiations was that the participants developed a greater understanding of the interests of the other parties. The demonstrations also suggest possible changes in future regulatory negotiations.     

Atmospheric deposition of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons near New England coastal waters

Wet and dry deposition of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was measured at Nahant, Massachusetts, a peninsula jutting into Massachusetts Bay and Wolf Neck, a peninsula jutting into Casco Bay, Maine. Wet deposition (rain and snow) was collected in a funnel which drains into a shielded, temperature controlled receiving bottle. Dry deposition of gaseous and particulate PAHs was collected onto an exposed water surface. PAHs were analyzed by solid phase extraction and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Sixteen PAH species were analyzed, ranging from acenaphthylene to coronene. The mean wet deposition rate of the sum of the 16 species is 720 ng m⁻² cm⁻¹ precipitation at Nahant, and 831 ng m⁻² cm⁻¹ precipitation at Wolf Neck. Wet deposition is attributed to regional PAH emitting sources. Storm patterns appear to bring somewhat higher wet deposition of PAHs to Wolf Neck than to Nahant. The mean dry deposition rate is 95 ng m⁻² h⁻¹ at Nahant and 9.3 ng m⁻² h⁻¹ at Wolf Neck. The large difference is attributed to the fact that Nahant is close to the urban-industrial metropolitan Boston area and Logan International Airport, whereas Wolf Neck has no major PAH-emitting sources nearby. Individual measurements have an error bracket of ±30%. The Chemical Mass Balance model was used to apportion the dry deposition to source categories. At Nahant, nine samples gave valid statistical attributes with a mean apportionment: jet exhaust 35%, gasoline fueled vehicles 32%, diesel fueled vehicles 17%, wood combustion 13%, others 3%. At Wolf Neck, six samples yielded a mean apportionment: jet exhaust 30%, gasoline vehicles 28%, diesel vehicles 18%, wood combustion 16%, others 8%. There is a considerable variation between the samples. The apportionment is greatly dependent on the quality and selection of the model inputs, i.e. source signatures, which for PAHs are questionable.     

The siting puzzle: Balancing economic and environmental gains and losses

Traditional approaches to the siting of potentially hazardous but regionally necessary facilities are often ineffective and lead to drawn-out legal disputes ultimately satisfactory to none of the parties. Research at MIT over the last decade has indicated five factors that may solve the siting puzzle. Application of these principles do not guarantee that a decision will not be disputed but may enhance the possibility of a wise and durable agreement.     

Suburbanization and drought: A mixed methods vulnerability assessment in rainy Massachusetts

This paper presents evidence that water restrictions in suburbanizing eastern Massachusetts towns are becoming more common, controlling for climate. We then assess the relationship between these suburban droughts and residential development. Focusing on the suburbs of Boston, seven towns independent of the Boston water supply system were selected to represent differing levels of sprawl-style growth. Water restrictions are becoming more frequent in all of the towns studied, and models demonstrate that restrictions are increasing in duration, independent of climate. Interviews suggest that residential development is playing a central role in this increasing sensitivity to suburban drought, though other factors are also important. Long-term planning and integration of land-use planning and water management emerged as two key paths for attenuating the impacts of development.     

Use of created cattail (Typha) wetlands in mitigation strategies

In order to balance pressures for land-use development with protection of wetland resources, artificial wetlands have been constructed in an effort to replace lost ecosystems. Despite its regulatory appeal and prominent role in current mitigation strategies, it is unclear whether or not created systems actually compensate for lost wetland resources. Mitigation predictions that rely on artificial wetlands must be analyzed critically in terms of their efficacy. Destruction of wetlands due to burial by coal fly ash at a municipal landfill in Danvers, Massachusetts, USA, provided an opportunity to compare resulting growth of created cattail (Typha) marshes with natural wetland areas. Once the appropriate cattail species was identified for growth under disturbed landfill conditions, two types of artificial wetlands were constructed. The two systems differed in their hydrologic attributes: while one had a surface water flow characteristic of most cattail wetlands, the second system mimicked soil and water conditions found in naturally occurring floating cattail marshes. Comparison of plant growth measurements for two years from the artificial systems with published values for natural cattail marshes revealed similar structure and growth patterns. Experiments are now in progress to investigate the ability of created cattail marshes to remove and accumulate heavy metals from polluted landfill leachate. Research of the type reported here must be pursued aggressively in order to document the performance of artificial wetlands in terms of plant structure and wetland functions. Such research should allow us to start to evaluate whether artificial systems actually compensate for lost wetlands by performing similar functions and providing the concomitant public benefits.