Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Biogeochemical Cycles, Benthic Fauna, and Management

Hypoxia has occurred intermittently over the Holocene in the Baltic Sea, but the recent expansion from less than 10 000 km² before 1950 to >60 000 km² since 2000 is mainly caused by enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere. With worsening hypoxia, the role of sediments changes from nitrogen removal to nitrogen release as ammonium. At present, denitrification in the water column and sediments is equally important. Phosphorus is currently buried in sediments mainly in organic form, with an additional contribution of reduced Fe-phosphate minerals in the deep anoxic basins. Upon the transition to oxic conditions, a significant proportion of the organic phosphorus will be remineralized, with the phosphorus then being bound to iron oxides. This iron-oxide bound phosphorus is readily released to the water column upon the onset of hypoxia again. Important ecosystems services carried out by the benthic fauna, including biogeochemical feedback-loops and biomass production, are also lost with hypoxia. The results provide quantitative knowledge of nutrient release and recycling processes under various environmental conditions in support of decision support tools underlying the Baltic Sea Action Plan.     

Arctic Tipping Points: Governance in Turbulent Times

Interacting forces of climate change and globalization are transforming the Arctic. Triggered by a non-linear shift in sea ice, this transformation has unleashed mounting interest in opportunities to exploit the region’s natural resources as well as growing concern about environmental, economic, and political issues associated with such efforts. This article addresses the implications of this transformation for governance, identifies limitations of existing arrangements, and explores changes needed to meet new demands. It advocates the development of an Arctic regime complex featuring flexibility across issues and adaptability over time along with an enhanced role for the Arctic Council both in conducting policy-relevant assessments and in promoting synergy in interactions among the elements of the emerging Arctic regime complex. The emphasis throughout is on maximizing the fit between the socioecological features of the Arctic and the character of the governance arrangements needed to steer the Arctic toward a sustainable future.     

Goals and remedial strategies for water quality and wildlife management in a coastal lagoon--a case-study of Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark

The aim of this work is (1) to discuss approaches and tools to set management goals using operational indicators for coastal management (i.e., indicators that are easy to measure, understand and predict) and validated predictive models and (2) to discuss remedial strategies for sustainable coastal management regarding water quality and the abundance of fish, waterfowl and large aquatic plants. These approaches are exemplified using data from Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark, which has undergone two major regime shifts during the last decades. This work discusses the changes taken place during the period from 1980 to 2004 (when there are good empirical data). For Ringkøbing Fjord, which is a very shallow, well-oxygenated lagoon dominated by resuspension processes, we have targeted on the following operational indicators, which are meant to reflect seasonal median values for the entire defined coastal area (the ecosystem scale) and not conditions at individual sites or data from shorter time periods: Secchi depth (as a standard measure of water clarity) and chlorophyll-a concentrations (as a key measure of algal biomass). The operational indicators are regulated by a set of standard abiotic factors, such as salinity, suspended particulate matter (SPM), nutrient concentrations (N and P), coastal morphometry and water exchange. Such relationships are quantified using well-tested, general quantitative models, which illustrate how these indicators are interrelated and how they reflect fundamental aspects of coastal ecosystems. We demonstrate that the regime shift in the lagoon can be modelled and quantitatively explained and is related to changes in salinity and nutrient inflow. A very important threshold is linked to increased salinities in the lagoon. For example, when the mean annual salinity is higher than about 9.5‰, large numbers of saltwater species of clams can survive and influence the structure and function of the ecosystem in profound ways. The model also illustrates the dynamic response to changes in nutrient loading. We have presented several management strategies with the goal of keeping the Secchi depth at 2 m, which would stimulate the growth of higher aquatic plants, which are fundamental for fish production and bird abundance in the lagoon. Given the fact that the Secchi depth depends on many variable factors (temperature, TP-inflow from land, salinity, changes in biomasses of macrophytes and clams, which are accounted for in these simulations), our results indicate that in practice it will likely be very difficult to reach that goal. However, it would be realistic to maintain a Secchi depth of 1.5 m if the variability in salinity is minimized and the mean salinity is kept at about 10.2‰.     

Pathways of system transformation: Strategic agency to support regime change

There is a well-recognised need to transform existing systems of production and consumption towards a more sustainable orientation. However, there is much uncertainty about how to achieve sustainability transitions in practice, and what transition advocates and actors can do to catalyse and steer regime transformation. We therefore need evidence of how transitions are operationalised, in order to better understand the on-ground dynamics of regime change. To address this gap, this research paper examines three contemporary cases of transformational change in the Australian urban water sector and the dominant strategic approach to change adopted in each city. It focuses on the strategic behaviour of actors, in particular examining how agents navigate and respond to the opportunities and constraints of their context, and what initiatives (or combination thereof) can facilitate innovation diffusion and regime transformation. The results reveal three distinct patterns of change, each of which favour particular strategic interventions by transition proponents.In order to incubate transformational change, the results suggest that actors may be best served by initially employing strategies that are immediately compatible with their existing context. However, examination of the strengths and weaknesses of each pattern confirm that no single strategic approach is in itself sufficient, and in order to embed a novel innovation and bring about regime change, actors will eventually need to broaden the range of interventions used. The results also reveal the possibility of a ‘pattern-dependence’ that actors need to deliberately work to overcome in order to fully mainstream the desired change. These findings therefore provide insight into the links between regime transformation, patterns of change and actor strategies while also offering practical guidance that can be used to inform the design and implementation of regime transformation agendas and programs.     

Linking species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change in lakes with a complex and a minimal model

To study the interaction between species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change, we focus on the question of how climate-induced shifts in key species affect the positive feedback loops that lock shallow lakes either in a transparent, macrophyte-dominated state or, alternatively, in a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. We hypothesize that climate warming will weaken the resilience of the macrophyte-dominated clear state. For the turbid state, we hypothesize that climate warming and climate-induced eutrophication will increase the dominance of cyanobacteria. Climate change will also affect shallow lakes through a changing hydrology and through climate change-induced eutrophication. We study these phenomena using two models, the full ecosystem model PCLake and a minimal dynamic model of lake phosphorus dynamics. Quantitative predictions with the complex model show that changes in nutrient loading, hydraulic loading and climate warming can all lead to shifts in ecosystem state. The minimal model helped in interpreting the non-linear behaviour of the complex model. The main output parameters of interest for water quality managers are the critical nutrient loading at which the system will switch from clear to turbid and the much lower critical nutrient loading – due to hysteresis – at which the system switches back. Another important output parameter is the chlorophyll-a level in the turbid state. For each of these three output parameters we performed a sensitivity analysis to further understand the dynamics of the complex model PCLake. This analysis showed that our model results are most sensitive to changes in temperature-dependence of cyanobacteria, planktivorous fish and zooplankton. We argue that by combining models at various levels of complexity and looking at multiple aspects of climate changes simultaneously we can develop an integrated view of the potential impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.     

On the sudden disappearance of Egeria densa from a Ramsar wetland site of Southern Chile: A climatic event trigger model

Contemporary shallow lakes theory proposes that these ecosystems may experience abrupt regime shifts due to small changes in controlling variables or triggers. So far, these triggers have been related mostly to nutrients as the immediate driver. During May 2004 the río Cruces wetland, a Ramsar site located in Southern Chile, underwent a major regime shift, from a clear water state, vastly dominated by the invasive macrophyte Egeria densa, to a turbid water state. In this article we show, through the analysis of long-term meteorological data that late fall 2004 was anomalous due to the presence of a high-pressure cell that persisted most of the month of May over Southern Chile. This climatic event caused an almost complete absence of precipitations and lower temperatures during this period, including several freezing nights. Eco-physiological experiments showed that 6 h exposure to desiccation kill the macrophyte. We developed a simple-biology dynamic model, under Stella Research 9.1, to show that the climatic anomaly of May 2004, plus the increased sedimentation of the wetland's floodplains, and the associated response of E. densa, explains its sudden disappearance from río Cruces wetland.     

复杂岩溶矿床延深水平涌水量的预测

随着岩溶矿床的延深开采,矿坑涌水量的计算成为防治水害首先要解决的难题。文章创造性地采用国外广泛采用的岩溶水衰减动态分析法,选择了我国南方复杂岩溶含水层中有代表性的重庆市红岩煤矿,将丛林采区茅口组岩溶水动力单元和该单元南大巷(标高+370 m)的茅口灰岩岩溶含水层的主要排水点-1号突水点作为研究对象,建立了该单元岩溶含水层的计算模型-衰减动态(流量和水位)方程,求出了岩溶水动力单元水均衡、地下水储量计算和矿坑涌水量预测的水文地质参数:a、T、K、S、μ、Ie,建立了该单元岩溶裂隙-管道水的水均衡方程, 根据连续观察一个水文年以上的丰富地下水动态资料,预测了红岩煤矿370 m标高以下的延伸开采水平(295- 370 m)矿坑涌水量。     

A simulation model for projecting changes in salinity concentrations and species dominance in the coastal margin habitats of the Everglades

Sharp boundaries typically separate the salinity tolerant mangroves from the salinity intolerant hardwood hammock species, which occupy the similar geographical areas of southern Florida. Evidence of strong feedback between tree community-type and the salinity of the unsaturated (vadose) zone of the soil suggests that a severe disturbance that significantly tilts the salinity in the vadose zone might cause a shift from one vegetation type to the other. In this study, a model based upon the feedback dynamics between vegetation and salinity of the vadose zone of the soil was used to take account of storm surge events to investigate the mechanisms that by which this large-scale disturbance could affect the spatial pattern of hardwood hammocks and mangroves. Model simulation results indicated that a heavy storm surge that completely saturated the vadose zone at 30 ppt for 1 day could lead to a regime shift in which there is domination by mangroves of areas previously dominated by hardwood hammocks. Lighter storm surges that saturated the vadose zone at less than 7 ppt did not cause vegetation shifts. Investigations of model sensitivity analysis indicated that the thickness of the vadose zone, coupled with precipitation, influenced the residence time of high salinity in the vadose zone and therefore determined the rate of mangrove domination. The model was developed for a southern Florida coastal ecosystem, but its applicability may be much broader.     

Depletion of coastal predatory fish sub-stocks coincided with the largest sea urchin grazing event observed in the NE Atlantic

In this contribution, we propose fishery driven predator release as the cause for the largest grazing event ever observed in the NE Atlantic. Based on the evolving appreciation of limits to population connectivity, published and previously unpublished data, we discuss whether overfishing caused a grazer bloom of the sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) resulting in overgrazing of more than 2000 km² kelp (Laminaria hyperborea) forest along Norwegian and Russian coasts during the 1970 s. We show that coastal fisheries likely depleted predatory coastal fish stocks through modernization of fishing methods and fleet. These fish were important predators on urchins and the reduction coincided with the urchin bloom. From this circumstantial evidence, we hypothesize that coastal predatory fish were important in regulating sea urchins, and that a local population dynamics perspective is necessary in management of coastal ecosystems.