A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

分层开采工艺对地表沉降的影响研究

分层开采是厚煤开采的经典工艺,这种工艺对地表沉降的影响比较复杂。通过测试原岩物理力学参数,利用有限元软件flac3D对分层和一次采全高时地表沉降进行了数值模拟。结果表明,如果采高较小,砌体梁距煤层较近,且采完上分层后长时间停采,给顶板再生留足时间,分层开采较一次采全高对地表沉降影响要小。     

矿热炉炉壳安装作业危险性分析

为减少事故损失,必须对矿热炉安装施工危险源进行分析。基于此,对矿热炉安装工序中最重要工序炉壳安装应用作业危险性分析进行分析。将炉壳安装作业分成3大部分,用鱼刺图分析方法进行分析,总结出矿热炉炉壳安装中事故发生的主要原因并提出对策措施,以预防和减少事故的发生。     

室内空气和灰尘中全(多)氟烷基化合物的研究进展

全(多)氟烷基化合物(per(poly)fluoroalkyl substances,PFASs)在环境各个介质及人体样品中广泛被检出,近年,在室内空气和灰尘中也普遍发现PFASs.研究表明,室内空气中PFASs的含量普遍高于室外空气,室内空气和灰尘中的PFASs可能是室外空气的污染来源及人体暴露源,因此室内环境中PFASs成为环境领域的又一个研究热点.但目前为止,我国还没有开展室内空气中PFASs的相关研究,室内灰尘中PFASs的研究也相对较少.本文就室内空气和灰尘中PFASs的采样与分析方法、污染现状、来源分析及人体暴露等4个方面进行了综合阐述,以期为我国室内环境中PFASs的研究提供参考.     

Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

焦化废水处理过程中固相物质的形成及处置方法评价

焦化废水处理过程中产生的焦油、污泥和结晶杂盐等固相物质,既有资源属性,又有污染特性,但目前缺乏基于能源、经济及环境影响方面的评估.本研究阐述了3类固相物质的形成机制,建立了质量当量计算及处置方法评价模型.以宝武集团韶关钢铁股份有限公司焦化厂（二期）焦化废水处理工程的A/O/H/O（厌氧/好氧/水解/好氧）流化床工艺作为考察对象,利用工程运行参数和水质统计数据进行固相物质的产量推算,结果发现,焦油、物化污泥、生物污泥（含水率为80%）和工业杂盐的产率分别为0.186、5.80、4.24和1.97 kg·m^-3.通过处置方法评价模型明确了焦油焚烧、污泥热解、结晶杂盐分盐提纯后工业应用是最佳处置方案,在60 m³·h^-1废水处理规模的固相物质处置过程中,每年约产生1177 MWh的能源,获得135.0万元的经济效益,排放627.0 t CO₂,表明能源回收、经济效益和环境影响的协同存在.     

地下水波动带中细菌群落结构与水质响应关系

为揭示地下水波动带中细菌群落结构特征及其与地下水环境相互作用关系,选取哈尔滨市第一水源地作为研究区,采集地下水样品以及波动带不同深度（0~5m非饱和带和6~50m饱和带）含水介质样品,分别用于水化学分析和16S rRNA细菌高通量测序,依托冗余分析定量表述地下水质参数与细菌群落相关性.水化学分析结果显示,研究区地下水主要污染物为Fe、Mn、NH₄⁺和有机质,Fe、Mn超标与研究区特定地质背景有关,NH₄⁺和有机质主要来源于人类活动.微生物分析结果显示,非饱和带和饱和带的细菌群落结构差异性显著,非饱和带细菌群落丰度和多样性显著高于饱和带,Proteobacteria、Bacteroidetes、Actinobacteria、Firmicutes和Acidobacteria为研究区优势门,在非饱和带和饱和带的累积相对丰度分别为82.89%和98.64%.冗余分析（RDA）结果显示,门水平上非饱和带中与水质演化强相关的细菌类群是Bacteroidetes、Proteobacteria、Actinobacteria、Verrucomicrobia,贡献率分别为15%、14.8%、8.9%和5.2%;饱和带中对地下水质演化起主要作用的类群为Bacteroidetes、Acidobacteria、Actinobacteria和Firmicutes,贡献率分别为38.4%、19.0%、10.8%和9.1%.属水平上非饱和带中的Pseudomonas和饱和带中的Flavobacterium对Fe、Mn、NH₄⁺生物转化起主导作用.本研究为揭示地下水波动带中生物地球化学作用对地下水环境的影响提供了科学依据,对地下水污染修复具有重要的意义.     

Investigation of chlorinated phenols sorption mechanisms on different layers of the Danube alluvial sediment

The characteristics of the Danube river alluvial sediment are of great importance in assessing the risk for transport of pollutants to drinking water sources. Characterization of the sediment column layers has shown that the alluvial sediment, sampled near the city of Novi Sad, is a mesoporous sandy material with certain differences in the properties of individual layers. In order to investigate the sorption mechanisms of four chlorinated phenols (CPs) on the alluvial deposit, static sorption experiments were performed at pH 4, 7 and 10. The results of sorption experiments, confirmed by principal components analysis sugest different mechanisms govern the sorption process at different pH conditions. This can be attributed to the molecular characteristics of CPs, geosorbent properties and to variations in the surface charge of the sorbent at different pH conditions.