热辐射的破坏准则和池火灾的破坏半径

热辐射破坏是发生在开放气环境中的池火灾的主要破坏机理。本文讨论了热辐射的破坏准则，提出预测池火灾破坏半径的方法，进行了数值模拟计算，分而和时纳了池火灾的基本规律     

风险评价标准值初探

提出了风险指标和ALARP原则的含义,从风险评价的ALARP原则出发,得出个人风险评价标准值和社会风险评价标准值的制定方法。     

化工企业风险可接受标准研究

分析归纳了一些国家和地区个体风险和社会风险,首次提出以人群自然死亡率为基础,确定个体风险制定的基础,把化工企业个体风险分为三类,分别为单个或少量暴露人员场所、居住类高密度场所和特别敏感的目标对应的个体风险,与国家安全生产监督管理总局规定危险化学品重大危险源产生的个体风险基本吻合.采用ALARP原则,合理确定社会风险并划分为不可接受区、尽可能降低区和风险可容许区.风险标准值的制定为企业风险管理和风险决策提供更加有意义的参考,也为化工企业开展定量风险评估提供技术支撑.     

Integration of ecological–biological thresholds in conservation decision making

In the Anthropocene, coupled human and natural systems dominate and only a few natural systems remain relatively unaffected by human influence. On the one hand, conservation criteria based on areas of minimal human impact are not relevant to much of the biosphere. On the other hand, conservation criteria based on economic factors are problematic with respect to their ability to arrive at operational indicators of well‐being that can be applied in practice over multiple generations. Coupled human and natural systems are subject to economic development which, under current management structures, tends to affect natural systems and cross planetary boundaries. Hence, designing and applying conservation criteria applicable in real‐world systems where human and natural systems need to interact and sustainably coexist is essential. By recognizing the criticality of satisfying basic needs as well as the great uncertainty over the needs and preferences of future generations, we sought to incorporate conservation criteria based on minimal human impact into economic evaluation. These criteria require the conservation of environmental conditions such that the opportunity for intergenerational welfare optimization is maintained. Toward this end, we propose the integration of ecological–biological thresholds into decision making and use as an example the planetary‐boundaries approach. Both conservation scientists and economists must be involved in defining operational ecological–biological thresholds that can be incorporated into economic thinking and reflect the objectives of conservation, sustainability, and intergenerational welfare optimization.     

Modeled Summer Background Concentration of Nutrients and Suspended Sediment in the Mid‐Continent (USA) Great Rivers1

Angradi, Ted R., David W. Bolgrien, Matt A. Starry, and Brian H. Hill, 2012. Modeled Summer Background Concentration of Nutrients and Suspended Sediment in the Mid‐Continent (USA) Great Rivers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 1054‐1070. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00669.x Abstract: We used regression models to predict summer background concentration of total nitrogen (N), total phosphorus (P), and total suspended solids (TSS), in the mid‐continent great rivers: the Upper Mississippi, the Lower Missouri, and the Ohio. From multiple linear regressions of water quality indicators with land use and other stressor variables, we determined the concentration of the indicators when the predictor variables were all set to zero — the y‐intercept. Except for total P on the Upper Mississippi River, we could predict background concentration using regression models. Predicted background concentration of total N was about the same on the Upper Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers (430 μg l^?1), which was lower than percentile‐based values, but was similar to concentrations derived from the response of sestonic chlorophyll a to great river total N concentration. Background concentration of total P on the Lower Missouri (65 μg l^?1) was also lower than published and percentile‐based concentrations. Background TSS concentration was higher on the Lower Missouri (40 mg l^?1) than the other rivers. Background TSS concentration on the Upper Mississippi (16 mg l^?1) was below a threshold (30 mg l^?1) designed to protect aquatic vegetation. Our model‐predicted concentrations for the great rivers are an attempt to estimate background concentrations for water quality indicators independent from thresholds based on percentiles or derived from stressor‐response relationships.     

建筑火灾风险评价体系的建立与应用探讨

探讨基于安全系统工程思想的建筑火灾风险评价指标体系的建立方法,并在该基础上,通过专家打分和层次分析法,计算得出各指标因子的权重值。根据有关标准和规范,对各评价指标因子进行等级划分,并设计出建筑火灾风险综合分值评分表,为厘定火灾保险费率提供依据。笔者的研究成果为完善建筑火灾风险评价方法、制定财产保险火灾风险评价标准等提供了科学依据。     

基于模糊评价的VDT系统搜索策略绩效形成机理研究

为优化视觉显示终端（VDT）结构性搜索界面的布局,提高作业绩效和安全,设计了VDT系统搜索实验,构建了搜索目标位置在4个主观偏好指标下的Pythagorean模糊集决策矩阵,运用交互式多准则决策（TODIM）法计算各目标位置偏好的总体优势度并排序;同时对VDT系统搜索实验中各目标位置的绩效进行方差分析并排序,分析系统搜索策略下作业者对目标位置的主观偏好与绩效之间的关系。研究结果表明:基于系统搜索策略的VDT作业绩效在不同目标位置差异显著;导致绩效差异的根本原因是作业者对搜索目标位置的主观偏好度,而不是搜索目标的位置属性;除中心区域外,偏好度高的区域搜索绩效要优于偏好度低的区域。     

多氯联苯污染沉积物质量评价研究进展

介绍了多氯联苯污染沉积物质量评价的研究进展 ,其中 ,简单介绍了多氯联苯的有关概况及环境行为、沉积物质量评价方法及基准研究进展 ;最后 ,重点介绍了包括多氯联苯在内的憎水性有机物污染沉积物质量评价的研究现状及存在问题。     

我国淡水生物氨氮基准研究

主要采用美国水生生物基准技术,结合美国氨氮水质基准数学模型,利用我国水生生物的氨氮毒性数据,对我国淡水生物氨氮基准进行了研究.共搜集了35种淡水生物的氨氮急性毒性数据和7种慢性毒性数据,得出的氨氮水质基准表现为以水体pH值和温度为自变量的函数,在pH 6.5～9.0、温度0～30℃的取值范围内,我国氨氮急性和慢性基准的...     

镉的淡水水生生物水质基准研究

镉是一种有毒重金属,具有高毒性、难降解和易残留等特点,会对水生生物及水生态系统产生有害影响.为有效控制镉给水生生物带来的不利影响,亟需开展镉的水生生物基准研究,为水质标准的制订提供依据. 以我国淡水生态系统及其生物区系为保护对象,结合大量国内外文献报道的镉对我国淡水生物区系中代表物种的毒理学数据,运用评价因子法、毒性百分数排序法和物种敏感度分布法等当前国际上广泛使用的基准推导方法,研究我国淡水中镉的基准值及其推导过程. 结果表明:评价因子法得出的基准值为单值,其值为0.15 μg/L;毒性百分数排序法得出的基准值包括基准最大浓度和基准连续浓度,二者分别为7.30和0.12 μg/L;物种敏感度分布法得出的基准值分为短期危险浓度和长期危险浓度,二者分别为32.50和0.46 μg/L. 比较了3种方法的优缺点,以及与国内外已有研究基准值之间的差异及形成原因,分析了影响镉的水生生物基准的关键因素.