Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

Fluctuations of Population Size and Structure in the Northern Mole Vole: Preliminary Analysis

Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants.     

大兴安岭5种乔木树种燃烧释放PM2.5中水溶性元素特性

采用自主设计的生物质燃烧实验装置,在不同燃烧状态（明燃、阴燃）下,对大兴安岭林区5种典型乔木树种的不同部位（枝、叶、皮）燃烧释放PM_2.5中的水溶性元素特性进行研究.结果显示,不同树种间PM_2.5的排放因子差异显著,排放范围为（2.408±0.854）~（9.227±1.172）g/kg.5种乔木树种燃烧释放PM_2.5中主要检测到Mg、Ca、K等16 种元素,其中Ca、K、Zn、Mg 4种元素的排放因子明显大于其它元素.不同树种间元素排放因子差异较大,针叶树的排放因子一般高于阔叶树.除Cd元素外,不同器官间排放的元素总量无明显差异.不同树种不同器官燃烧释放PM_2.5中水溶性元素的占比顺序较为一致,其中Ca、K、Zn和Mg 4种元素的排放因子在枝、叶、皮中均较高.此外,燃烧状态对元素排放特征影响较大,Li、Mg、Ca等7种元素的排放因子均表现为明燃显著高于阴燃.     

Modelling of Materials Policies

This paper discusses the REAP1 model and its application for the analysis of CO₂ reduction and waste management policies for Japanese petrochemicals. The pros and cons of this modelling approach in comparison to other tools is elaborated. This is followed by a discussion of the model code and the modelling results. The results show that CO₂ policies can have significant impacts on waste flows and waste policies can have significant CO₂ benefits. As a consequence both effects must be considered in policy assessment. Pricing instruments are recommended instead of regulations because of the complex physical relations in the materials life cycle that extend beyond sector boundaries. A taxation approach is superior to a subsidy approach because rebound effects can be avoided.     

Derivation of Nutrient Guidelines for Streams in Victoria, Australia

Human induced increases to nutrientconcentrations in streams have led to many agenciesdeveloping strategies and criteria for nutrientreduction. National or statewide guidelines aregenerally inappropriate, due to the natural variabilityin stream ecosystems within political boundaries. Thisstudy used an extant aquatic macroinvertebrate-basedregionalisation for the state of Victoria, Australia, asthe basis for defining regions of relatively homogeneousenvironmental character. This enabled the selection ofecologically-based regional reference sites andsubsequent characterisation of the nutrient status ofthese sites. Using an extensive biological and nutrientdata base for streams across the State, we calculated50th and 75th percentile concentrations forreference sites within each region. Using thesepercentiles in conjunction with impact and recoverystudies, we defined nutrient guidelines for each region. Although the nutrient data largely supported thebiological regionalisation, patterns in the nutrient datadid require some minor modifications for the nutrientregions. Relatively unimpacted regions with referencesites in very good-to excellent-condition were assignedguidelines largely based on the 75th percentiles. The more impacted regions, where best availablereference sites were of poorer quality, were assignedguidelines based largely on the 50th percentiles. Professional judgement and known extents of impactsacross each region provided important contributions tothe decision-making process. The derived guidelineconcentrations are comparable to several cited in theliterature and are proposed for use in monitoring,assessment and restoration targets.     

Biological complexity confounds the separation of point- and non-point sources of human impact on the natural world

Identifying process from pattern is one of the most vexing tasks inenvironmental monitoring. Given information on the distribution of speciesin a pre-defined area, together with comprehensive data on how environmentalconditions in that area have altered through time, is it possible toidentify the factors controlling the species‘ layout? Here, the practicalsignificance of this quandary is demonstrated using a series ofenvironmentally-degraded coastal lagoons in New South Wales. The TuggerahLakes (33°17′S,151°30′E) have over the last 50 yearsexperienced significant changes in species‘ distributions. Seagrasses,macroalgae, phytoplankton, molluscs, prawns and the jellyfish Catostylus mosaicus have altered in spatial pattern. Two human activitieshave been blamed for these perturbations: (1) agricultural clearance ofnative vegetation from the catchment, with associated input of top-soil andnutrients; (2) the commissioning of a coal-fired power station in 1967, withmassive uptake and recirculation of lake water for cooling purposes. In thispaper, spatial changes in macrophyte distributions over the last 50 yearsare reviewed in an attempt to identify the true source(s) of perturbation.The model adopted assumes that the power station is a point source of impactwhile nutrient inputs from the catchment are a diffuse source of impact;changes in species distributions can hypothetically be related back to thesesources according to whether they are localised or widespread. However,after a comprehensive analysis of available macrophyte data derived frominterviews, aerial photography and line transect methodologyies theconclusion is reached that changes in biogeographical pattern around theTuggerah Lakes cannot be attributed to specific anthropogenic pressures atanything beyond the coarsest of levels. This is considered to be the normfor most coastal management situations where natural background variation(’noise‘) and the complexity of linkages between physical, chemical andbiological components confounds the identification of causal relationships.The practical implications of this conclusion are discussed in the contextof litigation and remedial management design. Emphasis is placed on theneed to adopt an adaptive approach to estuarine management, incorporatingexplicit recognition of the limitations of available data, and to developnew techniques for identifying cause-effect relationships.     

我国热带地区胶—茶—鸡农林复合系统物质循环研究

以海南省文昌市典型的胶—茶—鸡农林复合模式为研究对象 ,以单作胶园、胶茶间作园为对照 ,采用定量研究与定性分析相结合的方法 ,研究其物质循环规律。结果表明 ,胶—茶—鸡农林复合系统的氮、磷输入、输出量最大 ,系统外物质投入率比另两系统明显减少 ,系统内养分循环量增加 ,因此 ,该系统具有较合理的物质循环结构。     

The feasibility of including sustainability in LCA for product development

The feasibility of combining the concept of sustainability principles and the methodology of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is examined. The goal is to achieve an operational tool that incorporates sustainability in product development and strategic planning. While the method outlined has the structure of LCA, it emphasises aspects and parameters often omitted from traditional LCA. The analysis and results can be either qualitative or semi-quantitative. Although a qualitative analysis is less time consuming, it can still highlight the important issues. Qualitative information, which is easily lost in a quantitative analysis, can be emphasised. One of the conclusions is that the method is well suited for screening analysis.     

Integrated nutrient management and waste recycling for restoring soil fertility and productivity in Japanese mint and mustard sequence in Uttar Pradesh, India

Supplementing the nutrient requirement of crops through organic manures plays a key role in sustaining soil fertility, and crop productivity and reducing use of fossil fuels. Field experiments were conducted for 2 years at two different locations (i.e. Lucknow and Pantnagar) in Uttar Pradesh, India. The objectives of the study were to assess the herb and essential oil yields of Japanese mint (Mentha arvensis cv. Hy 77), and its nutrient accumulation under single and combined applications of organic manures and inorganic fertilizers (NPK). Changes in physical and chemical characteristics of the soils (Fluvisols, Mollisols) were also determined. Eight treatments comprising different combinations of NPK through inorganic fertilizers and farm yard manure (FYM) were compared. The distilled waste of mint after extraction of essential oil was recycled to soils in the plots to supplement the nutritional requirement of the succeeding mustard crop (Brassica juncea cv. Pusa Bold). Herb and essential oil yield of mint were significantly higher with combined application of organic and inorganic sources of nutrients as compared to single applications. Accumulation of N and P was at par under full inorganic and combined supply whereas, K accumulation was higher with the former. Soil organic C and pH after harvest of mint did not significantly differ among the treatments, but the level of mineralizable N, Olsen-P and NH₄OAc extractable K were higher in soil with integrated supply of nutrients. Significant increase in soil water stable aggregates, organic C, available NPK and microbial biomass, and decrease in soil bulk density were observed with waste recycling over fertilizer application. These benefits were reflected in the seed and stubble yield of mustard which succeeded mint. This study indicates that combined application of inorganic fertilizers with organics helps in increasing the availability of nutrients and crop yield and provides a significant effect to the succeeding crop. Similarly, recycling crop residues reduces the need for fossil fuel based fertilizer, and helps in sustaining and restoring soil fertility in terms of available nutrients and major physical and chemical characteristics of the soil.     

沈阳张士污灌区镉循环的分室模型与污染防治对策研究

对沈阳张士污灌区大气、水、土壤和生物各分室中Ｃｄ的库存量和各分室间Ｃｄ的循环通量进行了研究，建立了土壤－水稻系统中Ｃｄ流分室模型。该模型表明，Ⅱ闸和Ⅲ闸地区土壤分室中Ｃｄ的库存增量均为正值。可见，该污灌区近年来Ｃｄ污染程度由于污水灌溉仍然处于加剧的趋势。研究最后指出，该污灌区Ｃｄ的污染防治对策主要是减少污水灌溉量、进一步降低灌溉水中Ｃｄ的浓度和通过富Ｃｄ植物收获带走Ｃｄ．其中，以野生苋的收获带走Ｃｄ最有意义，它可使Ⅱ闸和Ⅲ闸地区Ｃｄ的下降速率分别依次达到２９．４９和２２．８１ｍｇ／（ｍ￣２·ａ）。