CDM in the Kyoto Negotiations:

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has its origins in the decade of UNFCCC negotiations. ‘Joint implementation’ and ‘activities implemented jointly pilot’ opened the door for the project-based mechanisms between developed and developing countries. The US proposal of the Joint Implementation in the Kyoto Protocol negotiations was almost identical with CDM approved in Kyoto; however, a detour around the Clean Development Fund (CDF) concept raised by Brazil in the negotiations catalyzed the mutual understanding on the win-win nature of the concept of joint implementation.CDM has been played an important role to bridge the developed and developing countries in its development process initiated as the joint implementation in the UNFCCC, and can lead to the cooperative future in the implementation stage starting from the year 2003, including the development of future commitments beyond 2013. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

梯齿形桥梁伸缩缝U形弯曲件的成形技术

此文介绍一种新型桥梁伸缩缝关键零件U形弯曲件的成形技术.通过对该零件的变形分析和采用合理的工艺措施,使得这一成形难度较大的弯曲件一次压制获得成功.     

滞洪型平原水库蓄水对水环境影响分析及其协同调控研究

本文通过滞洪型水库运行机理的介绍,以石佛寺水库为例,提出利用地表水和地下水协同调控解决蓄水带来的环境负效应,通过建立库区水环境统一模型,利用数值模拟方法分析预测水库蓄水对环境的影响,并对解决水库蓄水产生的环境负效应进行方案的优化选择,最终提出地表水库蓄水和地下水库供水的最优方案.     

电热管焊接接头挤压裂纹的分析

针对电热管焊接接头挤压产生的裂纹 ,通过采用金相显微镜观察其金相组织并用直读光谱对原材料成分进行化学成分分析 ,排除了成分、焊接工艺规范等的影响。经过对挤压过程分析 ,发现应力集中点是产生裂纹的主要原因 ,并提出了改进的方法     

水深变化对波高与周期联合概率密度分布影响的分析

本文研究了水深的变化以波高与周期联合概率密度分布造成影响。本文将２３６组实测数据按水深因子Ｈ的大小进行了分组，分别对其进行了谱分析和统计分析，得到了各组数据的联合分布图。利用数值模拟的方法扩大水深因子的变化幅度，得到了模拟联合分布图。研究发现，水深因子的改变不会对联合分布构成大的影响，因此得现一般水的波高与周期联合概率密度分布模式适用于浅海的结论。     

城乡接合部居民楼火灾风险评价及防控对策研究

为了准确探究城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故致因机理,预防与控制城乡接合部日常生产与生活过程中引发火灾事故的有效途径,建立信息面更全、实际性更强的火灾风险评估模型是目前行之有效的手段。基于湖南省某地发生火灾事故的实际情况,根据事故树分析法,以城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故为顶事件构建事故树,计算得到事故树的最小割集、最小径集和结构重要度,研究城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故的发生模式、致因因素及影响程度,为改善城乡接合部居民楼火灾安全提供重要的理论依据,并提出相应的防控措施及对策。     

区域大气污染联防联控的理论与方法分析

区域性、复合型大气污染是中国目前以及今后一段时期内所面临的主要大气污染问题,但我国现行"属地"特征的环境管理制度无法满足区域性、复合型大气污染所需要的合作解决问题的要求,因此亟需建立区域大气污染联防联控机制。本文探讨了区域大气污染联防联控的理论基础,并着重讨论了我国实施区域联防联控的技术与方法,包括联防联控区域划分方法、区域大气环境问题控制技术、区域总量控制目标确定与分配方法及区域大气污染联防联控保障体系等。     

基于析因设计的多种重金属对发光菌联合毒性研究

文章采用析因设计的方法,研究沉积物水浸提液掺杂的多种重金属Cu、Cd、Zn、Pb和Ni对发光菌的联合毒性。通过对试验结果进行方差分析和多元线性回归,建立了重金属浓度和发光菌发光抑制率的关系模型:T=97.983Cu+41.111Cd-27.297Zn+129.869Pb+16.715Ni-5 803.639Cu*Cd+2 270.182Cd*Zn-6 411.870Cd*Pb-675.052Cd*Ni-3 108.544Pb*Ni+15 9552.434Cd*Pb*Ni+274 718.434Zn*Pb*Ni。模型分析结果表明:Zn对联合毒性产生负的影响,Cu、Cd、Pb、Ni对联合毒性具有正的贡献;Cd*Zn二元交互作用和Cd*Pb*Ni、Zn*Pb*Ni三元交互作用表现为协同作用,Cu*Cd、Cd*Pb、Cd*Ni、Pb*Ni二元交互作用表现为拮抗作用,而重金属四元和五元交互作用对联合毒性的贡献不显著。上述重金属联合毒性的作用可为沉积物中重金属复合污染控制提供参考。     

联合执法机制在区域环境利益平衡中的应用

在追求环境效应与经济发展获得＂双赢＂的今天,跨行政区域联合执法已经成为平衡区域环境利益、妥善解决区域间环境纠纷,进而促进环境与经济协调发展的重要手段。本文提出了包括组建联合执法小组、主持联合执法会议、建立信息共享平台和实现联合监测的联合执法机制,并概括地阐述了确立长效性执法主体、先期处理制度、联合执法活动、活动监督、异议处理和惩罚制度的具体执行程序。试图利用联合执法的机制来解决区域间环境利益失衡的难题,以期为决策者提供相应的理论支持或政策参考。