洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Increased fetal nuchal fold leading to prenatal diagnosis of ring chromosome 15

We report on the prenatal diagnosis of ring chromosome 15 in a fetus with increased nuchal fold and intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). A 27-year-old woman gravida 2, para 1 had normal maternal serum screen tests in the early second trimester of the index pregnancy. Fetal nuchal fold thickening up to 8 mm was incidentally found during the routine obstetric ultrasound scan at 20 weeks' gestation. Amniocentesis was undertaken and the fetal karyotype was found to be 46,XY,r(15) on cytogenetic study. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) using a telomeric probe of chromosome 15 demonstrated a terminal deletion on the q arm of the ring-shaped chromosome 15. This is the first report of a prenatally diagnosed case of ring chromosome 15. Moreover, nuchal fold thickness in the second trimester may have a role in its prenatal diagnosis. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

上海市机动车污染实时排放预警系统设计与应用

研究上海市机动车污染的动态排放测算和网格化动态排放清单构建,在实时的交通数据和交通环境监测数据的基础上,结合交通模型、机动车排放清单模型等业务模型和算法,依托大数据存储、可视化和GIS等技术,开发了上海市机动车污染物实时排放预警系统,实现了上海市全市道路的机动车动态排放测算、交通环境政策实施情景模拟和网格化排放清单,更新频率为每30 min一次,包含PM、NOx、CO、SO2、VOCs等污染物和9种车型。系统建成后直接服务于首届中国国际进口博览会,为大气污染排放实时总量跟踪评估、污染源管控措施分析及监测成因分析等提供了有力的实时数据和技术支撑。     

Study on the effect of porous fence on air quality and traffic noise level around a double-decked road structure

Fence for traffic noise control sometimes causes adverse effect on air pollution. Thus in this study, performance of porous fence as a tool for control of both air pollution and noise pollution was evaluated. A two-dimensional numerical model for flow and pollutant concentration and an analytical model for traffic noise were utilized in the analysis of a double-decked road structure with fences only at ground (Case 1) and at both ground and upper deck (Case 2). Porous fences were assumed only at the ground level since the solid fences at the upper deck usually leads to desirable result on air pollution. Effects of the variable porosity on air quality and noise level near road were evaluated. Obtained results showed: (1) flow pattern in leeward of fence was drastically changed at 40–50% porosity in Case 1 and 50% in Case 2. The porosity larger than 40% excluded presence of a circulation behind the fence. (2) Effect of porous fence on air pollution was different in Cases 1 and 2. In Case 1, the porous fence generally resulted in the reduction of air pollution at the ground level; on the other hand, in Case 2, it rather led to increase of the concentration. (3) Traffic noise level was also largely changed by the porosity of the fence; an example of simultaneous evaluation of the effects of porous fence on both air and noise pollution in Case 1 showed that the fence of 60% porosity leads to reduction of air pollution by 20% compared with solid fence case, and reduction of noise pollution by 4–6% in dB compared with no fence case, at l m high and 10 m from the road.     

高速公路互通立交交通噪声预测研究——以昆明绕城高速公路为例

道路交通噪声污染在我国城市地区已很严重。高速公路互通立交运营期的交通噪声比较突出。对几个交通噪声的预测模型进行比较和选择,并以昆明绕城高速公路为例,预测和分析了其互通立交的交通噪声,为噪声污染防治提供了依据。     

公路交通噪声的污染控制

从多角度提出了治理公路交通噪声污染的控制对策，指出只有综合治理才能最大限度地控制交通噪声污染。     

乌兰浩特市道路交通噪声污染现状及其控制措施

本文通过对乌兰浩特市道路交通噪声污染现状的调查，分析了造成交通噪声污染的各种因素。提出了若干防治措施和建议。     

交通环境的法律治理与道德约束

通过分析交通环境所面临的严重问题后认为，首先必须运用法律治理手段纠正由市场失灵导致的交通环境问题，但这种强制性手段有其缺陷，因为交通环境的治理也存在道德问题，只有配合以道德约束，德法兼备，才能进行卓有成效的交通环境治理。     

资源环境约束下的西北农业结构调整与产业化发展对策

西北地区农业资源有5个优势和水资源短缺、生态环境脆弱、区位偏僻、社会资源贫瘠四大制约因素。在资源约束下,农业结构调整与优化的3个主导方向是强化农牧结合,大力发展食草性畜牧业;发展高附加值、创汇型园艺植物;扩大农业空间,稳步发展沙漠农业。同时强调农业产业化,一要扩大产业化门路,二要延长产业链,三要提高档次。并提出改善、保护生态环境,发展生态经济型农业等5个方面的对策。     

上海城市交通与机动车排气污染调查

上海市机动车保有量逐年增加，车辆的排气污染愈来愈严重，据调查，１９９７年机动画排放的ＣＯ，ＭＮＨＣ，ＮＯＸ和ＰＭ分别达到５８．６，９．０８，６．２０和０．２３万吨。中心城区机动车排放的ＣＯ，ＮＭＨＣ和ＮＯＸ污染物５０％以上来自于小型车，是影响上海城区环境空气质量的主要污染源。