An evaluation of environmental factors affecting species distributions

Many different models can be built to explain the distributions of species. Often there is no single model that is clearly better than the alternatives, and this leads to uncertainty over which environmental factors are limiting species’ distributions. We investigated the support for different environmental factors by determining the drop in model performance when selected predictors were excluded from the model building process. We used a paired t-test over 37 plant species so that an environmental factor was only deemed significant if it consistently improved the results for multiple species. Geology and winter minimum temperatures were found to be the environmental factors with the most support, with a significant drop in model performance when either of these factors was excluded. However, there was less support for summer maximum temperature, as other environmental factors could combine to produce similar model performance. Our method of evaluating environmental factors using multiple species will not be capable of detecting predictors that are only important for one or two species, but it is difficult to distinguish these from spurious correlations. The strength of the method is that it increases inference for factors that consistently affect the distributions of many species. We discourage the assessment of models against predefined benchmarks, such as an area under the curve (AUC) of more than 0.7, as many alternative models for the same species produce similar results. Therefore, the benchmarks do not provide any indication of how the performance of the selected model compares to alternative models, and they provide weak inference to accept any selected model.     

Ventilation theory and dispersion modelling applied to hazardous area classification

Critical formulae given in the current Explosive Atmospheres Hazardous Area Classification Standard IEC 60079-10-1 (2008) [BS EN 60079-10-1, 2009] to determine the expected gas cloud volume which is used to determine area classification do not have any scientific justification. The standard does allow the alternative use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods, which serve to compound the concern with these formulae: the predicted volume of the gas cloud from CFD models being several orders of magnitude smaller than that given by the formulae in question. To resolve such major discrepancies, replacement of the current formulae with a scientifically validated approach is proposed. Integral models of dispersion and ventilation have been used routinely for many years in the analysis of major hazards in the chemical industry. This paper presents an adaptation of these models to determine the expected volume of a gas cloud arising from a release of gas from a pressurised source. A very simple integral jet model is presented for outdoor dispersion, extended to the case of indoor dispersion, from which the volume of the gas cloud is derived. The single free parameter, an entrainment coefficient, is fixed by comparison with data on a free jet, and then predictions of the model are compared with CFD calculations (which themselves have been validated against experimental data) for dispersion within an enclosed volume. The results of this simple integral model are seen to agree very well with the CFD predictions. The methodology presented here is therefore proposed as a scientifically validated approach to Hazardous Area Classification.     

20世纪90年代以来粤港澳大湾区臭氧污染研究进展

粤港澳大湾区是我国开放程度最高、经济活力最强的区域之一,在国家发展大局中具有重要战略地位.20世纪90年代以来,粤港澳三地政府在空气质量监测、空气污染治理方面做了大量工作,粤港澳大湾区颗粒物浓度持续下降,但臭氧浓度快速增长,臭氧已成为粤港澳大湾区首要污染物.为深化粤港澳大湾区臭氧污染研究及臭氧污染防控,本文综述了粤港澳大湾区20世纪90年代以来臭氧污染观测研究的主要进展,回顾了臭氧监测网络建立、臭氧浓度水平及其时空变化特征、臭氧生成和污染输送的气象过程、区域臭氧来源解释等方面的研究发现,提出新时期粤港澳大湾区臭氧研究的建议.     

“一法三卡”在新喀Koniambo项目上的应用研究

新喀Koniambo项目安全管理团队在工作中不断钻研创新,以预先危险性分析法为指导,开发了JSA卡、DSTI卡、STO和Obs卡等安全检查工具用于现场安全监控,形成了项目独特的"一法三卡"管理模式,创造了连续两年无事故、无重伤的安全生产记录。以"一法三卡"的实施效果为研究对象,分析了卡片数量与可记录事件数量的对比关系,得出"一法三卡"实施管控效果越好,现场可记录事件发生率越低的结论。这一结论凸显了"一法三卡"在施工现场安全生产管控工作中的重要地位,为施工项目推行"一法三卡"提供了有力的实证论据。     

洋浦港区海域溢油环境风险评价的实践分析及其对策

通过洋浦港区的海域溢油风险评价模型,在一定的环境条件与评价参数下,预测洋浦港区的码头前沿船舶碰撞原油泄漏、成品油码头操作泄漏在三种主要不利环境组合条件下的环境风险影响行为,探讨港区环境风险的发生途径、影响过程及影响方式,分析溢油事故对洋浦海域渔业、海岸带贝类资源、洋浦盐业、洋浦海洋生态的影响以及间接对人体的危害的风险影响后果。最后,针对实践分析,提出海上溢油环境风险的防范措施。对洋浦港区的海洋生态环境的保护具有指导性与实践性的意义。     

秦巴山区生态系统服务与居民福祉耦合关系的时空变化

保护生态系统、提高居民福祉是实现联合国2030可持续发展目标的核心内容。在分析秦巴山区生态系统服务与居民福祉时空演化特征的基础上,采用弹性系数揭示了二者的时空耦合关系。研究发现：（1）1990—2018年秦巴山区水源涵养总量、土壤保持总量均呈波动下降趋势,碳储量总量则呈缓慢增长趋势,且各生态系统服务呈不同的空间分异特征。（2）1990—2018年居民福祉呈上升趋势,增幅高达220%,并呈“南高北低”的分布格局。（3）县域尺度上,三种生态系统服务与居民福祉明显不协调发展。其中,水源涵养、固碳服务与居民福祉的耦合关系均以“福祉增—服务减”为主,占比分别为88.75%、62.5%;而土壤保持服务与居民福祉的耦合关系则以“双增”为主,占比为57.5%。此外,各项生态系统服务与居民福祉反向变化区多分布于汉江河谷盆地和秦岭山脉中段。研究结果可为促进贫困山区生态系统服务与居民福祉协调发展提供决策依据。     

粤港澳大湾区飞机LTO污染排放因子及排放清单

针对2018~2019航季年粤港澳大湾区机场群,通过实际滑行时间修正和大气混合层高度对爬升/进近时间的修正,获得飞机主发动机排放因子和区内机场加权排放因子,同时考虑飞机辅助动力装置的排放,建立了区内飞机起飞着陆（LTO）污染排放清单.结果表明,区域内各机场污染物排放因子存在较大差异,主要来源于实际运行时间的修正以及各个机场不同的机型占比,其中NO_x、CO、HC、SO₂、PM 5类污染物的加权排放因子区内均值分别为17.58,8.60,0.79,1.37,0.15kg.排放量分别为15327.4,8066.7,728.4,1186.1,121.9t,绝大部分来自飞机主发动机排放.研究期内,NO_x排放量在年内呈现夏秋季高、冬春季低的变化趋势,其他污染物排放量变化较为平缓.所有污染物在各机场排放量的次序较为一致,香港、广州白云分列前两位.各机型中,区内NO_x及SO₂主要来自A320排放,所占比例分别为19.5%、17.1%;CO及HC排放占比最大的机型均为A321,分别为25.4%、27.2%;PM排放量占比最大的机型是B738,约为23.1%.     

浅谈万宝矿产有限公司海外项目相关方安全管理

随着国家“一带一路”倡议的推进,越来越多中国企业“走出去”,拓展海外市场。相关方作为海外项目安全管理的重点,存在数量多、安全管理能力参差不齐、安全管理难度大等特点。万宝矿产有限公司从相关方准入审核、过程管控、考核淘汰等全生命周期对海外项目各相关方进行规范化管理,提升了相关方安全管理水平,避免了生产安全事故,保障了项目顺利进行。     

宁夏沙湖自然保护区水生生物调查与分析

宁夏沙湖自然保护区位于平罗县，面积４２４７ｈｍ＾２，水面沼泽２７３２ｈｍ＾２。根据１９９９年７月对其进行了综合考察的统计结果，计有水生两栖类－大鲵１种，鱼类１６种，浮游植物８门２９科６１属（种）、浮游动物２９种、水生底栖无脊椎动物２９种。     

土地利用和生态系统服务功能变化研究 ——以三峡库区大宁河流域为例

将土地利用类型分类为耕地、有林地（森林地）、灌木林地、草地、迹地、水体、建设用地和未利用地8类。以遥感数据为数据源，通过自动分类和人工解译相结合的方法获取了以上土地利用类型，并对三峡库区大宁河流域的土地利用变化过程和驱动力做了分析。以Costanza等人的全球生态系统服务价值的估测结果为基础，对各种地类生态服务功能价值重新赋值，进而估算近30年大宁河流域的生态服务价值，分析了其变化过程。结果表明：近30年，大宁河流域土地利用总的变化趋势是林、灌、草地经历了不断破坏和缓慢恢复的过程，耕地面积经历了先增后减，建设用地不断扩展。经济发展、人口增长和国家政策是土地利用变化的主要原因。生态系统服务功能经历了一个先损害后恢复的过程，表现为生态服务价值从1973年到1995年不断减少，而1995年到2002年连续增加。