旱灾对水稻市场影响的评估

长江中下游地区是我国水稻主产区,该区域的旱灾将威胁到我国粮食安全。采用小波神经网络和逻辑增长模型建立了一个评估旱灾影响的干预分析模型,评估了2011年发生在该地区50年一遇的旱灾对我国主产区水稻市场的干预模式和影响强度。研究表明旱灾对我国主产区水稻市场的干预近似服从逻辑分布。旱灾发生时,市场价格并不会立刻大幅上涨,在旱灾持续约4个月后,市场价格才被快速拉升,之后逐渐过渡到平缓波动,最后市场价格刚性使得水稻价格维持在一个新的高位上波动。     

华北地区冬小麦干旱受灾率多尺度分析

以华北区域内56个气象站历年逐日降水量资料、冬小麦发育期资料以及产量资料为数据支撑,研究华北地区冬小麦干旱等级指标,并在此基础上分析不同等级干旱受灾范围变化的周期性振荡特征.首先,分析冬小麦干旱指标距平与相对气象产量间的关系,然后,制作指标距平与相对气象产量相关性大小的分布格局图,进而,根据冬小麦干旱指标负距平与减产率...     

基于傅里叶变换红外光谱技术的混合毒性气体定量分析研究

基于傅里叶变换红外光谱技术,选取低浓度的CO、CO2、NO、NO2、SO2、HCl、HBr、HCN 8种典型有毒有害气体进行定量分析.经过合理选择光谱区间、数据预处理、样本筛选以及确定模型参数后,建立PLS回归模型,并对模型回归曲线进行多项式修正.模型中各组分实际浓度与预测浓度的拟合回归系数达到0.99,校正集误差均方根SRMSEC低于15×10-6.利用验证集对模型的预测性能进行检验,样本各组分的预测浓度误差小于满量程的±2%,各组分的预测误差均方根SRMSEP不超过20×10-6.     

基于Hilbert-Huang变换和SVM的煤矸界面探测方法

为了解决综采工作面煤矸界面探测问题,提出了利用煤矸下落冲击钢板的振动特征来探测煤矸界面的新方法.煤矸振动信号表现出非平稳特征,采用EMD方法可以将复杂矿井环境下的煤矸振动加速度信号分解成固有模态分量,每个模态分量都包含了特有的时间尺度特征.将包含煤矸振动特征的前6个IMF分量的能量,结合均值、方差及峭度等时域特征值,构成9维特征模式,作为SVM分类器的输入进行训练及分类.结果表明,基于Hilbert-Huang变换的IMF分量的能量特征能够反映煤矸振动特征的差异,SVM分类方法能够准确判断煤矸混合状态.     

基于声发射技术的立柱试验过程安全性研究

液压立柱在接受型式检验时,存在因质量不过关而引发的爆缸、液压喷射等现象,给国家财产和现场检验人员人身安全带来极大威胁。为提高安全性,需对立柱试验过程进行监控,及早发现爆缸或液压喷射等迹象,特引入声发射技术对被试的立柱进行监测。声发射技术对立柱在受压过程中产生的裂纹弹性波进行捕捉、分析、处理和显示,并用时差定位方法和小波包技术对声发射信号进行处理以进一步提高定位精度。研究结果表明:该技术可以实时展现立柱缸体内部声发射源信息,帮助检验人员及时发现裂纹的产生,从而避免立柱钢筒爆裂现象发生、提高试验安全。     

Removal of cobalt(Ⅱ) ion from aqueous solution by chitosan-montmorillonite

Montmorillonite （MMT） modified with chitosan （CTS, molecular weight = S x 104） was applied to remove heavy metal cations by using Co2＋ as a model ion. An increase in MMT interlayer distance observed from X-ray diffraction indicates the intercalation of CTS into MMT. Together with the results of scanning electron microscopy and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, it was concluded that the composite material of CTS and MMT （CTS-- MMT） was prepared successfully. The mass ratio of CTS to MMT had a strong influence on the adsorption performance of CTS-MMT. The highest adsorption value of 150 mg/g was obtained over the composite material with CTS to MMT mass ratio of 0.25, which is much higher than those reported in other studies. The adsorption isotherms and kinetic results indicated that Co2＋ was adsorbed over CTS-MMT in a multilayer model, and the chemical sorption of Co2＋ was determined to be the rate-limiting step.     

Functionalized CMK-3 mesoporous carbon with 2-amino-5-mercapto-1,3,4-thiadiazole for Hg(II) removal from aqueous media

Ordered mesoporous carbon（CMK-3） was synthesized and functionalized with 2-amino-5-mercapto-1,3,4-thiadiazole groups（AMT-OCMK-3） for Hg（Ⅱ） removal from aqueous solution. The modified CMK-3 was characterized by X-ray diffraction, N2adsorption-desorption isotherm, scanning electron microscopy and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The effects of solution pH, contact time, initial Hg（Ⅱ） concentration and matrix effect were studied. The adsorption data were successfully fitted with the Langmuir model, exhibiting high adsorption capacity of 450.45 mg/g of AMT-OCMK-3. In the solid-phase extraction system a series of experimental parameters such as sample flow rate, sample volume,eluent volume and concentration of the eluent solution have been investigated and established for preconcentration of Hg（Ⅱ） in aqueous solution. The results showed that the enrichment factor for Hg（Ⅱ） was 250, the precision（relative standard deviation（RSD）, %） for six replicate measurements was 2.05% and the limit of detection for Hg（Ⅱ） was achieved at0.17 μg/L.     

Effect of TiO2 calcination temperature on the photocatalytic oxidation of gaseous NH3

Carbon-modified titanium dioxide(TiO2) was prepared by a sol-gel method using tetrabutyl titanate as precursor, with calcination at various temperatures, and tested for the photocatalytic oxidation(PCO) of gaseous NH3 under visible and UV light. The test results showed that no samples had visible light activity, while the TiO2 calcined at 400℃ had the best UV light activity among the series of catalysts, and was even much better than the commercial catalyst P25. The catalysts were then characterized by X-ray diffractometry, Brunauer-Emmett-Teller adsorption analysis, Raman spectroscopy, thermogravimetry/differential scanning calorimetry coupled with mass spectrometry, ultraviolet-visible diffuse reflectance spectra, photoluminescence spectroscopy and in situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy. It was shown that the carbon species residuals on the catalyst surfaces induced the visible light adsorption of the samples calcined in the low temperature range( 300℃). However, the surface acid sites played a determining role in the PCO of NH3 under visible and UV light over the series of catalysts. Although the samples calcined at low temperatures had very high SSA, good crystallinity, strong visible light absorption and also low PL emission intensity, they showed very low PCO activity due to their very low number of acid sites for NH3 adsorption and activation. The TiO2 sample calcined at 400℃ contained the highest number of acid sites among the series of catalysts, therefore showing the highest performance for the PCO of NH3 under UV light.     

近60a来中国洪涝灾情变化趋势持续性和周期性研究

本文利用Hurst指数和小波分析工具对洪涝灾情的1950~2010年的变化动态作了分析,揭示了灾情序列的趋势持续性、特征时间尺度、周期特征和突变点,同时还定性地预测了洪涝灾情的未来走势。研究结果发现:1)根据Hurst指数计算结果,受灾面积时间序列的Hurst指数为0.9338,具有很强的正持续性。未来有进一步增加的趋势。因灾死亡人口数时间序列的Hurst指数为0.4845,具有很弱的反持续性。而房屋倒塌间数时间序列的Hurst指数为0.6124,具有较弱的正持续性,未来有较弱的减少趋势。2)小波分析方法具有较好时空域特性,可以描述洪涝灾害灾情变化的多尺度特征,将隐含在灾情序列中随时间变化的周期震荡显现出来,并确定灾情序列中的突变点位置,为深入探索中国洪涝灾害的时空复杂性提供了全新的理论工具。3)中国洪涝灾害灾情都存在多时间尺度特征,不同的时间尺度表现为不同的循环交替,大尺度的周期变化嵌套着小尺度的周期变化。总体上表现为由小尺度的震荡剧烈,没有明显的规律到大尺度出现明显规律后继续增强或先升后降。4)60a来,中国洪涝灾害受害面积总体上保持着增加的趋势。在9a和25a上分别存在着第1和第2主周期。中国洪涝灾害因灾死亡人口总体上保持着明显减少的趋势。在8a和18a上分别存在着第1和第2主周期。中国洪涝灾害倒塌房屋总数总体上保持着减少的趋势。在8a、17a和25a上分别存在着第1、第2和第3主周期。     

贵州省雷暴日数的时空分布、周期及突变特征

利用1961—2011年贵州省87个台站地面雷暴观测资料,对该省境内雷暴日数的时空分布、周期和突变特征进行了分析。结果表明：贵州省雷暴日数年际变化较大,下降趋势显著;雷暴日数的时空分布形态不对称,92．16％正偏,峰度76．47％为正值,48a贵州区域内空间分布在0．05置信水平上服从正态分布。雷暴日数分布地域特征明显,从贵州西南部向东北方向呈梯状递减趋势,安顺市、六盘水市和黔西南州3个地区为雷暴高发区。贵州省逐年雷暴日数存在不太明显的18a左右的长周期以及4—5a和8—9a显著的周期变化。贵州省年雷暴日数的下降是一突变现象,具体是从1995年开始的,突变前后平均雷暴日数相差9．32d。