Change of Flood Patterns in China under the Influences of Climate Change and Human Activities

Based on the flood affected area （FA） data of the provinces in China from 1950 to 2005, the article discusses the change of the flood patterns in China, and investigates its relationship with climate change and human activities. The flood center shifted from North China and the Yangtze-Huaihe basin in the 1950s towards the south, north and west of China, and located in the south of the Yangtze River and South China after the 1990s. The FA in the western provinces was continuously on the rise since the 1950s. There are two characteristics for the future flood pattem in China. The pattern of ＂flood in the south and drought in the north＂ depends on the north-south shift of the maximum rainfall region in eastern China. The flood intensification to the west of Hu Huanyong＇s line mainly results from the increase of rainfall, extreme precipitation and the melting of glaciers under the background of human activity magnification.     

安康水库分级超蓄的洪水资源化方法及其风险

汛限水位动态控制是水库洪水资源化的一种重要策略,其核心是在合理权衡风险和效益这一对矛盾的基础上确定可行的水库超汛限水位调度方案。为实现相对较大效益的同时降低水库防洪风险,考虑利用流域降雨预报信息,采用预泄能力约束法,以不同的降雨预报量级为依据,提出分级超蓄的洪水资源化方法,并结合安康水库实例,求得其基于 24 h 小雨和无雨预报的分级超蓄上限分别为326 m和 328 m。通过风险分析得知：在不考虑降雨预报信息的情况下,水库超蓄上限不宜超过 327.5 m;而依据 24 h 降雨预报信息的水库超蓄风险小到可以忽略。最后,应用该超蓄方案对实际洪水进行调度,实现了在减少弃水量069亿m3的同时,增加发电收入约361万元人民币.     

1998年长江大洪水与大气环流和海温异常分析

概述了引起１９９８年长江大洪水的雨情,从天气气候角度分析了１９９８年长江流域降水异常偏多的原因。指出了最直接的原因是副高移动的反常,特别７月１５日以后副高突然南撤南海季风爆发晚,南亚和东亚季风强度偏弱、夏季赤道辐合带偏弱热带地区台风生成少、生成时间晚,     

基于NPP-VIIRS夜光遥感的洪水灾损评估及可视化

洪水灾害是世界上发生最频繁、危害最严重的自然灾害之一,快速准确获取洪水受影响区域是洪水灾损评估的重要信息,可为政府制定应急救援决策提供重要的数据支持。针对传统洪水评估方法存在的时效性差、工作量大和费时费力等不足,本研究以广西“西江2020年第1号洪水”灾情为案例,首先对NPP-VIIRS DNB夜光遥感数据进行统计量法辐射归一化处理;其次构建市级、县级尺度的人口评估模型进行模型适宜性和尺度适宜性分析,基于多项式最优模型反演受灾人口数量并进行对比验证;再其次基于洪水发生前后夜光亮度变化提取识别灾后受灾影响变化区域,并监测灾后恢复进程;最后构建灾情可视化管理系统,可实现灾情信息实时共享。研究结果可得反演受灾人口的准确率为79.4%,与新闻报道具有一致性,表明基于NPP-VIIRS夜光遥感数据评估洪水受影响区域及受灾人口的准确性较高,具有可行性;同时基于WebGIS将灯光密度、灾情统计、多媒体数据进行集成开发,实现灾情动态信息在线可视化展示,可为政府及公众及时掌握灾情进而有效制定应急救援措施提供重要的数据支持。     

Nitrogen interception in floodwater of rice field in Taihu region of China

A field experiment located in Taihu Lake Basin of China was conducted,by application of urea or a mixture of urea with manure, to elucidate the interception of nitrogen(N)export in a typical rice field through"zero-drainage water management"combined with sound irrigation,rainfall forecasting and field drying,N concentrations in floodwater rapidly declined before the first event of field drying after three split fertilizations,and subsequently tended to retum to the background level.Before the first field drying,total particulate nitrogen(TPN)was the predominant N form in floodwater of plots with no N input,dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN)on plots that received urea only,and dissolved organic nitrogen(DON)on plots treated with the mixture of urea and manure.Thereafter TPN became the major form.No N export was found from the rice field,but total nitrogen(TN)of 15.8 kg/hm~2 was remained,mainly due to soil N sorption.The results recommended the zero-drainage water management for full-scale areas for minimizing N export.     

谈我省灾后环境保护对策及建议

本文通过对98年洪灾的环境成因和洪灾对环境的危害进行分析,提出当前灾区生产活动和灾后重建中当务之急是生态环境保护和恢复建设,并提出相应对策和建议。     

陇海铁路宝鸡—天水段路基的气象灾害及路基气象综合效应研究

本文对陇海铁路宝天段路基的地质地理及气象因素进行了综合分析。认为气象因素是路基灾害的主要原因，是触发机制，尤其是路基选址不当所产生的路基气象综合效应更加重了灾害程度．文章认为，设计铁路时，不但要注意气象条件的研究，同时要模拟研究路基与气象条件相互作用所产生的气象效应．     

湖北长江经济带洪灾机制与对策探讨

根据湖北长江经济带的洪灾历史，分析了致灾原因，并提出了抗灾、减灾对策。     

从1998年大水看我国未来防洪减灾之路

透视１９９８年南北洪水，通过对自然背景因素，人口因素，防洪工程现状及经济能力限制等的系统分析，指出在今后３０－４０年间，我国防洪事务将面临空前严峻的挑战。