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鉴于作为评价对象的城市社会经济环境复合系统具有多目标、多要素、动态关联等突出的系统动力学特征,选择和应用系统动力学方法开展城市发展规划环评在理论上具有可行性和技术优势.作为典型资源型城市的山西省临汾市正面临转变发展方式和加快环境治理的紧迫要求,本文依托该市转型发展规划环评工作,在全面识别和剖析城市发展要素、现状问题及其成因基础上,以经济发展、产业结构、节能减排和环境改善为重点研究了规划要素间的动态反馈关系,以此构建城市转型发展规划环评SD模型,并对4个规划替代方案进行模拟和评价.结果显示,在环境目标刚性约束下所有替代方案均不能实现人均GDP翻番的较高经济增长目标,其中以较强环境约束为特征的"方案III"具有最好的环境与经济综合效果.据此评价建议临汾市应在确保实现环境改善目标的前提下主动放缓工业增长速度,同时加快以"煤焦铁电"为代表的主导产业结构调整并继续加大节能减排力度,全面提高城市可持续发展能力. 相似文献
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以醋酸缓冲溶液和垃圾填埋场渗滤液为浸提剂,运用翻转振荡法与静置法模拟废干电池进入垃圾填埋场后,重金属从废干电池中浸出的情形,并对废干电池与生活垃圾一起填埋处理的健康风险进行了评估。结果表明:不同实验条件下,废干电池中金属的浸出浓度与废干电池的破碎程度密切相关,废干电池破碎程度越大,电池中金属的浸出浓度越高,因而废干电池与生活垃圾一起填埋处理的健康风险也越高。以静置实验结果为依据,对废干电池与生活垃圾一起填埋处理的健康风险进行评估,表明废干电池与生活垃圾一起填埋处理的健康风险指数小于1,因此废干电池与生活垃圾可以一起填埋处理。 相似文献
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Plastics such as polyvinyl chlorides (PVC) are widely used in many indoor constructed environments; however, their unbound chemicals, such as di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalates (DEHP), can leach into the surrounding environment. This study focused on DEHP's effect on the central nervous system by determining the precise DEHP content in mice brain tissue after exposure to the chemical, to evaluate the specific exposure range. Primary neuronal-astrocyte co-culture systems were used as in vitro models for chemical hazard identification of DEHP. Oxidative stress was hypothesized as a probable mechanism involved, and therefore the total reactive oxygen species (ROS) concentration was determined as a biomarker of oxidative stress. In addition, NeuriteTracer, a neurite tracing plugin with ImageJ, was used to develop an assay for neurotoxicity to provide quantitative measurements of neurological parameters, such as neuronal number, neuron count and neurite length, all of which could indicate neurotoxic effects. The results showed that with 1 nmol/L DEHP exposure, there was a significant increase in ROS concentrations, indicating that the neuronal-astrocyte cultures were injured due to exposure to DEHP. In response, astrocyte proliferation (gliosis) was initiated, serving as a mechanism to maintain a homeostatic environment for neurons and protect neurons from toxic chemicals. There is a need to assess the cumulative effects of DEHP in animals to evaluate the possible uotake and effects on the human neuronal system from exoosure to DEHP in the indoor environment. 相似文献
758.
Evaluation of accuracy of linear regression models in predicting urban stormwater discharge characteristics 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days (ADD), have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid (TSS) discharge loads and event mean concentrations (EMC) were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R2 and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data. 相似文献
759.
Fouling behavior along the length of membrane module was systematically investigated by performing simple modeling and lab-scale experiments of forward osmosis (FO) membrane process. The flux distribution model developed in this study showed a good agreement with experimental results, validating the robustness of the model. This model demonstrated, as expected, that the permeate flux decreased along the membrane channel due to decreasing osmotic pressure differential across the FO membrane. A series of fouling experiments were conducted under the draw and feed solutions at various recoveries simulated by the model. The simulated fouling experiments revealed that higher organic (alginate) fouling and thus more flux decline were observed at the last section of a membrane channel, as foulants in feed solution became more concentrated. Furthermore, the water flux in FO process declined more severely as the recovery increased due to more foulants transported to membrane surface with elevated solute concentrations at higher recovery, which created favorable solution environments for organic adsorption. The fouling reversibility also decreased at the last section of the membrane channel, suggesting that fouling distribution on FO membrane along the module should be carefully examined to improve overall cleaning efficiency. Lastly, it was found that such fouling distribution observed with co-current flow operation became less pronounced in counter- current flow operation of FO membrane process. 相似文献