A Contemporary,Sex‐Limited Change in Body Size of an Estuarine Turtle in Response to Commercial Fishing

Abstract: Juvenile growth rate and adult body size are important components of life‐history strategies because of their direct impact on fitness. The diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin) is a sexually dimorphic, long‐lived turtle inhabiting brackish waters throughout the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States. In parts of its range, terrapins face anthropogenically imposed mortality: juveniles of both sexes inadvertently enter commercial crab traps and drown. For adult females, the carapace eventually grows large enough that they cannot enter traps, whereas males almost never reach that critical size. We compared age structure, carapace dimensions, growth curves, and indices of sexual dimorphism for a Chesapeake Bay population of terrapins (where mortality of turtles is high due to crab traps) with contemporary terrapins from Long Island Sound and museum specimens from Chesapeake Bay (neither group subject to commercial crab traps). We also calculated the allochronic and synchronic rates of evolutionary change (haldanes) for males and females to measure the rate of trait change in a population or between populations, respectively. We found a dramatic shift to a younger male age structure, a decrease in the length of time to terminal female carapace size, a 15% increase in female carapace width, and an increase in sexual dimorphism in Chesapeake Bay. In a new twist, our results implicate a fishery in the selective increase in size of a reptilian bycatch species. These sex‐specific changes in life history and demography have implications for population viability that need to be considered when addressing conservation of this threatened turtle.     

恐惧诉求对职业驾驶员安全驾驶态度和行为意向的影响

研究以EPPM模型作为理论框架,探讨恐惧诉求对危险驾驶行为(超速和不系安全带)态度和行为意向的作用。54名职业驾驶员在观看交通安全恐惧诉求录像后,完成安全驾驶行为问卷。回归分析表明恐惧诉求的交通事故录像能够改变驾驶员对超速及不系安全带驾驶的态度和行为意向,但作用不完全一致。恐惧情绪唤起通过恐惧情感所引发的威胁评估过程中介对不超速行为意向的影响。最后,对研究的局限和未来的研究进行讨论。     

Evaluating Perceived Benefits of Ecoregional Assessments

Abstract: The outcomes of systematic conservation planning (process of assessing, implementing, and managing conservation areas) are rarely reported or measured formally. A lack of consistent or rigorous evaluation in conservation planning has fueled debate about the extent to which conservation assessment (identification, design, and prioritization of potential conservation areas) ultimately influences actions on the ground. We interviewed staff members of a nongovernmental organization, who were involved in 5 ecoregional assessments across North and South America and the Asia‐Pacific region. We conducted 17 semistructured interviews with open and closed questions about the perceived purpose, outputs, and outcomes of the ecoregional assessments in which respondents were involved. Using qualitative data collected from those interviews, we investigated the types and frequency of benefits perceived to have emerged from the ecoregional assessments and explored factors that might facilitate or constrain the flow of benefits. Some benefits reflected the intended purpose of ecoregional assessments. Other benefits included improvements in social interactions, attitudes, and institutional knowledge. Our results suggest the latter types of benefits enable ultimate benefits of assessments, such as guiding investments by institutional partners. Our results also showed a clear divergence between the respondents’ expectations and perceived outcomes of implementation of conservation actions arising from ecoregional assessments. Our findings suggest the need for both a broader perspective on the contribution of assessments to planning goals and further evaluation of conservation assessments.     

Estimating the extent and structure of trade in horticultural orchids via social media

The wildlife trade is a lucrative industry involving thousands of animal and plant species. The increasing use of the internet for both legal and illegal wildlife trade is well documented, but there is evidence that trade may be emerging on new online technologies such as social media. Using the orchid trade as a case study, we conducted the first systematic survey of wildlife trade on an international social‐media website. We focused on themed forums (groups), where people with similar interests can interact by uploading images or text (posts) that are visible to other group members. We used social‐network analysis to examine the ties between 150 of these orchid‐themed groups to determine the structure of the network. We found 4 communities of closely linked groups based around shared language. Most trade occurred in a community that consisted of English‐speaking and Southeast Asian groups. In addition to the network analysis, we randomly sampled 30 groups from the whole network to assess the prevalence of trade in cultivated and wild plants. Of 55,805 posts recorded over 12 weeks, 8.9% contained plants for sale, and 22–46% of these posts pertained to wild‐collected orchids. Although total numbers of posts about trade were relatively small, the large proportion of posts advertising wild orchids for sale supports calls for better monitoring of social media for trade in wild‐collected plants.     

Using the land transformation model to forecast vacant land

Growing or shrinking cities can experience increases in vacant land. As urban populations and boundaries fluctuate, holes can open in once tight urban areas. Many cities chase growth-oriented approaches to dealing with vacancies. It is critical to understand land-use alteration to accurately predict transformations of physical change in order to make better informed decisions about this phenomenon. This research utilizes the land transformation model (LTM), an artificial neural networking mechanism in Geographic Information Systems, to forecast vacant land. Variable influence on vacant land prediction and accuracy of the LTM is assessed by comparing input factors and patterns, using time-series data from 1990 to 2010 in Fort Worth, Texas, USA. Results indicate that the LTM can be useful in simulating vacant land-use changes but more precise mechanisms are necessary to increase accuracy. This will allow for more proactive decisions to better regulate the process of urban decline and regeneration.     

Numerical simulation of water curtain application for ammonia release dispersion

Using water curtain system to forced mitigate ammonia vapor cloud has been proven to be an effective measure. Currently, no engineering guidelines for designing an effective water curtain system are available, due to lack of understanding of complex interactions between ammonia vapor cloud and water droplets, especially the understanding of ammonia absorption into water droplets. This paper presents numerical calculations to reproduce the continuous ammonia release dispersion with and without the mitigating influence of a downwind water curtain using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) software ANSYS Fluent 14.0. The turbulence models k–ɛ and RNG were used to simulate the ammonia cloud dispersion without downwind water curtain. The simulated results were compared with literature using the statistical performance indicators. The RNG model represents better agreement with the experimental data and the k–ɛ model generates a slightly lesser result. The RNG model coupled with Lagrangian discrete phase model (DPM) was used to simulate the dilution effectiveness of the water curtain system. The ammonia absorption was taken into account by means of user-defined functions (UDF). The simulated effectiveness of water curtains has good agreements with the experimental results. The effectiveness of water mitigation system with and without the ammonia absorption was compared. The results display that the effectiveness mainly depends on the strong air entrainment enhanced by water droplets movement and the ammonia absorption also enhances the effectiveness of water curtain mitigation system. The study indicates that the CFD code can be satisfactorily applied in design criteria for an effective mitigation system.     

The problem of estimating recent genetic connectivity in a changing world

Accurate understanding of population connectivity is important to conservation because dispersal can play an important role in population dynamics, microevolution, and assessments of extirpation risk and population rescue. Genetic methods are increasingly used to infer population connectivity because advances in technology have made them more advantageous (e.g., cost effective) relative to ecological methods. Given the reductions in wildlife population connectivity since the Industrial Revolution and more recent drastic reductions from habitat loss, it is important to know the accuracy of and biases in genetic connectivity estimators when connectivity has declined recently. Using simulated data, we investigated the accuracy and bias of 2 common estimators of migration (movement of individuals among populations) rate. We focused on the timing of the connectivity change and the magnitude of that change on the estimates of migration by using a coalescent‐based method (Migrate‐n) and a disequilibrium‐based method (BayesAss). Contrary to expectations, when historically high connectivity had declined recently: (i) both methods over‐estimated recent migration rates; (ii) the coalescent‐based method (Migrate‐n) provided better estimates of recent migration rate than the disequilibrium‐based method (BayesAss); (iii) the coalescent‐based method did not accurately reflect long‐term genetic connectivity. Overall, our results highlight the problems with comparing coalescent and disequilibrium estimates to make inferences about the effects of recent landscape change on genetic connectivity among populations. We found that contrasting these 2 estimates to make inferences about genetic‐connectivity changes over time could lead to inaccurate conclusions.     

Predicting occurrence of juvenile shark habitat to improve conservation planning

Fishing and habitat degradation have increased the extinction risk of sharks, and conservation strategies recognize that survival of juveniles is critical for the effective management of shark populations. Despite the rapid expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) globally, the paucity of shark‐monitoring data on large scales (100s–1000s km) means that the effectiveness of MPAs in halting shark declines remains unclear. Using data collected by baited remote underwater video systems (BRUVS) in northwestern Australia, we developed generalized linear models to elucidate the ecological drivers of habitat suitability for juvenile sharks. We assessed occurrence patterns at the order and species levels. We included all juvenile sharks sampled and the 3 most abundant species sampled separately (grey reef [Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos], sandbar [Carcharhinus plumbeus], and whitetip reef sharks [Triaenodon obesus]). We predicted the occurrence of juvenile sharks across 490,515 km² of coastal waters and quantified the representation of highly suitable habitats within MPAs. Our species‐level models had higher accuracy (? ≥ 0.69) and deviance explained (≥48%) than our order‐level model (? = 0.36 and deviance explained of 10%). Maps of predicted occurrence revealed different species‐specific patterns of highly suitable habitat. These differences likely reflect different physiological or resource requirements between individual species and validate concerns over the utility of conservation targets based on aggregate species groups as opposed to a species‐focused approach. Highly suitable habitats were poorly represented in MPAs with the most restrictions on extractive activities. This spatial mismatch possibly indicates a lack of explicit conservation targets and information on species distribution during the planning process. Non‐extractive BRUVS provided a useful platform for building the suitability models across large scales to assist conservation planning across multiple maritime jurisdictions, and our approach provides a simple for method for testing the effectiveness of MPAs.     

Estimating Plecoglossus altivelis altivelis migration using a mass balance model expressed by hydrological distribution parameters in a major limpid river basin in Japan

We examined the influence of several hydrological and meteorological parameters on the migratory movements of ayu Plecoglossus altivelis altivelis in central Japan. When comprehensively evaluating rivers and ayu behaviour on a catchment scale, the subjects of analysis typically include human activities and hydrological and meteorological phenomena. However, limiting analyses to such factors may be too restrictive when human activities are being conducted. Accordingly, we incorporated a biological viewpoint into the evaluation method, analysing hydrological data (river discharge, river water temperature, sea water temperature) to determine watershed characteristics and examining the relationship between these characteristics and the habitat conditions of ayu. Then we constructed a numerical model for ayu migratory runs that incorporated ayu ecology and watershed characteristics. Analyses of ayu movements from a lower estuarine dam demonstrated that downstream displacements were associated with high water flows of more than 200 m³ s⁻¹ at the beginning of summer. We conclude that it is important to consider the effects of environmental parameters on the movements of different fish species to understand the causes of spatial variation in fish distribution in lowland rivers.