基于GF1_WFV的千岛湖水体叶绿素a浓度时空变化

基于高分一号（GF-1）遥感影像以及水体实测样点数据,运用波段对数组合,以千岛湖为研究对象,构建和择优了叶绿素a浓度反演模型,对2013~2019年千岛湖区域水体叶绿素a浓度值进行了估算,并利用变异系数、Mann-Kendall显著性检验模型、Theil-Sen趋势分析模型对其时空变化特征进行了分析.研究表明,基于波段对数组合的反演模型可用于千岛湖清洁水体叶绿素a浓度值的反演（R²=0.8976）;年际变化分析发现,在研究期限内,千岛湖水体叶绿素a浓度平均值维持在较低水平,近94%的水体像元叶绿素a浓度小于3.65μg/L,水质较佳;时空动态分析进一步发现,千岛湖水体叶绿素a浓度值大都经历了较为微小的波动变化,其中,有超过67%的水体像元浓度值呈现出微小的增长趋势,在分布上也呈现出一定的空间格局形态.     

城市污水厂MCR-1基因及其携带菌的污染

研究了南京某城市污水处理厂MCR-1基因及其携带菌的污染特征,从MCR-1的分布特征、影响因素及MCR-1携带菌的耐药特征等方面综合评价.结果发现MCR-1随处理流程丰度下降,去除率达83.6%,但其相对丰度在出水中显著升高,剩余污泥中含有高浓度MCR-1,浓度达2.88×10¹²copies/L.粘菌素耐药菌同样沿处理流程逐渐降低,出水降至53CFU/mL,去除率达99.98%,但在剩余污泥中浓度高达2.04×10⁵CFU/mL.相关性分析发现MCR-1丰度与氨氮含量呈正相关,而相对丰度与COD、总氮和硝酸盐含量呈负相关.耐药特征分析表明曝气池（CAST、MSBR）和曝气生物流化池（ABFT）中MCR-1携带菌可耐受较高浓度粘菌素,且污水处理使MCR-1携带菌对粘菌素的耐受能力提高.表明污水处理流程不但无法完全去除MCR-1及其携带菌,且导致耐药性风险提高.本研究可为评价污水中以MCR-1为代表的超级抗性基因的环境风险提供参考.     

复合有机污染物在含水层介质表面的吸附性能

为明确氯代烃芳香烃类复合污染物在含水层介质上的吸附特性,选取甲苯、苯、1,2-二氯丙烷,1,2,3-三氯丙烷（TCP）作为典型污染物开展吸附试验,结果表明吸附过程符合Henry线性模型,分配系数K_p值分别为0.38,0.41,0.73,1.00kg/L,污染物在细砂上的吸附强度顺序为甲苯>苯> 1,2-二氯丙烷> TCP;竞争吸附试验结果表明,苯可以明显促进甲苯在细砂介质上的吸附,而甲苯抑制了苯的吸附;1,2-二氯丙烷抑制TCP在细砂介质上的吸附,而TCP对1,2-二氯丙烷的吸附影响并不明显.TCP在含水层介质上的吸附量随甲苯浓度增加而增大;当甲苯初始浓度<2mg/L时,TCP对于甲苯在含水层介质上的吸附起促进作用,当甲苯的初始浓度³2mg/L时,TCP对于其在含水层介质上的吸附起抑制作用.     

基于粒子群优化的DGM（1,1）模型在基坑变形安全预测中的研究

为确保基坑施工期间发生变形后能够正常使用,将变权缓冲算子结合DGM(1,1)模型构造出变权离散灰色模型,利用相对误差、后验差比,灰色绝对关联度3种精度检验法作为粒子群算法适应度建立模型,构造PSO-VWDGM(1,1)模型,并结合实际工程监测数据研究不同适应度对基坑变形预测精度的影响。研究结果表明:不同适应度函数对预测精度存在较大影响,以灰色绝对关联度作为适应度建立模型预测精度较高,可以更好应用在工程中。研究成果可为工程施工阶段的基坑变形预测、稳定性分析与灾害评估、预警提供参考。     

基于GM(1,1) Markov的危化品道路运输事故与交通事故预测及关系研究

为准确预测我国危化品道路运输及交通2类事故数量趋势,探究其内在联系,在单一的灰色GM（1,1）模型基础上与马尔科夫过程组合形成灰色GM（1,1）—马尔科夫预测模型,以2013—2017年2类事故数量的原始序列探讨了该组合预测模型的实际应用,采取平均相对误差、均方差比值、小误差概率对模型进行精度检验。研究结果表明:在组合预测模型较优情况的研究中,2类事故数量历年来波动性相似,因危险化学品自身的性质、包装和装卸使得2类事故量变化频率存在偏差;2018—2019年的危化品道路运输事故分别为485起和480起,交通事故分别为225 294起和234 454起。     

城市污水处理厂Candidatus Accumulibacter的菌群结构及定量分析

Candidatus Accumulibacter是污水生物除磷系统中的优势聚磷菌.本研究采用编码聚合磷酸盐激酶的功能基因(polyphosphate kinase 1gene,ppk1)作为遗传标记,对9个污水处理厂共12个活性污泥样品中Accumulibacter的进化枝水平的丰度及其菌群结构进行了研究.实时定量PCR(Quantitative PCR,QPCR)的结果显示,Accumulibacter的6个进化枝(IA、IIA、IIB、IIC、IID、IIF)均存在于12个污泥样品中.A2O及其改良工艺中总Accumulibacter丰度最高,达到总菌的22.77%.所有样品中Accumulibacter均以Type-II为主,其中,IIC、IID的丰度均达到了108cells·g-1(以MLSS计),占Accumulibacter的平均比例分别为75.34%和14.87%,是污水处理厂中的优势聚磷菌.分支IA丰度最低,占总Accumulibacter比例平均只有0.32%.系统发育分析结果显示,每个样品中Accumulibacter分支多样化,均含有IIA、IIC、IID分支.QPCR和系统发育分析都证实了生物除磷效果与Accumulibacter的群落结构密切相关,除磷效果不好可能和IID占总Accumulibacter比例较高有关.     

Effects of Customary Marine Closures on Fish Behavior,Spear‐Fishing Success,and Underwater Visual Surveys

Abstract: Customary management systems (i.e., management systems that limit the use of marine resources), such as rotational fisheries closures, can limit harvest of resources. Nevertheless, the explicit goals of customary management are often to influence fish behavior (in particular flight distance, i.e., distance at which an organism begins to flee an approaching threat), rather than fish abundance. We explored whether the flight distance of reef fishes targeted by local artisanal fishers differed between a customary closure and fished reefs. We also examined whether flight distance of these species affected fishing success and accuracy of underwater visual census (UVC) between customary closed areas and areas open to fishing. Several species demonstrated significant differences in flight distance between areas, indicating that fishing activity may increase flight distance. These relatively long flight distances mean that in fished areas most target species may stay out of the range of spear fishers. In addition, mean flight distances for all species both inside and outside the customary‐closure area were substantially smaller than the observation distance of an observer conducting a belt‐transect UVC (mean [SE]= 8.8 m [0.48]). For targeted species that showed little ability to evade spear fishers, customary closures may be a vital management technique. Our results show that customary closures can have a substantial, positive effect on resource availability and that conventional UVC techniques may be insensitive to changes in flight behavior of fishes associated with fishing. We argue that short, periodic openings of customary closures may allow the health of the fish community to be maintained and local fishers to effectively harvest fishes.     

Protected‐Area Boundaries as Filters of Plant Invasions

Abstract: Human land uses surrounding protected areas provide propagules for colonization of these areas by non‐native species, and corridors between protected‐area networks and drainage systems of rivers provide pathways for long‐distance dispersal of non‐native species. Nevertheless, the influence of protected‐area boundaries on colonization of protected areas by invasive non‐native species is unknown. We drew on a spatially explicit data set of more than 27,000 non‐native plant presence records for South Africa's Kruger National Park to examine the role of boundaries in preventing colonization of protected areas by non‐native species. The number of records of non‐native invasive plants declined rapidly beyond 1500 m inside the park; thus, we believe that the park boundary limited the spread of non‐native plants. The number of non‐native invasive plants inside the park was a function of the amount of water runoff, density of major roads, and the presence of natural vegetation outside the park. Of the types of human‐induced disturbance, only the density of major roads outside the protected area significantly increased the number of non‐native plant records. Our findings suggest that the probability of incursion of invasive plants into protected areas can be quantified reliably.     

Living at the Edge: Local versus Positional Factors in the Long‐Term Population Dynamics of an Endangered Orchid

Abstract: Populations at the margin of geographic ranges of distribution have been considered more vulnerable than central ones, but recent reviews have caste doubt on this generalization. We examined the reproductive and demographic performance of a rare Euroasiatic orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) at its southwesterly range limit and compared our findings with those of previous studies of nine central populations at the center of the orchid's range. We sought to test the central‐marginal model and to evaluate factors involved in long‐term performance of forest Eurosiberian species with peripheral populations in southern European mountains. We characterized (structure, temporal fluctuations, herbivory, reproductive success, and recruitment at different habitats) four Pyrenean populations of C. calceolus of different sizes (5–3500 ramets) and monitored three of them for up to 13 years. Two quantitative stochastic models (count data and matrix models) were used to assess population trends and viability and the effect of herbivory. Contrary to expectations, and despite the negative effect of sporadic events of herbivory, the peripheral populations we studied (except the smallest one) performed similarly or better than populations occurring in central part of the species’ range in terms of reproductive success and population growth rates. Landscape changes over the last 50 years suggest that natural reforestation could be involved in the success of this plant at its southern limit. Forest expansion in the mountain regions of southern Europe may provide new opportunities for plants with geographic distributions centered mainly at higher latitudes and give some hope for their recovery in future scenarios dominated by biodiversity loss.     

Potential Misuse of Avian Density as a Conservation Metric

Abstract: Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual‐ and population‐level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density‐independent and density‐dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density‐dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels.