A 2.5‐million‐year perspective on coarse‐filter strategies for conserving nature's stage

Climate change will require novel conservation strategies. One such tactic is a coarse‐filter approach that focuses on conserving nature's stage (CNS) rather than the actors (individual species). However, there is a temporal mismatch between the long‐term goals of conservation and the short‐term nature of most ecological studies, which leaves many assumptions untested. Paleoecology provides a valuable perspective on coarse‐filter strategies by marshaling the natural experiments of the past to contextualize extinction risk due to the emerging impacts of climate change and anthropogenic threats. We reviewed examples from the paleoecological record that highlight the strengths, opportunities, and caveats of a CNS approach. We focused on the near‐time geological past of the Quaternary, during which species were subjected to widespread changes in climate and concomitant changes in the physical environment in general. Species experienced a range of individualistic responses to these changes, including community turnover and novel associations, extinction and speciation, range shifts, changes in local richness and evenness, and both equilibrium and disequilibrium responses. Due to the dynamic nature of species responses to Quaternary climate change, a coarse‐filter strategy may be appropriate for many taxa because it can accommodate dynamic processes. However, conservationists should also consider that the persistence of landforms varies across space and time, which could have potential long‐term consequences for geodiversity and thus biodiversity.     

Butterfly community shifts over two centuries

Environmental changes strongly impact the distribution of species and subsequently the composition of species assemblages. Although most community ecology studies represent temporal snap shots, long‐term observations are rather rare. However, only such time series allow the identification of species composition shifts over several decades or even centuries. We analyzed changes in the species composition of a southeastern German butterfly and burnet moth community over nearly 2 centuries (1840–2013). We classified all species observed over this period according to their ecological tolerance, thereby assessing their degree of habitat specialisation. This classification was based on traits of the butterfly and burnet moth species and on their larval host plants. We collected data on temperature and precipitation for our study area over the same period. The number of species declined substantially from 1840 (117 species) to 2013 (71 species). The proportion of habitat specialists decreased, and most of these are currently endangered. In contrast, the proportion of habitat generalists increased. Species with restricted dispersal behavior and species in need of areas poor in soil nutrients had severe losses. Furthermore, our data indicated a decrease in species composition similarity between different decades over time. These data on species composition changes and the general trends of modifications may reflect effects from climate change and atmospheric nitrogen loads, as indicated by the ecological characteristics of host plant species and local changes in habitat configuration with increasing fragmentation. Our observation of major declines over time of currently threatened and protected species shows the importance of efficient conservation strategies.     

Assessing the effectiveness of specially protected areas for conservation of Antarctica's botanical diversity

Vegetation is sparsely distributed over Antarctica's ice‐free ground, and distinct plant communities are present in each of the continent's 15 recently identified Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions (ACBRs). With rapidly increasing human activity in Antarctica, terrestrial plant communities are at risk of damage or destruction by trampling, overland transport, and infrastructure construction and from the impacts of anthropogenically introduced species, as well as uncontrollable pressures such as fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) activity and climate change. Under the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, the conservation of plant communities can be enacted and facilitated through the designation of Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs). We examined the distribution within the 15 ACBRs of the 33 ASPAs whose explicit purpose includes protecting macroscopic terrestrial flora. We completed the first survey using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) satellite remote sensing to provide baseline data on the extent of vegetation cover in all ASPAs designated for plant protection in Antarctica. Large omissions in the protection of Antarctic botanical diversity were found. There was no protection of plant communities in 6 ACBRs, and in another 6, <0.4% of the ACBR area was included in an ASPA that protected vegetation. Protected vegetation cover within the 33 ASPAs totaled 16.1 km² for the entire Antarctic continent; over half was within a single protected area. Over 96% of the protected vegetation was contained in 2 ACBRs, which together contributed only 7.8% of the continent's ice‐free ground. We conclude that Antarctic botanical diversity is clearly inadequately protected and call for systematic designation of ASPAs protecting plant communities by the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties, the members of the governing body of the continent.     

A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale

The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species’ long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075–21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June–September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought.     

Founder Effects,Inbreeding, and Loss of Genetic Diversity in Four Avian Reintroduction Programs

Abstract: The number of individuals translocated and released as part of a reintroduction is often small, as is the final established population, because the reintroduction site is typically small. Small founder and small resulting populations can result in population bottlenecks, which are associated with increased rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, both of which can affect the long‐term viability of reintroduced populations. I used information derived from pedigrees of four monogamous bird species reintroduced onto two different islands (220 and 259 ha) in New Zealand to compare the pattern of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity among the reintroduced populations. Although reintroduced populations founded with few individuals had higher levels of inbreeding, as predicted, other factors, including biased sex ratio and skewed breeding success, contributed to high levels of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity. Of the 10–58 individuals released, 4–25 genetic founders contributed at least one living descendent and yielded approximately 3–11 founder–genome equivalents (number of genetic founders assuming an equal contribution of offspring and no random loss of alleles across generations) after seven breeding seasons. This range is much lower than the 20 founder–genome equivalents recommended for captive‐bred populations. Although the level of inbreeding in one reintroduced population initially reached three times that of a closely related species, the long‐term estimated rate of inbreeding of this one population was approximately one‐third that of the other species due to differences in carrying capacities of the respective reintroduction sites. The increasing number of reintroductions to suitable areas that are smaller than those I examined here suggests that it might be useful to develop long‐term strategies and guidelines for reintroduction programs, which would minimize inbreeding and maintain genetic diversity.     

Putting Density Back into the Habitat‐Quality Equation: Case Study of an Open‐Nesting Forest Bird

Abstract: Ecological traps and other cases of apparently maladaptive habitat selection cast doubt on the relevance of density as an indicator of habitat quality. Nevertheless, the prevalence of these phenomena remains poorly known, and density may still reflect habitat quality in most systems. We examined the relationship between density and two other parameters of habitat quality in an open‐nesting passerine species: the Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla). We hypothesized that the average individual bird makes a good decision when selecting its breeding territory and that territory spacing reflects site productivity or predation risk. Therefore, we predicted that density would be positively correlated with productivity (number of young fledged per unit area). Because individual performance is sensitive to events partly determined by chance, such as nest predation, we further predicted density would be weakly correlated or uncorrelated with the proportion of territories fledging young. We collected data in 23 study sites (25 ha each), 16 of which were located in untreated mature northern hardwood forest and seven in stands partially harvested (treated) 1–7 years prior to the survey. Density explained most of the variability in productivity (R²= 0.73), and there was no apparent decoupling between density and productivity in treated plots. In contrast, there was no significant relationship between density and the proportion of territories fledging ≥1 young over the entire breeding season. These results suggest that density reflects habitat quality at the plot scale in this study system. To our knowledge this is one of the few studies testing the value of territory density as an indicator of habitat quality in an open‐nesting bird species on the basis of a relatively large number of sizeable study plots.     

Long‐Term Impacts of Poaching on Relatedness,Stress Physiology,and Reproductive Output of Adult Female African Elephants

Abstract: Widespread poaching prior to the 1989 ivory ban greatly altered the demographic structure of matrilineal African elephant (Loxodonta africana) family groups in many populations by decreasing the number of old, adult females. We assessed the long‐term impacts of poaching by investigating genetic, physiological, and reproductive correlates of a disturbed social structure resulting from heavy poaching of an African elephant population in Mikumi National Park, Tanzania, prior to 1989. We examined fecal glucocorticoid levels and reproductive output among 218 adult female elephants from 109 groups differing in size, age structure, and average genetic relatedness over 25 months from 2003 to 2005. The distribution in group size has changed little since 1989, but the number of families with tusked old matriarchs has increased by 14.2%. Females from groups that lacked an old matriarch, first‐order adult relatives, and strong social bonds had significantly higher fecal glucocorticoid values than those from groups with these features (all females R²= 0.31; females in multiadult groups R²= 0.46). Females that frequented isolated areas with historically high poaching risk had higher fecal glucocorticoid values than those in low poaching risk areas. Females with weak bonds and low group relatedness had significantly lower reproductive output (R²[U]=0.21). Females from disrupted groups, defined as having observed average group relatedness 1 SD below the expected mean for a simulated unpoached family, had significantly lower reproductive output than females from intact groups, despite many being in their reproductive prime. These results suggest that long‐term negative impacts from poaching of old, related matriarchs have persisted among adult female elephants 1.5 decades after the 1989 ivory ban was implemented.     

Limitations of Gravity Models in Predicting the Spread of Eurasian Watermilfoil

Abstract: The effects of non‐native invasive species are costly and environmentally damaging, and resources to slow their spread and reduce their effects are scarce. Models that accurately predict where new invasions will occur could guide the efficient allocation of resources to slow colonization. We assessed the accuracy of a model that predicts the probability of colonization of lakes in Wisconsin by Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum). We based this predictive model on 9 years (1990–1999) of sequence data of milfoil colonization of lakes larger than 25 ha (n =1803). We used milfoil colonization sequence data from 2000 to 2006 to test whether the model accurately predicted the number of lakes that actually were colonized from among the 200 lakes identified as being most likely to be colonized. We found that a lake's predicted probability of colonization was not correlated with whether a lake actually was colonized. Given the low predictability of colonization of specific lakes, we compared the efficacy of preventing milfoil from leaving occupied sites, which does not require predicting colonization probability, with protecting vacant sites from being colonized, which does require predicting colonization probability. Preventing organisms from leaving colonized sites reduced the likelihood of spread more than protecting vacant sites. Although we focused on the spread of a single species in a particular region, our results show the shortcomings of gravity models in predicting the spread of numerous non‐native species to a variety of locations via a wide range of vectors.     

Evidence of Local Adaptation in the Demographic Response of American Ginseng to Interannual Temperature Variation

Abstract: Bioclimatic envelope models of species’ responses to climate change are used to predict how species will respond to increasing temperatures. These models are frequently based on the assumption that the northern and southern boundaries of a species’ range define its thermal niche. However, this assumption may be violated if populations are adapted to local temperature regimes and have evolved population‐specific thermal optima. Considering the prevalence of local adaptation, the assumption of a species‐wide thermal optimum may be violated for many species. We used spatially and temporally extensive demographic data for American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.) to examine range‐wide variation in response of population growth rate (λ) to climatic factors. Our results suggest adaptation to local temperature, but not precipitation. For each population, λ was maximized when annual temperatures were similar to site‐specific, long‐term mean temperatures. Populations from disparate climatic zones responded differently to temperature variation, and there was a linear relation between population‐level thermal optima and the 30‐year mean temperature at each site. For species that are locally adapted to temperature, bioclimatic envelope models may underestimate the extent to which increasing temperatures will decrease population growth rate. Because any directional change from long‐term mean temperatures will decrease population growth rates, all populations throughout a species’ range will be adversely affected by temperature increase, not just populations at southern and low‐elevation boundaries. Additionally, when a species’ local thermal niche is narrower than its range‐wide thermal niche, a smaller temperature increase than would be predicted by bioclimatic envelope approaches may be sufficient to decrease population growth.