National Red Listing Beyond the 2010 Target

Abstract: Following creation of the 2010 Biodiversity Target under the Convention on Biological Diversity and adoption of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, information on status and trends of biodiversity at the national level has become increasingly important to both science and policy. National red lists (NRLs) of threatened species may provide suitable data for reporting on progress toward these goals and for informing national conservation priority setting. This information will also become increasingly important for developing species‐ and ecosystem‐based strategies for climate change adaptation. We conducted a thorough global review of NRLs in 109 countries and analyzed gaps in NRL coverage in terms of geography and taxonomy to determine priority regions and taxonomic groups for further investment. We then examined correlations between the NRL data set and gross domestic product (GDP) and vertebrate species richness. The largest geographic gap was in Oceania, followed by middle Africa, the Caribbean, and western Africa, whereas the largest taxonomic gaps were for invertebrates, fungi, and lichens. The comprehensiveness of NRL coverage within a given country was positively correlated with GDP and negatively correlated with total vertebrate richness and threatened vertebrate richness. This supports the assertion that regions with the greatest and most vulnerable biodiversity receive the least conservation attention and indicates that financial resources may be an integral limitation. To improve coverage of NRLs, we propose a combination of projects that target underrepresented taxa or regions and projects that provide the means for countries to create or update NRLs on their own. We recommend improvements in knowledge transfer within and across regions as a priority for future investment.     

Constraints to Species’ Elevational Range Shifts as Climate Changes

Abstract: Predicting whether the ranges of tropical species will shift to higher elevations in response to climate change requires models that incorporate data on topography and land use. We incorporated temperature gradients and land‐cover data from the current ranges of species in a model of range shifts in response to climate change. We tested four possible scenarios of amphibian movement on a tropical mountain: movement upslope through and to land cover suitable for the species; movement upslope to land‐cover types that will not sustain survival and reproduction; movement upslope to areas that previously were outside the species’ range; and movement upslope to cooler areas within the current range. Areas in the final scenario will become isolated as climate continues to change. In our scenarios more than 30% of the range of 21 of 46 amphibian species in the tropical Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta is likely to become isolated as climate changes. More than 30% of the range of 13 amphibian species would shift to areas that currently are unlikely to sustain survival and reproduction. Combined, over 70% of the current range of seven species would become thermally isolated or shift to areas that currently are unlikely to support survival and reproduction. The constraints on species’ movements to higher elevations in response to climate change can increase considerably the number of species threatened by climate change in tropical mountains.     

Carbon Payments and Low‐Cost Conservation

Abstract: A price on carbon is expected to generate demand for carbon offset schemes. This demand could drive investment in tree‐based monocultures that provide higher carbon yields than diverse plantings of native tree and shrub species, which sequester less carbon but provide greater variation in vegetation structure and composition. Economic instruments such as species conservation banking, the creation and trading of credits that represent biological‐diversity values on private land, could close the financial gap between monocultures and more diverse plantings by providing payments to individuals who plant diverse species in locations that contribute to conservation and restoration goals. We studied a highly modified agricultural system in southern Australia that is typical of many temperate agriculture zones globally (i.e., has a high proportion of endangered species, high levels of habitat fragmentation, and presence of non‐native species). We quantified the economic returns from agriculture and from carbon plantings (monoculture and mixed tree and shrubs) under six carbon‐price scenarios. We also identified high‐priority locations for restoration of cleared landscapes with mixed tree and shrub carbon plantings. Depending on the price of carbon, direct annual payments to landowners of AU$7/ha/year to $125/ha/year (US$6–120/ha/year) may be sufficient to augment economic returns from a carbon market and encourage tree plantings that contribute more to the restoration of natural systems and endangered species habitats than monocultures. Thus, areas of high priority for conservation and restoration may be restored relatively cheaply in the presence of a carbon market. Overall, however, less carbon is sequestered by mixed native tree and shrub plantings.     

Ecological Trap for Desert Lizards Caused by Anthropogenic Changes in Habitat Structure that Favor Predator Activity

Abstract: Anthropogenic habitat perturbation is a major cause of population decline. A standard practice managers use to protect populations is to leave portions of natural habitat intact. We describe a case study in which, despite the use of this practice, the critically endangered lizard Acanthodactylus beershebensis was locally extirpated from both manipulated and natural patches within a mosaic landscape of an afforestation project. We hypothesized that increased structural complexity in planted patches favors avian predator activity and makes these patches less suitable for lizards due to a heightened risk of predation. Spatial rarity of natural perches (e.g., trees) in arid scrublands may hinder the ability of desert lizards to associate perches with low‐quality habitat, turning planted patches into ecological traps for such species. We erected artificial trees in a structurally simple arid habitat (similar to the way trees were planted in the afforestation project) and compared lizard population dynamics in plots with these structures and without. Survival of lizards in the plots with artificial trees was lower than survival in plots without artificial trees. Hatchlings dispersed into plots with artificial trees in a manner that indicated they perceived the quality of these plots as similar to the surrounding, unmanipulated landscape. Our results showed that local anthropogenic changes in habitat structure that seem relatively harmless may have a considerable negative effect beyond the immediate area of the perturbation because the disturbed habitat may become an ecological trap.     

A Regional Perspective on the Diversity and Conservation of Tropical Andean Fishes

Abstract: The tropical Andes harbor an extraordinarily varied concentration of species in a landscape under increasing pressure from human activities. Conservation of the region's native plants and animals has received considerable international attention, but the focus has been on terrestrial biota. The conservation of freshwater fauna, particularly the conservation of fishes, has not been emphasized. Tropical Andean fishes are among the most understudied vertebrates in the world. We estimate that between 400 and 600 fish species inhabit the diverse aquatic environments in the region. Nearly 40% of these species are endemic. Tropical Andean fishes are vulnerable to ongoing environmental changes related to deforestation, water withdrawals, water pollution, species introductions, and hydropower development. Additionally, their distributions and population dynamics may be affected by hydrologic alterations and warmer water temperatures associated with projected climate change. Presently, at least three species are considered extinct, some populations are endangered, and some species are likely to decline or disappear. The long‐term persistence of tropical Andean fishes will depend on greater consideration of freshwater systems in regional conservation initiatives.     

Predicting the Probability of Outbreeding Depression

Abstract: Fragmentation of animal and plant populations typically leads to genetic erosion and increased probability of extirpation. Although these effects can usually be reversed by re‐establishing gene flow between population fragments, managers sometimes fail to do so due to fears of outbreeding depression (OD). Rapid development of OD is due primarily to adaptive differentiation from selection or fixation of chromosomal variants. Fixed chromosomal variants can be detected empirically. We used an extended form of the breeders’ equation to predict the probability of OD due to adaptive differentiation between recently isolated population fragments as a function of intensity of selection, genetic diversity, effective population sizes, and generations of isolation. Empirical data indicated that populations in similar environments had not developed OD even after thousands of generations of isolation. To predict the probability of OD, we developed a decision tree that was based on the four variables from the breeders’ equation, taxonomic status, and gene flow within the last 500 years. The predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations is elevated when the populations have at least one of the following characteristics: are distinct species, have fixed chromosomal differences, exchanged no genes in the last 500 years, or inhabit different environments. Conversely, the predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations of the same species is low for populations with the same karyotype, isolated for <500 years, and that occupy similar environments. In the former case, we recommend crossing be avoided or tried on a limited, experimental basis. In the latter case, crossing can be carried out with low probability of OD. We used crosses with known results to test the decision tree and found that it correctly identified cases where OD occurred. Current concerns about OD in recently fragmented populations are almost certainly excessive.     

Use of Land Facets to Plan for Climate Change: Conserving the Arenas,Not the Actors

Abstract: Even under the most optimistic scenarios, during the next century human‐caused climate change will threaten many wild populations and species. The most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. To prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air–ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). This approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. Instead, we advocate identifying land facets—recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes—and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units. This coarse‐filter approach would conserve the arenas of biological activity, rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. Integrative, context‐sensitive variables, such as insolation and topographic wetness, are useful for defining land facets. Classification procedures such as k‐means or fuzzy clustering are a good way to define land facets because they can analyze millions of pixels and are insensitive to case order. In regions lacking useful soil maps, river systems or riparian plants can indicate important facets. Conservation planners should set higher representation targets for rare and distinctive facets. High interspersion of land facets can promote ecological processes, evolutionary interaction, and range shift. Relevant studies suggest land‐facet diversity is a good surrogate for today's biodiversity, but fails to conserve some species. To minimize such failures, a reserve design based on land facets should complement, rather than replace, other approaches. Designs based on land facets are not biased toward data‐rich areas and can be applied where no maps of land cover exist.     

Multispecies and Multiscale Conservation Planning: Setting Quantitative Targets for Red‐Listed Lichens on Ancient Oaks

Abstract: Species occurrence in a habitat patch depends on local habitat and the amount of that habitat in the wider landscape. We used predictions from empirical landscape studies to set quantitative conservation criteria and targets in a multispecies and multiscale conservation planning effort. We used regression analyses to compare species richness and occurrence of five red‐listed lichens on 50 ancient oaks (Quercus robur; 120–140 cm in diameter) with the density of ancient oaks in circles of varying radius from each individual oak. Species richness and the occurrence of three of the five species were best explained by increasing density of oaks within 0.5 km; one species was best explained by the density of oaks within 2 km, and another was best predicted by the density of oaks within 5 km. The minimum numbers of ancient oaks required for “successful conservation” was defined as the number of oaks required to obtain a predicted local occurrence of 50% for all species included or a predicted local occurrence of 80% for all species included. These numbers of oaks were calculated for two relevant landscape scales (1 km² and 13 km²) that corresponded to various species responses, in such a way that calculations also accounted for local number of oaks. Ten and seven of the 50 ancient oaks surveyed were situated in landscapes that already fulfilled criteria for successful conservation when the 50% and 80% criteria, respectively, were used to define the level of successful conservation. For cost‐efficient conservation, oak stands in the landscapes most suitable for successful conservation should be prioritized for conservation and management (e.g., grazing and planting of new oaks) at the expense of oak stands situated elsewhere.     

青岛秋冬季PM1中金属元素污染特征及健康风险评估

于2018年11月1日至2019年1月31日（OP_2018-2019）和2019年11月1日至2020年1月20日（OP_2019-2020）在青岛对PM₁进行了连续两年秋冬季逐日采集.将观测期划分为4个空气质量等级（Ⅰ级、Ⅱ级、Ⅲ级和Ⅳ级）,分析了PM₁中金属元素浓度特征及来源,评估了不同人群的非致癌风险（Zn、Pb、Mn、Cu和V）和致癌风险（As、Cr、Ni、Cd和Co）.结果表明,与OP_2018-2019相比,OP_2019-2020期间不同空气质量等级下金属元素总浓度变化与Ca、K和Al浓度变化有关,受扬尘源和生物质燃烧源影响较大.与OP_2018-2019相比,OP_2019-2020期间不同空气质量等级下V浓度分别下降19.0%、60.5%、82.7%和77.5%.推测与船舶国内排放控制区域（DECA）政策实施有关,青岛周边海域船舶改换燃油品质,导致V浓度大幅降低.由富集因子、比值法和气流后向轨迹结果进一步表明V浓度变化主要受DECA政策影响.然而,实施DECA政策后,V/Ni值作为判断区域内受船舶源影响的限值,需进一步探究.由健康风险评估结果表明,OP_2018-2019和OP_2019-2020期间非致癌元素Mn的危险系数范围为0.07~1.22,建议加强管控含Mn污染源的排放.OP_2018-2019和OP_2019-2020期间不同空气质量下As、Cd的终生致癌风险概率（ILCR）值低于10^-4,但高于10^-6,表明存在致癌概率,但仍可接受.OP_2018-2019期间空气质量为Ⅳ级时,Cr的ILCR值高于10^-4,存在致癌风险.     

Transepithelial transport and cellular accumulation of steroid hormones and polychlorobiphenyl in porcine kidney cells expressed with human P-glycoprotein

Endocrine disrupters such as sex hormone-like chemicals and the non-physiological ligands for aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) exert many adverse biological effects. The ligands for AhR disturb gene expression downstream of the gene induced by estrogen receptor at a very low concentration. Thus, transepithelial transport and cellular accumulation of cortisol (COR) and estrogen as congeners of sex hormone-like chemicals, and 3,3^′,4,4^′-tetrachlorobiphenyl (TeCB) as one of the ligands for AhR were examined in a monolayer of porcine kidney cells transfected with human P-glycoprotein (LLC-COL). The net basal-to-apical transport of COR increased in LLC-COL compared to that in the wild type cells (LLC-PK1) the same as in vinblastine, whereas the net transport of estradiol (EST) was not detected in either cell group. Though the diffusion transports of EST for both directions, basal-to-apical and apical-to-basal, were higher than that of COR, cellular accumulation of EST was higher than that of COR. Transepithelial transport of TeCB was very low and the net basal-to-apical transport was not detected, while it was highly accumulated in the epithelial cells. The accumulation was slightly higher in LLC-COL than in LLC-PK1 at high dose.