Testing Decision Rules for Categorizing Species’ Extinction Risk to Help Develop Quantitative Listing Criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Lack of guidance for interpreting the definitions of endangered and threatened in the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has resulted in case‐by‐case decision making leaving the process vulnerable to being considered arbitrary or capricious. Adopting quantitative decision rules would remedy this but requires the agency to specify the relative urgency concerning extinction events over time, cutoff risk values corresponding to different levels of protection, and the importance given to different types of listing errors. We tested the performance of 3 sets of decision rules that use alternative functions for weighting the relative urgency of future extinction events: a threshold rule set, which uses a decision rule of x% probability of extinction over y years; a concave rule set, where the relative importance of future extinction events declines exponentially over time; and a shoulder rule set that uses a sigmoid shape function, where relative importance declines slowly at first and then more rapidly. We obtained decision cutoffs by interviewing several biologists and then emulated the listing process with simulations that covered a range of extinction risks typical of ESA listing decisions. We evaluated performance of the decision rules under different data quantities and qualities on the basis of the relative importance of misclassification errors. Although there was little difference between the performance of alternative decision rules for correct listings, the distribution of misclassifications differed depending on the function used. Misclassifications for the threshold and concave listing criteria resulted in more overprotection errors, particularly as uncertainty increased, whereas errors for the shoulder listing criteria were more symmetrical. We developed and tested the framework for quantitative decision rules for listing species under the U.S. ESA. If policy values can be agreed on, use of this framework would improve the implementation of the ESA by increasing transparency and consistency. Evaluando Reglas de Decisión para Categorizar el Riesgo de Extinción de Especies con el Fin de Desarrollar de Criterios Cuantitativos de Alistamiento en el Acta de Especies en Peligro de los EE. UU.     

母体暴露环境浓度盐酸四环素对F1代斑马鱼胚胎骨骼发育的影响

抗生素被广泛应用于兽药和饲料添加剂中,尤其是四环素等广谱抗生素,长期滥用于养殖业中。四环素是目前用量最大、应用范围最广泛的一种抗生素。抗生素在体内蓄积,或者以原型随粪便排入环境中,造成环境污染。实验用斑马鱼为模式动物来评价低浓度四环素对斑马鱼下一代（F1）发育的毒性影响。选取4月龄亲代斑马鱼（F0）,分别给予0.1、1和100 μg·L^-1盐酸四环素（tetracycline hydrochloride,TCH）处理30 d后,实施交配后获得F1代斑马鱼胚胎。结果表明,F1代胚胎随母体TCH暴露浓度的升高而孵化率降低、畸形率和死亡率增加。同时斑马鱼幼鱼下颌骨长度、下颌弓长度变长、下颌骨宽度和舌骨角长度缩短。进一步检测与幼鱼骨骼发育相关基因表达,发现TCH抑制了runx1、sox9a、sox10和col2α1a mRNA的表达。以上研究结果表明,TCH的残留和污染可能会影响斑马鱼胚胎的发育,尤其是对胚胎软骨发育有影响。     

Living at the Edge: Local versus Positional Factors in the Long‐Term Population Dynamics of an Endangered Orchid

Abstract: Populations at the margin of geographic ranges of distribution have been considered more vulnerable than central ones, but recent reviews have caste doubt on this generalization. We examined the reproductive and demographic performance of a rare Euroasiatic orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) at its southwesterly range limit and compared our findings with those of previous studies of nine central populations at the center of the orchid's range. We sought to test the central‐marginal model and to evaluate factors involved in long‐term performance of forest Eurosiberian species with peripheral populations in southern European mountains. We characterized (structure, temporal fluctuations, herbivory, reproductive success, and recruitment at different habitats) four Pyrenean populations of C. calceolus of different sizes (5–3500 ramets) and monitored three of them for up to 13 years. Two quantitative stochastic models (count data and matrix models) were used to assess population trends and viability and the effect of herbivory. Contrary to expectations, and despite the negative effect of sporadic events of herbivory, the peripheral populations we studied (except the smallest one) performed similarly or better than populations occurring in central part of the species’ range in terms of reproductive success and population growth rates. Landscape changes over the last 50 years suggest that natural reforestation could be involved in the success of this plant at its southern limit. Forest expansion in the mountain regions of southern Europe may provide new opportunities for plants with geographic distributions centered mainly at higher latitudes and give some hope for their recovery in future scenarios dominated by biodiversity loss.     

稳定代谢葡萄糖和木糖产乙醇的重组酿酒酵母工程菌初步构建

分别克隆了休哈塔假丝酵母(Candida shehatae)的木糖还原酶基因XYL1和热带假丝酵母(Candida tropicalis)的木糖醇脱氢酶基因XYL2,构建出重组表达质粒pACT2-xy11和pDR195-xy12,并使其分别转化酿酒酵母受体细胞.酶活测定结果显示,转化子中木糖还原酶和木糖醇脱氢酶均在宿主菌中得到活性表达.并将这两个基因连同各自重组表达质粒上的表达元件进行了克隆,进而构建出重组酵母染色体整合质粒YIp5.kanR-x12,以期今后通过同源重组的原理将上述基因整合到发酵性能良好的酿酒酵母基因组中,得到稳定代谢葡萄糖和木糖产乙醇的重组酵母菌株.图3表1参15     

Potential Misuse of Avian Density as a Conservation Metric

Abstract: Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual‐ and population‐level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density‐independent and density‐dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density‐dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels.     

DLL-1菌在土壤中对甲基对硫磷农药的降解性能与影响因素研究

研究了邻单胞菌(DLL-1)在土壤中降解甲基对硫磷的性能与影响因素.DLL-1菌在江西红壤、太湖水稻土、东北黑土与河北砂壤土中均能发挥高效降解甲基对硫磷农药的作用.试验结果表明,农药浓度在1.5-450mgkg范围内,DLL1菌作用24h后,降解率达86.0%-95.2%.在模拟水田与旱田试验中,加菌24h后土壤中甲基对硫磷农药的降解率均达到95%以上,而对照试验中降解率仅为18.8%、42.2%.田间小区试验结果:当DLL1菌剂用量大于3gm2时,在田间土壤环境中即产生明显的强降解作用.     

The Impending Peak and Decline of Petroleum Production: an Underestimated Challenge for Conservation of Ecological Integrity

Abstract: In the last few decades petroleum has been consumed at a much faster pace than new reserves have been discovered. The point at which global oil extraction will attain a peak (“peak oil”) and begin a period of unavoidable decline is approaching. This eventuality will drive fundamental changes in the quantity and nature of energy flows through the human economic system, which probably will be accompanied by economic turmoil, political conflicts, and a high level of social tension. Besides being a geological and economic issue, peak oil is also a fundamental concern as it pertains to ecological systems and conservation because economics is a subsystem of the global ecosystem and changes in human energy‐related behaviors can lead to a broad range of effects on natural ecosystems, ranging from overuse to abandonment. As it becomes more difficult to meet energy demands, environmental considerations may be easily superseded. Given the vital importance of ecosystems and ecosystem services in a postpetroleum era, it is crucially important to wisely manage our ecosystems during the transition period to an economy based on little or no use of fossil fuels. Good policies can be formulated through awareness and understanding gained from scenario‐based assessments. Presently, most widely used global scenarios of environmental change do not incorporate resource limitation, including those of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Considering the potential magnitude of the effects of peak oil on society and nature, the development of resource‐constrained scenarios should be addressed immediately. Ecologists and conservation biologists are in an important position to analyze the situation and provide guidance, yet the topic is noticeably absent from ecological discussions. We urge politicians, corporate chief executives, thought leaders, and citizens to consider this problem seriously because it is likely to develop into one of the key environmental issues of the 21st century.     

秸秆还田对土壤有机碳结构的影响

秸秆还田既可以缓解土壤污染问题又可以增加土壤养分及改善土壤结构从而提高土壤质量。研究秸秆还田后土壤有机碳结构的变化对了解碳周转规律、促进农业管理和生产以及环境可持续发展具有重要意义。选取3种性质差异较大的土壤,分别为红壤、褐土及黑土。实验分为对照处理和添加质量分数为5%的水稻秸秆的秸秆处理。土壤在温室条件下培养24个月,每4个月取样一次,测定土壤中总有机碳含量及采用碳1s X射线吸收光谱测定土壤有机碳分子结构及各类型有机碳含量。实验结果显示,(1)黑土中总有机碳含量最高,达29.5-32.5 g·kg^-1,是红壤的4.7-6.4倍,褐土的3.9-4.9倍。加入秸秆后,红壤、褐土及黑土中有机碳含量较对照分别显著增加124%-196%、60%-110%和21%-28%。(2)3种土壤的对照中,有机碳主要以脂肪碳、羧基碳和烷氧碳存在。这3部分有机碳占总有机碳的百分比在红壤、褐土和黑土中分别为69.1%-86.6、79.6%-88.5%和87.3%-90.3%。加入秸秆后,3种土壤中有机碳类型依旧是上述3种有机碳占主导。(3)秸秆处理使红壤和黑土中有机碳疏水性增强,提高土壤团聚体稳定性,对改善土壤结构起促进作用。(4)秸秆加入后,红壤和褐土中发生正激发效应,这两种土壤中有机碳结构简单、稳定性减弱;黑土中发生负激发效应,其中有机碳结构趋于复杂,稳定性增强。