Accounting for Uncertainty in Making Species Protection Decisions

Abstract:  Uncertainty gives rise to two decision errors in implementing the U.S. Endangered Species Act: listing species that are not in danger of extinction and delisting species that are in danger of extinction. I evaluated four methods (minimum standard, precautionary principle, minimax regret criterion, adaptive management) for deciding whether to list or delist a species when there is uncertainty about how those decisions are likely to influence survival of the species. A safe minimum standard criterion preserves some minimum amount or safe standard (population) of a species unless maintaining that amount generates unacceptable social cost. The precautionary principle favors not delisting a species when there is insufficient evidence on the efficacy of state management plans for protecting them. A minimax regret criterion selects the delisting decision that minimizes the maximum loss likely to occur under alternative ecosystem states. When the cost of making a correct decision is less than the cost of making an incorrect decision, the minimax regret criteria indicates that delisting is the optimal decision. Active adaptive management employs statistically valid experiments to test hypotheses about the likely impacts of delisting decisions. Safe minimum standard and minimax regret criterion are not compatible with the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The precautionary principle comes closest to describing how federal agencies make delisting decisions. Active adaptive management is scientifically superior to the other methods but is costly and time consuming and may not be compatible with the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act.     

湖泊富营养化评价的S型曲线通用表示式

在适当设定富营养化指标的“本底”值情况下 ,当指标值用对应于“本底”值的相对值表示时 ,可采用 S型曲线描述湖泊富营养化发展程度 ,从而公式中的参数可视为与指标特性无关 ,采用遗传算法对公式中的参数优化 ,得到对多项指标通用的富营养化程度的指数计算公式 ,并用广义对比因子赋权新方法计算富营养化综合指数。该评价方法物理意义明确 ,计算简单 ,使用方便 ,具有可比性和通用性     

Efficiency of Modified H2S Test for Detection of Faecal Contamination in Water

Faecal contamination is a major causative factor for incidence of water borne infectious diseases. Certain hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) producing enteric bacteria such as Salmonella sp. and Citrobacter sp., assosiated with coliforms, have been considered for rapid detection of recent faecal contamination in water. The basic H₂S test medium, modified by adding 0.25 gm/L of L-cystine HCl, was examined for its efficiency with 90 water samples collected from 40 pipe supplies, 20 open wells, 15 hand pumps and 15 different surface water bodies (river, streams and ponds). Sterilized modified culture medium in glass vials was inoculated with 100 mL of each sample and incubated at 20, 25, 30, 35 and 44 ^∘C for 18, 24, 42, 48, 66 and 72 h. Blackening of content in incubated vials was considered positive. For comparison, most probable number (MPN) of coliform and faecal coliform per 100 mL was also estimated in each sample by multiple tube fermentation (MTF) method. H₂S positive result was exhibited by 78% of samples. Coliform (> 10) and faecal coliform/100 mL were also detected in 59% of samples. Maximum H₂S positive results (100%) were found with well and surface water samples incubated at 30, 35 and 44 ^∘C for 18 h. Coliform (> 10) and faecal coliform/100 mL were also detected in most of these samples. Pipe supplies (60%) and hand pumps (73%) also exhibited considerable H₂S production. Coliforms and faecal coliforms were also found in significant number of these samples. Thus, the modified H₂S test may prove a useful alternative indicator of faecal contamination for water quality surveillance and screening of large number of water samples in short duration, particularly during any outbreak of water borne disease among rural population.     

农业面源污染模型研究进展

综述了农业面源污染模型国内外研究进展,介绍了常用的面源污染模型概念与适用范围,明确"3S"技术与SWAT、AGNPS等模型有机结合是当今面源污染模型的研究热点。提出我国面源污染模型未来研究的重点是围绕水质改善目标,建立面向全流域尺度的面源污染负荷估算方法,构建完整的基础监测数据网络,为建立符合我国流域特性的面源污染模型提供支撑。     

基于拟杆菌16S rRNA基因进行微生物溯源的研究进展

微生物溯源方法可利用粪便中的微生物区分来自人或动物的粪便污染.其中,拟杆菌以其丰度高、不能体外繁殖和宿主特异性强等优势被广泛应用于微生物溯源研究中.本文以拟杆菌16S rRNA基因为标记物,总结了拟杆菌及其标记物在环境中的衰减、拟杆菌引物的敏感性和特异性以及分子生物学技术在微生物溯源中的运用,可为粪便污染源解析提供一定的科学参考依据.     

美军航母腐蚀控制技术体系的发展研究

从航母腐蚀控制技术体系这一航母应用技术的微小分支见微知著,对世界最强海军航母技术的发展历程、理念、思路、体制以及方向进行深入探究分析,以走出具有中国特色的航母技术发展之路。通过对美军航母腐蚀控制新材料与新工艺的应用、腐蚀控制在舰船全寿命周期应用、腐蚀控制技术体系发展理念、腐蚀控制技术体系科研体制创新的研究,对美军航母腐蚀控制技术体系进行深入了解。     

水稻不同生长时期不同组织中抗砷内生菌的筛选与鉴定

微生物对于土壤-植物系统中砷的迁移转化有重要作用,植物内生菌是一种极其丰富的微生物资源,但至今尚未有研究报道植物内生菌对砷污染的响应.采用组织分离法和涂布平板法,以水稻(甬优-538)为研究对象,分别于水稻幼苗期、分蘖期、开花期和成熟期(2015年5~8月)分离根部、茎部、叶部、穗部(仅成熟期)可培养内生细菌,并通过16S r DNA序列进行菌种鉴定.对分离所得内生菌先用1 mmol·L~(-1)亚砷酸钠[As(Ⅲ)]和10 mmol·L~(-1)砷酸钠[As(Ⅴ)]进行抗砷筛选,再用2mmol·L~(-1)的As(Ⅲ)和20 mmol·L~(-1)的As(Ⅴ)对初筛抗砷菌株进行复筛,以鉴定内生菌对不同砷形态的抗性.结果表明:共获得126株水稻内生菌,归为13个属,水稻幼苗期分离出8个属共37株菌;分蘖期分离出5个属共25株菌;开花期分离出8个属共24株菌;成熟期分离出8个属共30株菌.主要优势菌属为芽孢杆菌属(Bacillus sp.)、假单胞菌属(Psoudomonas sp.)和不动杆菌属(Acinetobacter sp.).抗砷初筛选实验中得到20株菌对1 mmol·L~(-1)的As(Ⅲ)和10 mmol·L~(-1)的As(Ⅴ)的抗性较强,复筛发现其中16株菌对2 mmol·L~(-1)As(Ⅲ)有较强抗性,13株菌对20 mmol·L~(-1)As(Ⅴ)有较强抗性,其中菌株CS1对两种形态砷的耐性最显著.     

高通量测序技术应用于污水处理厂细菌气溶胶群落结构分析

由于污水及其处理设施中细菌气溶胶的逸散作用,导致污水处理厂细菌气溶胶的群落结构较为复杂,因此,选择适宜的采样和分析方法对其多样性的认识和风险评估具有重要意义.本研究以某城市污水厂为研究对象,采用"总悬浮颗粒物采样器+高通量测序技术"分别对污水处理全过程进行细菌气溶胶的收集与分析;作为对照,采用"Andersen六级采样器+克隆文库技术"进行同步采样和分析.结果表明,前者对各采样点气溶胶中细菌的多样性、总体群落组成、优势群落的解析均明显优于后者,分析更简便快捷,数据更全面、更接近其真实的分布状态.本研究结果可为污水处理厂细菌气溶胶的采样和分析方法的选择提供科学依据.     

基于.NET的B(S)/结构的环境管理信息系统的设计和开发研究

针对某企业目前环境管理的实际情况,分析该企业环境管理的各项需求,在对环境管理的的系统架构和功能平台进行充分设计的基础上,开发出一套较为完整的企业环境管理信息系统,使得企业中各部门能快捷共享环境数据库,提高企业处理环境事务的信息化水平.在系统的实现上,选定ASP.Net作为WEB服务端的开发技术,SQL Server作为后台数据库技术,完成基于.NET的B/S结构的企业环境管理信息系统的设计和开发,并成功应用于该企业的环境管理,满足了对环境管理信息化的需求.     

高效生物滴滤塔处理化工污水含H2S恶臭气体实验研究

以化工污水水解酸化池收集的现场恶臭气体作为实验气体,以陶粒、半软性塑料作为生物滴滤塔的填料,探讨了生物滴滤塔挂膜过程阻力变化和H2S气体脱除率关系,并以生活污水为营养液进行了连续实验.实验研究表明：在所选实验条件下,为使H2S出口浓度达到0.06mg/m^3,生活污水COD应维持250mg/L以下,SO4^2-浓度＜1400mg/L.