美国地震风险评估中建筑物易损性与损失组合的探讨

探讨了以美国地震灾害风险评估模型为例的建筑物易损性模型的建立方法及地震随机事件损失组合的方法.由于应用对象的不同,如用于工程项目风险的评估或是对保险资产风险的评估,其易损性模型建立的方式具有较大的差异.在工程应用中,注重对建筑结构的分析,往往使用非线性解析方法如能力频谱法等以得到结构的易损性或脆弱曲线;而保险行业常用历史数据并运用统计方法等获取所需的易损性曲线.由于工程应用的易损性曲线有更好的精准性,越来越多保险用模型采用此方法.此外,工程应用常对单一地震事件进行评估,而保险行业的模型往往涉及对大量随机事件的评估.对不同的建筑物易损性建模方法、规范标准及适用范围进行了探讨,并对随机事件损失组合方法中如何计算损失的单次超越概率(OEP)和累计超越概率(AEP)进行了介绍.     

Modeling Stream Shade: Riparian Buffer Height and Density as Important as Buffer Width1

DeWalle, David R., 2010. Modeling Stream Shade: Riparian Buffer Height and Density as Important as Buffer Width. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):323-333. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00423.x Abstract: A theoretical model was developed to explore impacts of varying buffer zone characteristics on shading of small streams using a path-length form of Beer’s law to represent the transmission of direct beam solar radiation through vegetation. Impacts of varying buffer zone height, width, and radiation extinction coefficients (surrogate for buffer density) on shading were determined for E-W and N-S stream azimuths in infinitely long stream sections at 40°N on the summer solstice. Increases in buffer width produced little additional shading beyond buffer widths of 6-7 m for E-W streams due to shifts in solar beam pathway from the sides to the tops of the buffers. Buffers on the north bank of E-W streams produced 30% of daily shade, while the south-bank buffer produced 70% of total daily shade. For N-S streams an optimum buffer width was less-clearly defined, but a buffer width of about 18-20 m produced about 85-90% of total predicted shade. The model results supported past field studies showing buffer widths of 9-11 m were sufficient for stream temperature control. Regardless of stream azimuth, increases in buffer height and extinction coefficient (buffer density) were found to substantially increase shading up to the maximum tree height and stand density likely encountered in the field. Model results suggest that at least 80% shade on small streams up to 6-m wide can be achieved in mid-latitudes with relatively narrow 12-m wide buffers, regardless of stream azimuth, as long as buffers are tall (≈30 m) and dense (leaf area index ≈6). Although wide buffers may be preferred to provide other benefits, results suggest that increasing buffer widths beyond about 12 m will have a limited effect on stream shade at mid-latitudes and that greater emphasis should be placed on the creation of dense, tall buffers to maximize stream shading.     

农村宅基地制度创新与理论解释——江苏省江都市的实证研究

本研究采用定量研究方法,建立农村宅基地制度创新模型,研究数据来源于江都市3县30个村的实地调查,主要是分析农村宅基地制度的创新过程和诱导因素,为国家引导和制定合理的宅基地制度提供理论依据。研究结果表明,20世纪90年代以来,以江都市为代表的农村宅基地制度逐渐从无偿、无流动向有偿、有流动演变,宅基地产权权能日益完善。影响农村宅基地制度创新的主要因素是农村土地资源短缺程度、土地开发利用状况、区位条件、各主体经济状况(主要是农民人均纯收入的增加)、人力资本以及政策等因素。鉴于此,在未来的宅基地制度创新过程中要注重研究宅基地要素相对价格变化趋势,选择宅基地制度创新方向;提高农民文化水平,加快人力资本建设,提高其可行能力;以及积极发挥政策的诱导和支持作用。     

基本农田保护政策的耕地保护效果评价

为分析基本农田保护政策对耕地保护的效果,论文把目标分解为两个问题,一是基本农田保护政策的实施是否对耕地流失面积的减少产生了影响;二是如果有显著影响,效果有多大,即因基本农田保护政策的实施,耕地流失面积减少了多少。论文收集了2004-2007年的省级面版数据,分别采用了固定效应模型、随机效应和混合OLS模型加以估计,固定效应和随机效应检验结果表明,固定效应和随机效应模型均不优于混合OLS模型。在模型估计结果的基础上,论文分析了基本农田保护政策对耕地流失的影响,并计算了基本农田保护政策的耕地保护效果。分析表明:①在2004-2007年期间,基本农田保护政策的实施对于减少耕地流失面积产生了显著影响,基本农田保护率每提高1%,每省每年平均耕地流失面积约能减少364.4 hm2;②由于基本农田保护政策的实施,2004-2007年期间,全国耕地流失面积分别减少了853 445.19 hm2,847 724.91 hm2,859 559.37 hm2和857 961.26 hm2,4年合计减少耕地流失面积3 418 690.73 hm2,约为期间实际耕地流失面积3 020 769.49 hm2的1.13倍。     

中国工业行业技能偏向型技术变化的实证检验

近年来,我国工业行业技能劳动力的需求快速增加,技能供需矛盾日益突出。虽然有文献认为技能偏向型技术变化是其中的重要原因,但是对技能偏向型技术变化存在性的规范检验几乎一片空白。本文基于经典文献提供的实证方法,以工业全行业和大中型行业为实证对象,规范检验20世纪90年代以来我国工业技术进步的技能偏向性。首先,对技能劳动力就业份额变化进行分解的结果表明,我国工业就业结构技能升级的主导因素是细分行业内而不是细分行业之间技能劳动力就业份额的变化。其次,基于我国工业经济的特性,计量检验了技术进步、对外开放和资本-技能互补性等因素对工业就业结构技能升级的影响,揭示了技术进步与技能劳动力就业份额之间显著的正相关关系。这两方面的结果验证了20世纪90年代以来我国工业行业的技能偏向型技术变化,并为技能劳动力短缺提供了基于需求角度的解释。     

《中国21世纪议程》:迎接挑战的战略抉择与实践探索

制定《中国21世纪议程》是中国发展必然的战略选择,是中国履行环发大会精神的重要举措。近20年来,我国立足基本国情,积极推进《中国21世纪议程》的实施,探索实践中国特色的可持续发展道路,做出了巨大努力,在发展经济、消除贫困、节约资源、保护环境等领域取得了举世瞩目的成就,对全球可持续发展做出了重要贡献。随着世情国情的深刻变化,我国进一步实施可持续发展战略面临着新的挑战,发展中不平衡、不协调、不可持续的问题依然严峻,发展的任务仍然十分艰巨。我们应该坚持以科学发展观为统领,坚定不移地走中国特色的可持续发展之路,充分把握全球绿色技术创新迸发的历史机遇,切实加快经济发展方式的转变;坚持共同但有区别责任的原则和合作共赢的理念,积极参与全球可持续发展治理,促进世界的可持续发展、和谐发展。     

PCR-酶切技术在石油烃降解菌筛选鉴定中的应用

将以原油驯化所得的纯培养微生物菌株作为模板,采用PCR(聚合酶链式反应)法,用扩增细菌16S rDNA的一对通用引物(8 f,1492 r)对模板扩增,并用限制性内切酶R saI和M spI对PCR产物进行ARDRA多态性分析。聚类去除重复菌株后60株菌株可分为11种不同分类操作单元(OTU),同时得出每个分类操作单元的数量。实验结果表明,此方法可快速去除重复菌株并反映出菌株间的系统进化关系;同时实验数据可构建成库,使后续分离菌株的筛选工作只需比对数据即可完成。     

Recognizing Indigenous peoples’ and local communities’ rights and agency in the post-2020 Biodiversity Agenda

The Convention on Biological Diversity is defining the goals that will frame future global biodiversity policy in a context of rapid biodiversity decline and under pressure to make transformative change. Drawing on the work of Indigenous and non-Indigenous scholars, we argue that transformative change requires the foregrounding of Indigenous peoples’ and local communities’ rights and agency in biodiversity policy. We support this argument with four key points. First, Indigenous peoples and local communities hold knowledge essential for setting realistic and effective biodiversity targets that simultaneously improve local livelihoods. Second, Indigenous peoples’ conceptualizations of nature sustain and manifest CBD’s 2050 vision of “Living in harmony with nature.” Third, Indigenous peoples’ and local communities’ participation in biodiversity policy contributes to the recognition of human and Indigenous peoples’ rights. And fourth, engagement in biodiversity policy is essential for Indigenous peoples and local communities to be able to exercise their recognized rights to territories and resources.     

一种新型水质自动采样仪的研制

将计算机技术应用于采样仪中,实现人－机对话,同时配以运行可靠,成本较低的水样采集,贮存和转换等部件,实现自动采样,达到智能化的目的。采样仪的控制采用单片机技术,以８０３１芯片作为微处理器,配以外围接口电路和功能键盘,体积小,成本低。采集贮存系统由蠕动泵,电磁铁及配套的机械传动装置,水样贮存盘和容器等组成,结构简单,运行平稳。采样有连续采样和间歇采样２种功能,并可按需要任意调节采样时间,采样周期,切     

A correlation of the lower flammability limit for hybrid mixtures

Hybrid mixtures are widely encountered in industries such as coal mines, paint factories, pharmaceutical industries, or grain elevators. Hybrid mixtures explosions involving dust and gas can cause great loss of lives and properties. The lower flammability limit (LFL) is a critical parameter when conducting a hazard assessment or developing mitigation methods for processes involving hybrid mixtures. Unlike unitary dust or gas explosions, which have been widely studied in past decades, only minimal research focuses on hybrid mixtures, and data concerning hybrid mixtures can rarely be found. Although methods to predict the LFL have been developed by using either Le Chatelier's Law, which was initially proposed for homogeneous gas mixtures, or the Bartknecht curve, which was adopted for only certain hybrid mixtures, significant deviations still remain. A more accurate correlation to predict an LFL for a hybrid mixtures explosion is necessary for risk assessment. This work focuses on the study of hybrid mixtures explosions in a 36 L dust explosion apparatus including mixtures of methane/niacin, methane/cornstarch, ethane/niacin and ethylene/niacin in air. By utilizing basic characteristics of unitary dust or gas explosions, a new formula is proposed to improve the prediction of the LFL of the mixture. The new formula is consistent with Le Chatelier's Law.