火灾定量预测方法研究

应用预测学原理，对火灾定量预测方法进行了探讨，建立了一套适应不同火灾历史统计特点的平滑预测模型：滑动平均预测模型和指数平滑预测模型；考虑火灾事故的季节性变化，建立了季节性平滑预测模型。应用二重指数平滑预测模型和季节性平滑预测模型，对荆州地区１９９３￣１９９４年的火灾统计资料进行分析和预测，结果表明该地区今后的火灾发生呈上升趋势，提请有关部门注意防火安全。     

城市火灾危险性分析

本文提出了一个城市火灾危险性分析的一般模型。通过对实际火灾案例的统计分析，提出了火灾发生率的主导统计参数。并提出以超越概率曲线的方法来表达火灾危险性分析的结果。经验证，该模型具有可操作性，结论可信。     

Analysis and application of forest fuels data

Recent advances in fire modeling permit quantitative estimations of fire behavior from quantitative inputs that describe the fuel array and conditions, such as weather and site data, under which it will burn. This paper describes the collection, analysis, and stratification of flammable forest fuels data for coniferous forest ecosystems in Montana and then illustrates the resource management application of these data in three areas: the development of the fire behavior model, a determination of the model's sensitivity to input errors as reflected by fire behavior prediction errors, and the development of a fire hazard simulator (TAROT). A new integrated stand simulator, GANDALF, is highlighted.Conclusions center on the need to integrate fire management into the land management planning decision-making process.This work was supported by a USDI National Park Service contract to Gradient Modeling, Inc., a nonprofit research foundation devoted to ecologic research and resource management applications, and by cooperative aid agreements between Gradient Modeling, Inc. and the USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Northern Forest Fire Laboratory (Fire in Multiple Use Management, R, D, and A Program).     

Effects of off-road vehicles on coastal foredunes at Fire Island,New York,USA

The effects of off-road vehicles (ORVs) on the dune system of Fire Island National Seashore, New York, USA, were examined through a detailed, two-year field study. The experimental approach was adopted in order to evaluate the environmental effects of ORVs in this zone. Adjacent control and impact sites were established in two locations. Vehicle impacts were applied at the equivalent rate of one vehicle pass per week. Monitoring of foredune vegetation through sequential quadrat surveys and construction of sea-ward limit maps showed a significant loss of vegetation resulting from ORV impacting. Loss of vegetation resulted in an alteration of the natural foredune profile, which could increase dune erosion during storm wave attack.     

采场调压数学模型在煤矿火区治理中的应用

采场调压可改变采场内气体流动的状况,抑制采空区自然发火。笔者采用Ｗａｒｄ 非线性运动方程,建立采场调压数学模型,利用有限元法对其进行求解。通过对小恒山煤矿东正巷出口的调压进行计算机模拟,从而掌握火区内部参数的变化趋势,及时预测调压潜力及效果,指导调压措施的进一步实施。     

受限空间烟气运动盐水模拟研究的现状和展望

回顾了受限空间火灾烟气运动盐水实验模拟研究的发展历史;介绍了盐水实验模拟的理论基础及其在火灾烟气运动研究领域的应用情况和最新进展;分析和讨论了模拟研究过程中所存在的主要问题及其可能的解决方法。所有这些研究和探索,对于受限空间火灾烟气运动盐水实验模拟研究方法的创新和完善有重要的启发作用。     

火灾事故危险源辩识、评价及控制

运用系统安全工程方法对火灾事故危险源的辩识、评价及控制进行分析，提出火灾事故危险源辩识、评价及控制的方法。     

An innovative three-dimensional approach for the simulation of pressure vessels exposed to fire

The present study introduces an innovative approach to the detailed simulation of the pressure build-up in equipment containing saturated liquids when exposed to fire. The approach is based on the adoption of a fully three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the inner fluid. Experimental data gathered from literature studies were used to validate the model considering vessels of several scales and geometries exposed to a full engulfing pool fire. The comparison between the results of the 3D CFD model developed and those of two-dimensional (2D) literature models was also carried out. This enabled deriving precise indications on the selection of the most suitable approach based on the type of accidental scenario to reproduce, confirming 2D models as sound and reliable tools to model the fluid behaviour when homogeneous heat exposure conditions are present. On the other side, limitations of 2D approaches in capturing edge effects on i) temperature profiles, ii) recirculation patterns, and iii) energy accumulation in the vessel lading during fire exposure were identified and discussed. The results obtained represent a valuable source of information to support risk management and emergency response planning.     

窄带水平集法下林火蔓延仿真研究

火焰锋面的追踪是建立林火蔓延模型及预测锋面位置的关键环节。基于水平集法追踪锋面具有求解灵活稳定、易于处理锋面拓扑结构变化的特点。针对传统水平集法重新初始化过程复杂、计算量较大的问题,根据距离函数定义,提出通过形态学膨胀的方法以锋面点为圆心向外膨胀,获得锋面附近窄带内每个点距离锋面的最近距离,重建窄带内的水平集函数,物理意义明确,有效减小了计算量,在此基础上基于林火速度场经验模型模拟了单火源及双火源的锋面蔓延情况。结果表明,该方法能够有效模拟坡度、风速等因素对火焰锋面的影响,为其在林火蔓延模型中的应用提供了基础。     

基于图像的火焰锋面法向速度场测量研究

火焰锋面是火焰的重要组成部分,反映了火焰的燃烧特性。针对传统方法测量火焰锋面速度场分辨率较低的问题,提出来了基于图像法测量火焰锋面法向速度场的方法。使用高速相机拍摄了多帧连续图像,提取火焰锋面,通过最小二乘法拟合锋面的切线,从而计算出每个点的法向速度,并进一步分析了火焰振荡的性质。实验表明该方法能够有效测量双瓦楞纸板产生的火焰在不同时刻的速度场,具有高分辨率、全场测量的特点,为其进一步推广提供了实验基础。