LPG leakage and explosion accident analysis based on a new SAA method

The petrochemical industry has inherently high safety risks. On 5^th June 2017, a liquefied petroleum gas tanker in the storage and transportation department of Linyi Jinyu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. leaked during unloading, causing a major explosion and fire. Ten people were killed and nine were injured. To prevent the recurrence of similar accidents, a retrospective accident analysis was conducted using the system accident analysis method known as ‘24Model’. This analysis proved the coupling relationship between accident causes involving multiple organisations and multiple factors. The analysis results show that the five modules of maintenance and design, that is, loading and unloading valves, emergency training, management of subsidiaries and contractors, multi-level supervision, and task arrangement need to be checked from top to bottom by relevant organisations.In order to verify the reliability of 24Model analysis results, three SAA methods, namely STAMP, FRAM, AcciMap, were used to analyse the accident, and results obtained by the four methods were evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively. The results show that the output of 24Model is reliable and has a more understandable framework, which can be used as reference for the development of other linear accident cause models and application of system accident analysis methods to real applications.     

新毒性试验生物萼花臂尾轮虫的特性试验

研究了萼花臂尾轮虫Ｂｒａｃｈｉｏｎｕｓ ｃａｌｙｃｉｆｌｏｒｕｓ ２４ｈ标准化急性毒性试验的可行性和优越性。应用轮虫休眠卵，在２５℃、３０００ｌｘ的强光照下进行孵化，吸取孵化后３ｈ内的幼体，进行２４ｈ（暗相）急性毒性试验。研究表明，Ｃｕ、Ｈｇ、ＮａＰＣＰ、ＳＤＳ、Ｃｄ、Ｚｎ、Ｎｉ、ＮＨ３对Ｂ．ｃａｌｙｃｉｆｌｏｒｕｓ的２４ｈ ＬＣ５０值分别为０．０２２、０．０４３、１．３０、１．４７、１．７７、１     

公路工程施工安全事故致因模型构建

为了探究公路施工安全事故诱因及其影响关系,基于"4M"理论和事故致因"2-4"模型,识别公路工程施工安全事故致因因素并确定模型框架,运用SPSS Modeler软件对2007~2017年426起事故进行关联规则挖掘,采取路径分析与重要度分析,构建出公路工程施工安全事故致因模型。结果表明:施工单位内外部原因共同引发公路工程施工安全事故,外部原因来源于建设单位、监理单位和勘察设计单位的安全管理缺失,而施工单位内部影响因素中,人的不安全动作、物的不安全因素、不良的生产环境和自然环境是事故发生的直接原因,无效的安全监管和作业层安全素质及能力不强是间接原因,根本原因是施工程序和技术方案存在缺陷,根源原因是决策层和管理层的安全素质及能力有待提高。该模型系统展现了工程施工项目安全事故致因因素的影响关系和重要程度,为公路工程施工安全事故预防提供指导。     

氯代苯类化合物对江水细菌的毒性及QSAR研究

采用细菌生长抑制实验,测定了18种氯苯类化合物对长江水中混合细菌的毒性,得到24 hIC₅₀值,-1gIC₅₀为3.65～4.32,其中,毒性最弱的是氯苯,毒性最强的是1,2,4-三氯苯.选用分子连接性指数法对毒性数据进行定量结构活性关系(QSAR)研究.结果表明,氯苯类化合物对江水细菌的毒性与苯环上取代基的种类、数目和位置有关,价分子连接性指数0XV和7X_CHV能够很好地描述氯苯类化合物对江水细菌的毒性.方程-1gIC₅₀=0.8390XV-25.3727X_CHV+0.802的稳健性很好,该模型的预测值与毒性实测值之间的相关系数达0.948.      

Climate policies and skill-biased employment dynamics: Evidence from EU countries

The political acceptability of climate policies is undermined by job-killing arguments, especially for the least-skilled workers. However, evidence of the distributional impacts for different workers remains scant. We examine the associations between climate policies, proxied by energy prices, and workforce skills for 14 European countries and 15 industrial sectors over the period 1995–2011. Using a shift-share instrumental variable estimator and controlling for the influence of automation and globalization, we find that climate policies have been skill biased against manual workers and have favoured technicians. The long-term change in energy prices accounted for between 9.2% and 17.5% (resp. 4.2% and 8.0%) of the increase (resp. decrease) in the share of technicians (resp. manual workers).     

Long-term impacts of exposure to high temperatures on human capital and economic productivity

Weather anomalies have a range of adverse contemporaneous impacts on health and socio-economic outcomes. This paper tests if temperature anomalies around the time of birth can have long-term impacts on individuals' economic productivity. Using unique data sets on historical weather and earnings, place and date of birth of all 1.5 million formal employees in Ecuador, we find that individuals who have experienced in-utero temperatures that are 1 °C above average are less educated and earn about 0.7% less as adults. Results are robust to alternative specifications and falsification tests and suggest that warming may have already caused adverse long-term economic impacts.     

Factor demand flexibility in the primary aluminium industry: Evidence from stagnating and expanding regions

The purpose of the paper is to analyse and compare short-run factor demand responses to price changes in the primary aluminium industry in Western Europe and the Africa-Middle East (AME) region. We outline a Translog variable cost function model, which is estimated employing a panel data set at the individual smelter level over the time period 1990-2003. The empirical results show evidence of limited - but far from insignificant - price-induced factor demand responses in the short-run. Overall aluminium smelters in the AME-region show evidence of higher estimated short-run own- and cross-price elasticities than their competitors in Western Europe, at least when it comes to labour and electricity demand. One important reason for this result is the greater number of pot lines with slightly different technologies at each smelter as well as the more intense use of the Prebake technology in the AME-region making retrofits in existing plants less costly than in Western Europe. The results also suggest that in both regions the demand for electricity has over time become less sensitive to short-run price changes, while the labour and material demand responses to price changes have increased but only in the AME-region. The liberalisation of the Western European electricity markets in combination with the rigid labour markets in this part of the world suggest that the shift in production capacity from the western world to the AME-region as well as China may continue.     

Neighborhood effects in the Brazilian Amazônia: Protected areas and deforestation

This article investigates whether protected areas are efficient instruments against deforestation in the Brazilian Amazônia. A Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model taking into account both the location bias and the spatial spillover effects between municipalities allows to assess the impact of the different types of protected areas (integral protected areas, sustainable protected areas and indigenous lands) on deforestation. We show that deforestation decisions are strategic complements. The econometric results differ according to the type of protected area. It is shown that: i) integral protected areas and indigenous lands allow for reducing deforestation; ii) sustainable use areas do not help to reduce deforestation; and iii) the spillover effects generated by integral protected areas and indigenous lands lead a reduction in deforestation in their vicinity. A 10% increase in the surface area of integral protected areas (indigenous lands) allows an estimated 9.32 sq. km (10.08 sq. km) of avoided deforestation.     

Input–output analysis in an oil-rich economy: The case of Azerbaijan

This paper aims to provide empirical research to identify the linkages between final demand–total output, final demand–total supply, value-added ratios and prices, and also to analyze total factor productivity growth using input–output framework for 25 sectors. Studying the input–output tables for 2001 and 2006, the research estimates impact and response multipliers of non-oil sectors, as well as non-oil trading sectors. The results are important from the view of development of non-oil trading sectors and diversification of the economy in order to avoid the “resource curse”.     

高大模板支撑体系坍塌事故不安全行为原因分析

为预防高大模板支撑体系建筑施工坍塌事故的发生,选取2000-2016年间的31起高大模板支撑体系建筑施工坍塌事故案例,运用事故统计与分析方法,以行为安全“2-4”模型为理论依据,对31起事故中的不安全动作及其规律进行研究。研究表明:出现频次最高的事故等级为较大事故。一线作业人员因安全知识不足“不知道是否应该设置剪刀撑”引发不安全动作“剪刀撑数量不足或未设置剪刀撑”的发生率为71.43%,因安全意识缺乏“没意识到杆件距离过大给施工带来的危险”引发不安全动作“立杆间距和横杆步距过大”的发生率为78.57%;管理人员因安全意识缺乏“没意识到按规定进行安全交底的重要性”引发不安全动作“未进行安全技术交底”的发生率为78.57%,因不佳安全习惯“按照以前的方案习惯施工”引发不安全动作“未制定专项施工方案”的发生率为83.33%。因此,减少不安全动作的首要任务是加强一线作业人员违规操作的管理,企业在制定对策措施时,应从加强一线作业人员与管理人员的安全知识、安全意识和安全习惯入手,预防不安全动作的发生,进而有效预防事故。