卡拉胶与明胶包埋黄孢原毛平革菌的方法研究

用卡拉胶和明胶包埋固定黄孢原毛平革菌,建立以模式染料为标记的降解反应体系,以研究各种条件和因素对包埋效果的影响。试验表明,在卡拉胶包埋体系中,胶的产品来源、胶的浓度、溶液中的离子、菌量和交联时间等,都会影响包埋颗粒的强度、传质性能、稳定性及降解效率。在明胶包埋体系中,开孔明胶包埋小块的制备方法值得推荐。     

中国能源消费与温室气体排放预测分析

构造了中国18个部门的能源—经济—环境投入产出模型,分析了能源消耗系数的变动规律,对2020年我国能源消费量与温室气体排放量进行了预测。结果表明:我国2020年的能源消费总量为29.5亿t(标准煤),等于1990年的299％,1995年的229％;煤炭消费最为26亿t,石油消费量为4.1亿t,天然气消费量为1420亿m~3,水电6400亿kW·h;能源消费弹性系数为0.43左右;CO_2排放量为17.50亿t(碳当量)。     

Radiative dryness index and potential productivity of vegetation in China

The Chikugo Model is used to estimate radiative dryness indexes (RDI) and net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation zones in China by calculating cli-matic parameters. That provides the water-heat equilibrium condition, potential primary production for natural vegetation in various vegetation zones, and their geographical distribution pattern. That could be used as the basis for study the effect of global climate change on ecosystems.     

城市空气质量数值预报方法研究

城市空气质量数值预报,在时空分辨率和预报客观性方面具有明显优势,是未来城市空气质量预报的主要发展方向。以济南市为例,探索建立了一套较为成熟的城市空气质量数值预报方法。该方法采用高分辨率对流层化学模式系统为预报模式基础,同时根据济南市特点对模式系统进行修正,取得了较好的预报效果。此外,该模式系统由于能够较为准确地模拟城市范围内污染物的时空分布,在城市空气污染防治规划方面具有较为广泛的应用前景。     

不安全动作与不安全物态的判定方法探讨

根据事故致因"2-4"模型,人的不安全动作与物的不安全状态是事故发生的直接原因,但国内外学者关于二者的判定方法并未形成共识。为了寻找不安全动作与不安全物态科学的判定方法,首先,通过文献研究,综述了国内外学者对不安全动作、不安全物态的分类及定义;其次,从理论层面论述了不安全动作、不安全物态的判定方法;最后,以一起重大瓦斯爆炸事故为例对不安全动作及不安全物态的判定方法进行实证分析。结果表明,基于事故致因"2-4"模型的不安全动作和不安全物态判定方法有效。     

Assessing Retrospective National Water Model Streamflow with Respect to Droughts and Low Flows in the Colorado River Basin

Streamflow monitoring in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is essential to ensure diverse needs are met, especially during periods of drought or low flow. Existing stream gage networks, however, provide a limited record of past and current streamflow. Modeled streamflow products with more complete spatial and temporal coverage (including the National Water Model [NWM]), have primarily focused on flooding, rather than sustained drought or low flow conditions. Objectives of this study are to (1) evaluate historical performance of the NWM streamflow estimates (particularly with respect to droughts and seasonal low flows) and (2) identify characteristics relevant to model inputs and suitability for future applications. Comparisons of retrospective flows from the NWM to observed flows from the United States Geological Survey stream gage network over 22 years in the CRB reveal a tendency for underestimating low flow frequency, locations with low flows, and the number of years with low flows. We found model performance to be more accurate for the Upper CRB and at sites with higher precipitation, snow percent, baseflow index, and elevations. Underestimation of low flows and variable model performance has important implications for future applications: inaccurate evaluations of historical low flows and droughts, and less reliable performance outside of specific watershed/stream conditions. This highlights characteristics on which to focus future model development efforts.     

中国资源型城市房价时空变化与影响因素分析

基于禧泰数据库的全国城市二手房价监测数据,利用描述统计和GIS空间分析方法详细分析了2011—2018年126个中国资源型城市房价时空变化特征,并采用空间杜宾模型进一步揭示了其影响因素。研究结果表明：（1）2011年和2018年中国资源型城市平均房价分别为4105元/m²和5675元/m²,再生型城市、成熟型城市、成长型城市和衰退型城市的平均房价依次递减;（2）2011—2018年中国资源型城市平均房价呈现出波动上升的态势,房价增长率为38.2%,远低于全国城市平均房价增长幅度55.3%,且不同类型资源型城市房价的增长幅度有所差异,以成熟型和再生型城市的房价增幅相对较大;（3）中国资源型城市房价和变化存在显著的空间集聚特征,房价热点区主要集中在东部地区和中部地区城市,房价冷点区主要以东北地区和西部地区城市为主;（4）空间杜宾模型显示,人均GDP、人均住房开发投资、多样化指数、专业化指数和工业废水排放强度是影响中国资源型城市房价空间差异的主要因素。     

闽三角地区碳排放时空差异及影响因素研究

以闽三角地区为研究对象,以2005~2017年为研究期,构建城市尺度的碳排放清单,应用对数平均迪氏指数分解方法从时间维度的纵向比较和典型年份城市横向比较两个维度开展了驱动因素的分解分析及评价,探讨了闽三角碳排放变化影响因素的时空差异.结果显示：研究期内闽三角CO₂排放增长较快,从2005年的74.08Mt增加到2017年169.48Mt,增幅为128.75%.其中,泉州贡献最大,占比为67.93%.碳排放变化趋势分析来看,产业结构和经济增长为导致闽三角地区碳排放量增长的主要因素,累计贡献度分别为30.38%和12.21%,能源结构为抑制碳排放的重要影响因素,累计贡献度为-45.76%.时空差异上看,能源结构效应在研究期内均表现为抑制效应,最大贡献率为52.95%;而产业结构效应均表现为促进效应,最大贡献率为33.85%.在研究期内,漳州市碳减排力度最大,最大净减排148.27Mt.而泉州市经济增长和产业结构效应贡献率较大,未来仍具有较大的减排空间.厦门市经济增长和产业结构效应贡献率均低于参考值,且在研究期内变动幅度较小,碳减排压力较低.研究结果深化了闽三角地区碳排放的时空格局及影响因素的科学认识,为闽三角地区及相似城市群的减排治理提供了有益借鉴.     

Development of methods for establishing nutrient criteria in lakes and reservoirs: A review

Nutrient criteria provide a scientific foundation for the comprehensive evaluation, prevention,control and management of water eutrophication. In this review, the literature was examined to systematically evaluate the benefits, drawbacks, and applications of statistical analysis,paleolimnological reconstruction, stressor-response model, and model inference approaches for nutrient criteria determination. The developments and challenges in the determination of nutrient criteria in lakes and reservoirs are presented. Reference lakes can reflect the original states of lakes, but reference sites are often unavailable. Using the paleolimnological reconstruction method, it is often difficult to reconstruct the historical nutrient conditions of shallow lakes in which the sediments are easily disturbed. The model inference approach requires sufficient data to identify the appropriate equations and characterize a waterbody or group of waterbodies, thereby increasing the difficulty of establishing nutrient criteria. The stressor-response model is a potential development direction for nutrient criteria determination, and the mechanisms of stressor-response models should be studied further. Based on studies of the relationships among water ecological criteria, eutrophication, nutrient criteria and plankton, methods for determining nutrient criteria should be closely integrated with water management requirements.     

Protection performance of bicycle helmets

IntroductionThe evaluation of head protection systems needs proper knowledge of the head impact conditions in terms of impact speed and angle, as well as a realistic estimation of brain tolerance limits. In current bicycle helmet test procedures, both of these aspects should be improved. Method: The present paper suggests a bicycle helmet evaluation methodology based on realistic impact conditions and consideration of tissue level brain injury risk, in addition to well known headform kinematic parameters. The method is then applied to a set of 32 existing helmets, leading to a total of 576 experimental impact tests followed by 576 numerical simulations of the brain response. Results: It is shown that the most critical impacts are the linear-lateral ones as well as the oblique impact leading to rotation around the vertical axis (ZRot), leading both to around 50% risks of moderate neurological injuries. Based on this test method, the study enables us to compare the protection capability of a given helmet and eventually to compare helmets via a dedicated rating system.