环境CGE模型的发展及特征分析

随着CGE模型在环境与经济政策分析领域中的应用不断拓展 ,环境CGE模型的研究和应用也逐渐走向深入。本文在简要介绍CGE模型的发展状况和主要特征之基础上 ,对环境CGE模型的发展、类别、特征及其局限性进行了较为详细的分析     

黄河包头段环境中α-HCH的迁移与残留的动态模拟

以黄河包头段作为研究区域,α-HCH作为研究对象,利用稳态假设的逸度方法,建立符合包头段污染特征的微分方程组,利用MATLAB 6.5求出该方程的稳态解和随时间变化的微分解,模拟出环境各相中稳态时各种迁移过程的年迁移量,得出年迁移量大小顺序:水体>悬浮颗粒物>沉积物>大气;该段的α-HCH主要迁移来源为水体迁移和悬浮物迁移,迁移量分别为1.68t/a和1.34t/a;稳态时α-HCH在河流环境中的残留以沉积物为最多,其残留量达38.56kg,与实测结果数量级相吻合,且在沉积物中达到稳态的时间也是最长的,约为53年。     

天津滨海新区大气预警模型体系的构建

通过对多污染物种、多空间尺度范围、多时间尺度时效的动力-化学耦合模式预报预警系统的合理构建,通过科学的后期数据处理模块,实现对大气环境质量的预警预报,以期为天津滨海新区环境管理与监督提供科学的依据。     

不同天气形势下杭州市空气污染特征个例分析

利用杭州市气象局观测资料、NCEP再分析资料和中尺度天气预报模式WRF的数值模拟结果,对杭州市2011—2012年春、夏、秋、冬4个季节各一天的污染天气进行分析;同时选取2012年夏季有利于污染物扩散的天气个例进行对比分析。结果表明,杭州市容易发生轻度污染的天气类型主要有4类:高压前部、高压底部、高压控制和高压后部;500 h Pa高空系统稳定,受西南气流影响,850 h Pa有暖平流,1 000 h Pa风速较小时,容易造成污染物的积累,发生空气污染现象。WRF模拟结果显示,当杭州市为偏北风且风速较小时,容易发生空气污染事件,当为偏南风且风速较大时,空气质量一般较好。温度层结分析发现,当近地层以及高空出现较为深厚的逆温层且低层温度层结呈现中性或者稳定时,不利于污染物的扩散,污染物容易在底层积累,出现近地层空气污染现象。     

Cost-Effective Control of Ground-Level Ozone Pollution in and around Beijing

Ground level ozone pollution has become a significant air pollution problem in Beijing. Because of the complex way in which ozone is formed, it is difficult for policy makers to identify optimal control options on a cost-effective basis. This paper identi-fies and assesses a range of options for addressing this problem. We apply the Ambient Least Cost Model and compare the eco-nomic costs of control options, then recommend the most effective sequence to realize pollution control at the lowest cost. The study finds that installing of Stage II gasoline vapor recovery system at Beijing’s 1446 gasoline stations would be the most cost-effective option. Overall, options to reduce ozone pollution by cutting ve-hicular emissions are much more cost-effective than options to "clean up" coal-fired power plants.     

Just Turn on the Faucet: A Content Analysis of PSAs About the Global Water Crisis on YouTube

Water is essential for human life, yet safe drinking water is a limited resource. Critical to fighting the global water crisis are public awareness campaigns, including Public Service Announcements (PSAs). While YouTube has become a popular medium for disseminating prosocial content such as PSAs, environmental communication efforts on this platform remain largely uninvestigated. This study examines the content and characteristics of global water crisis PSAs on YouTube by applying two communication models: the Extended Parallel Process Model, and the Elaboration Likelihood Model. These models are used to evaluate the potential effectiveness of the PSAs. Content analysis reveals that threat messages often outweigh efficacy messages in the videos, central route processing cues are more prevalent than peripheral route cues, and a focus on quality or quantity issues differed by sponsoring organization (non-profit, for-profit, government). Implications and avenues for potential future research are discussed.     

Linking empirical estimates of body burden of environmental chemicals and wellness using NHANES data

Biomonitoring of industrial chemicals in human tissues and fluids has shown that all people carry a “body burden” of synthetic chemicals. Although measurement of an environmental chemical in a person's tissues/fluids is an indication of exposure, it does not necessarily mean the exposure concentration is sufficient to cause an adverse effect. Since humans are exposed to multiple chemicals, there may be a combination effect (e.g., additive, synergistic) associated with low-level exposures to multiple classes of contaminants, which may impact a variety of organ systems. The objective of this research is to link measures of body burden of environmental chemicals and a “holistic” measure of wellness. The approach is demonstrated using biomonitoring data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). Forty-two chemicals were selected for analysis based on their detection levels. Six biological pathway-specific indices were evaluated using groups of chemicals associated with each pathway. Five of the six pathways were negatively associated with wellness. Three non-zero interaction terms were detected which may provide empirical evidence of crosstalk across pathways. The approach identified five of the 42 chemicals from a variety of classes (metals, pesticides, furans, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) as accounting for 71% of the weight linking body burden to wellness. Significant interactions were detected indicating the effect of smoking is exacerbated by body burden of environmental chemicals. Use of a holistic index on both sides of the exposure-health equation is a novel and promising empirical “systems biology” approach to risk evaluation of complex environmental exposures.     

城市大气污染物总量测试研究

开展空气环境容量测算研究,对于大气污染物总量管理从目标总量控制向容量总量控制转变具有决定性意义,能有效的提高污染控制的效果和实现环境质量达标。     

人工湿地中污染物去除的数学模型

讨论了人工湿地三种常用的数学模型(衰减方程、一级动力学模型和生态动力学模型),并对其研究历史、发展应用、理论基础、基本形式、建立方法,及其各自的优缺点做了分析。从中可以看出,人们对人工湿地去除污染物的内在机制尚缺乏定量化的了解,目前还很难对其的设计、运行和预测做出准确的评价,因此影响了这一高效低耗的生态污水处理技术的推广和应用,而人工湿地生态动力学模型的不断完善可以从根本上解决这一问题。     

可持续发展的理论与宏观调控模式

从可持续发展观和可持续发展战略出发,分析了传统发展观和发展模式的特点及其主要弊端;进而根据有关国际性文件中的可持续发展概念,给出了中国人易于理解的描述及其基本内涵,强调了人与自然和谐、发展与资源环境相协调是可持续发展的核心,并结合实例阐明了协同学理论是可持续发展的基本理论依据;在分析发展与资源环境相协调的基础条件之后,重点论述了它们之间的协调机制,提出了可持续发展的宏观调控模式。