基于灰色模糊集理论的船舶搁浅概率分析

为深入分析船舶搁浅概率,在随机性和模糊性的基础上,考虑了系统的灰色性,建立灰色模糊集,模部为正态模糊数,灰部以系统的灰度熵来表示。建立了船舶航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅的事件树,构造了船舶搁浅概率的灰色模糊隶属度函数,根据各基本事件的失效概率来分析因航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅事故的灰色模糊概率分布情况。结果表明,与经典概率论和模糊概率相比,采用灰色模糊概率更能全面地反映船舶搁浅概率的可能性与不确定性。并采用RRW法和RAW法对基本事件的重要度进行了分析,找出了事故主要诱因及对降低事故风险价值最大的基本事件。     

Estimated Injury Risk for Specific Injuries and Body Regions in Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Objective: Injury risk curves estimate motor vehicle crash (MVC) occupant injury risk from vehicle, crash, and/or occupant factors. Many vehicles are equipped with event data recorders (EDRs) that collect data including the crash speed and restraint status during a MVC. This study's goal was to use regulation-required data elements for EDRs to compute occupant injury risk for (1) specific injuries and (2) specific body regions in frontal MVCs from weighted NASS-CDS data.

Methods: Logistic regression analysis of NASS-CDS single-impact frontal MVCs involving front seat occupants with frontal airbag deployment was used to produce 23 risk curves for specific injuries and 17 risk curves for Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ to 5+ body region injuries. Risk curves were produced for the following body regions: head and thorax (AIS 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+), face (AIS 2+), abdomen, spine, upper extremity, and lower extremity (AIS 2+, 3+). Injury risk with 95% confidence intervals was estimated for 15–105 km/h longitudinal delta-Vs and belt status was adjusted for as a covariate.

Results: Overall, belted occupants had lower estimated risks compared to unbelted occupants and the risk of injury increased as longitudinal delta-V increased. Belt status was a significant predictor for 13 specific injuries and all body region injuries with the exception of AIS 2+ and 3+ spine injuries. Specific injuries and body region injuries that occurred more frequently in NASS-CDS also tended to carry higher risks when evaluated at a 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V. In the belted population, injury risks that ranked in the top 33% included 4 upper extremity fractures (ulna, radius, clavicle, carpus/metacarpus), 2 lower extremity fractures (fibula, metatarsal/tarsal), and a knee sprain (2.4–4.6% risk). Unbelted injury risks ranked in the top 33% included 4 lower extremity fractures (femur, fibula, metatarsal/tarsal, patella), 2 head injuries with less than one hour or unspecified prior unconsciousness, and a lung contusion (4.6–9.9% risk). The 6 body region curves with the highest risks were for AIS 2+ lower extremity, upper extremity, thorax, and head injury and AIS 3+ lower extremity and thorax injury (15.9–43.8% risk).

Conclusions: These injury risk curves can be implemented into advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) algorithms that utilize vehicle EDR measurements to predict occupant injury immediately following a MVC. Through integration with AACN, these injury risk curves can provide emergency medical services (EMS) and other patient care providers with information on suspected occupant injuries to improve injury detection and patient triage.     

基于可靠性理论的事件树分析方法研究

事件树分析过程中事件树的编制和分析方法缺乏系统性,导致实际运用中事件树的编制缺乏可操作性。从目标系统的选择、环节事件逻辑关系的确定、定量分析中基本数据的来源和确定方法等三个问题进行了系统研究,并以可靠性的相关理论为基础,提出"从控制和影响初始事件发展演化的角度,调查分析对初始事件做出响应的安全功能,按系统工作原理对目标系统进行重构,构建目标系统的功能结构图,画出系统的可靠性框图"入手,对"传统的事件树绘制程序"进行修正,解决了事件树分析过程中目标系统的选择、环节事件逻辑关系的确定以及定量分析基本数据的确定方法等问题。修正后的方案对实现事件树的正确编制和系统分析逻辑更清晰,操作指导性更强。     

基于BP神经网络优化制备Cu-Ce/TiO_2及其光催化活性研究

采用Cu和Ce对TiO2进行改性,基于正交实验设计和BP神经网络研究了Cu-Ce/TiO2中Cu-Ce对TiO2的摩尔百分数、Cu-Ce/TiO2中CuCe摩尔比及Cu-Ce/TiO2烧结温度对Cu-Ce/TiO2光催化降解甲醛溶液性能的影响.同时,对Cu-Ce/TiO2制备方案进行了优化,并运用X射线衍射仪、扫描电子显微镜和紫外-可见分光光度计对最佳条件下制备的Cu-Ce/TiO2进行表征.结果表明,优化的制备条件为Cu-Ce/TiO2中Cu-Ce对TiO2的摩尔百分数为2.88%,Cu-Ce/TiO2中Cu-Ce的摩尔比为1∶1,Cu-Ce/TiO2的烧结温度为570℃.共掺杂Cu离子和Ce离子能有效避免掺杂TiO2晶格内部表层和近表层产生较多的位错,从而抑制晶格畸变增大;诱导TiO2中锐钛矿型晶体向金红石型晶体转变的能力增强,有效抑制电子-空穴对的复合,产生介电局域效应.     

Interspecific and intraspecific identification of Dendrobium based on the psbAtrnH intergenic region sequences and the 5S rRNA gene spacer sequences北大核心CSCD

This research aimed to investigate the interspecific and intraspecific identification of Dendrobium by using the multi-locus method so as to provide a molecular basis for Dendrobium identification through the combination of chloroplast psbA-trnH intergenic region sequences and ribosome 5S rRNA gene spacer sequences. PCR direct sequencing was applied to detect the chloroplast psbA-trnH intergenic region sequences as well as the ribosome 5S rRNA gene spacer sequences of 12 Dendrobium species, while the psbA-trnH intergenic region sequences of Dendrobium denneanum dq-2 variety and dq- 5line were cloned and sequenced for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analyzing. The sequences were analyzed by the software Sequencher4.14, Bioedit7.0, MEGA5.2 and Dansp5.0; the interspecific and intraspecific Kimara-2-Parameter(K2P) distances were also calculated. The phylogenetic tree (using Neighbor joining method) was constructed with Bulbophyllum odoratissimum and Bletilla striata as outgroup. The results showed an average length of chloroplast psbA-trnH gene sequences in Dendrobium as 742.3 bp, with 72 variable sites, including 33 information sites; the average length of the ribosome 5S rRNA gene spacer sequences in Dendrobium was 336.4 bp, with 213 variable sites including 139 information sites. Using psbAtrnH intergenic region sequences in combination with ribosome 5S rRNA gene spacer sequences can not only identify D. denneanum, D. hancockil, D. thysiflorum, D. devonianum, D. moniliforme, D. chrysotoxum, D. officinale, D. heterocarpum and D. nobile, but also differentiate D. officinale from different geographical populations, and distinguish the dq-2 variety and dq 5line with SNP in the multi locus of D. denneanum.     

Hg0 removal from flue gas over different zeolites modified by FeCl3

The elemental mercury removal abilities of three different zeolites (NaA, NaX, HZSM-5) impregnated with iron (III) chloride were studied on alab-scale fixed-bed reactor. X-ray diffraction, nitrogen adsorption porosimetry, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and temperature programmed desorption (TPD) analy-ses were used to investigate the physicochemical properties. Results indicated that the pore structure and active chloride species on the surface of the samples are the key factors for physisorption and oxidation of Hg⁰, respectively. Relatively high surface area and micropore volume are beneficial to efficient mercury adsorption. The active Cl species generated on the surface of the samples were effective oxidants able to convert elemental mercury (Hg⁰) into oxidized mercury (Hg²⁺). The crystallization of NaCl due to the ion exchange effect during the impregnation of NaA and NaX reduced the number of active Cl species on the surface, and restricted the physisorption of Hg⁰. Therefore, the Hg⁰ removal efficiencies of the samples were inhibited. The TPD analysis revealed that the species of mercury on the surface of FeCl₃-HZSM-5 was mainly in the form of mercuric chloride(HgCl₂), while on FeCl₃-NaX and FeCl₃-NaA it was mainly mercuri coxide(HgO).     

BP 神经网络模型在环境气象灾害预测中的应用研究--以湖南省为例

依据环境气象数据与自然灾害统计数据,建立BP神经网络模型,对湖南主要气象灾害（洪灾、旱灾、冰冻灾）及受灾经济损失进行实例预测,将在MATLAB7软件中的仿真结果与传统的多元线性回归模型分析结果进行比较和误差分析。结果表明,BP神经网络模型在洪灾、旱灾受灾率方面的预测效果和精度优于多元回归模型,而由于冰灾训练样本不足及经济损失与输入因子的线性相关程度高,在冰灾与受灾经济损失率方面稍逊于多元回归模型。     

基于BP神经网络的矿车运行时矿井摩擦阻力的预测*

为了快速有效地确定矿车等运输设备在巷道内运行时矿井摩擦阻力的变化情况,克服模拟软件计算量和现场实测工作量大的问题,以巷道风流速度、矿车运行速度、阻塞比、矿车长度4个矿车运行时巷道摩擦阻力的影响因素作为切入点,采用动网格技术模拟得到矿车在巷道内运行时有关矿井摩擦阻力的数据,以此为样本构建基于BP神经网络的矿井摩擦阻力预测模型,运用MATLAB软件进行网络训练,并将BP神经网络预测值与FLUENT模拟值进行对比。研究结果表明:BP神经网络结构比较简单,能以较快速度收敛,预测值与模拟值最大误差在7%以内,该神经网络模型用于求解矿车等运输设备在巷道内运行时摩擦阻力的变化情况是可行的。     

代森锰及其代谢物的神经毒性影响与机制研究

以SH-SY5Y和PC12细胞为实验模型,深入探讨了代森锰(Maneb)及其代谢产物对多巴胺能神经细胞的毒性影响与机制.结果表明,Maneb的有机部分和金属离子成分单独暴露不具有明显的毒性作用,联合暴露具有协同效应,且对细胞活性的抑制程度与同一浓度水平的Maneb相当,其原因与诱导活性氧自由基生成、细胞凋亡相关.此外,蛋白免疫印迹法发现,Maneb下调Bcl-2的表达、上调Bax、细胞色素C的水平,同时激活Caspase-3,提示线粒体凋亡途径在Maneb诱导多巴胺能神经细胞凋亡过程中的重要作用.     

基于BP神经网络的天线识别

本文比较研究了BP神经网络中的几种常用算法,针对这些不同算法下的BP神经网络进行训练,并得出了各自网络的性能。在此基础上,针对经典BP算法和LM算法进行对比研究,找到LM算法的改进之处。此外,在实际的应用中表明,不仅不同的BP算法对网络的运算速度、泛化能力等有较大的影响,而且BP神经网络对隐含层神经元数目也很敏感。我们希望在BP神经网络的基础上,构建一种合适的天线模型,来应用于天线的分类识别,这将具有很大的现实意义。