突发环境事件应急监测演习脚本的编写

简述了突发环境事件应急监测演习脚本编写的重要性及相关原则,介绍了按事故情景演变和应急监测工作响应程序两种应急监测演习脚本的编写方法。     

建筑物消防系统可靠性分析

为评估建筑物消防系统的可靠性,首先将系统分为探测报警系统和灭火系统等部分,再用事件树法分析事故发生时消防系统不同部分的反应情况.通过贝叶斯理论及历史统计数据得到系统失效率的不确定性概率分布,建立消防系统可靠性随时间变化的数学模型; 用蒙特卡罗方法模拟求得系统可靠性的时间函数并对模型的不确定性参数进行敏感性分析.该方法将统计数据与经验公式、理论方法相结合,并利用蒙特卡罗方法处理模型中的不确定性,不仅能够有效估计消防系统的可靠性,还可对其他类似系统的可靠性进行分析,并通过敏感性分析为进一步减少估计的不确定性提出合理建议.     

基于BP模型对城市交通噪声的数据处理和预测

城市交通噪声的预测和评价技术是城市交通可持续发展的重要研究内容,直接为城市交通规划中环境容量分析和环境影响评价服务。本文通过实测的大量数据,运用神经网络中的BP模型及其算法建立车辆数、道路宽度和交通噪声之间的关系,对城市道路交通噪声数据进行处理和预测。     

部分取代苯类在江水中的生物降解与结构相关性研究

测定了２７种取代苯类化合物在松花江江水中的生物降解性．采用量子化学ＭＯＰＡＣ６．０－ＡＭ１法计算了化合物的分子量(ＭＷ)、生成热(Ｈｆ)、分子总表面积(ＴＳＡ)及最高占有轨道能(ＥＨＯＭＯ),结合辛醇/水分配系数ｌｇｐ及酸解离常数ｐＫａ对其中２２种化合物的ＢＯＤ值进行多元线性回归分析,得到如下模型:ＢＯＤ＝１０５．７３－０．４３９ＭＷ－０．０７６Ｈｆ－６．６６０ｌｇＰｎ＝２２,Ｒ２＝０．８２１,ＳＥ＝８．２５０,Ｆ＝２７．５６,Ｐ＝０．０００应用所得模型对其余５个化合物的生物降解性进行了预测．只有一个化合物的相对预测误差大于２０%,为２０．８%．平均预测误差为１２．４%．     

走滑断层作用下X80管道设计应变规律和神经网络预测

走滑断层是埋地管道常见的地质灾害威胁,断层作用下管道会发生较大的拉压应变而失效。为得到X80管道的设计应变,基于有限元方法建立了走滑断层作用下管道的应变响应数值计算模型,模型使用壳单元模拟管道,非线性弹簧单元模拟土壤约束,采用西二线实际工程的管道应变影响参数范围,计算了管道的设计应变;为预测管道的设计应变值,基于以上参数化分析得到的4 817组设计应变结果,采用人工神经网络建立了管道设计应变预测模型。结果表明:该神经网络模型预测结果的最大相对误差小于10%,预测准确性良好,且该方法具有较高的计算效率,可以为断层作用下埋地管道的应变设计与评估提供参考。     

Some observations on copper yields and ore grades

The paper examines trends in the average copper content of mined ores over the years. It has tended to decline over the long term, but by no means evenly. US averages are not typical of global averages, at least in the past four decades. Those have been both higher, and less volatile than in the US. One reason for falling averages is a change in the type of deposit mined, with a rise in the share of relatively low grade porphyry deposits. The different nature of their deposits is reflected in marked differences in grades between the different continents. African and Australian average grades are higher than the global average, and changes in the share of Central Africa in global output have affected the global average grade. Yields are have been consistently lower in North America than elsewhere, and Latin American average grades have trended downwards, reflecting both the ageing of mines and the rising share of production from porphyry deposits. Typically the yield of mines declines over time as mining proceeds. The average copper content of ore deposits is usually below the average yield of the ore accessed in the early years of production. The initial grades of new mines have not declined over the past forty years, and there has been no perceptible tendency for the average grade of porphyry deposits brought into production to decline over time. There is no apparent correlation between average grade and deposit size, but mine operators tend to exploit economies of scale to offset low grades. The relationship between the annual percentage yields (the head grade) and the reserve grades of deposits is not static. In recent years head grades have fallen closer to reserve grades. The relationship may be affected by movements in metal prices. Although the evidence about the influence of prices is not clear-cut, it does suggest that prices and cut-off grades may be inversely related. As many ores contain other valuable metals besides copper, copper yields will sometimes be subordinated to the extraction of these other metals. Copper equivalent grades have not moved in the same way as copper grades alone.     

Enclave development and ‘offshore corporate social responsibility’: Implications for oil-rich sub-Saharan Africa

This paper critically reflects on the challenges of engaging, proactively, in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in oil-rich sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the region's oil production takes place in enclave-type environments offshore and in countries ruled by autocratic governments which generally exert minimal pressure on companies to embrace CSR. With companies having little sense of who to target in their local economic development policies and programs, there is always a possibility of ‘offshore CSR’ – recognized here as potentially-effective ideas for improving social welfare that linger within the enclave and never fully materialize – surfacing. The aim is to conceptualize and broaden understanding of the challenge of developing CSR programs in these settings, where there are no clear linkages to communities or local economies more generally.     

Catalytic destruction of pentachlorobenzene in simulated flue gas by a V2O5-WO3/TiO2 catalyst

Pentachlorobenzene (PeCB) in simulated flue gas was destructed by a commercial V₂O₅-WO₃/TiO₂ catalyst in this study. The effects of reaction temperature, oxygen concentration, space velocity and some co-existing pollutants on PeCB conversion were investigated. Furthermore, a possible mechanism for the oxidation of PeCB over the vanadium oxide on the catalysts was proposed. Results show that the increase of gas hourly space velocity (GHSV) and the decrease of operating temperature both resulted in the decrease of PeCB removal over the catalyst, while the effect of the oxygen content in the range of 5-20% (v/v) on PeCB conversion was negligible. PeCB decomposition could be obviously affected by the denitration reactions under the conditions because of the positive effect of NO but negative effect of NH₃. The introduction of SO₂ caused the catalyst poisoning, probably due to the sulfur-containing species formed and deposited on the catalyst surface. The PeCB molecules were first adsorbed on the catalyst surface, and then oxidized into the non-aromatic acyclic intermediates, low chlorinated aromatics and maleic anhydride.     

珠芽魔芋种子5苗接力生长当年形成商品芋技术

首次提出珠芽魔芋种子具有5苗接力生长的生物学特性。种子能在一个不间断的生长周期中积累最大生物产量,避免魔芋需反复"换头"种植3—4年才能收获商品芋的低产生长模式,使魔芋的膨大系数由块茎的低于10倍提高到种子最高约7000倍,所获地下球茎重量平均达1560g。采用种子种植当年即可获用于加工的商品芋,消除了魔芋种植过程中固有的风险,使魔芋由低产作物变成高产作物,魔芋多糖总量将实现跨越式增长。