PM2．5的污染特征及综合防治分析

大气污染严重,空气中尤以PM2.5对人健康损害最大。本文对PM2.5的来源、污染表征、国内外控制标准及综合防治措施作了基本概述,以期对读者有参考。     

三氯氢硅储罐环境风险评价事故树分析

采用事件树和故障树分析方法,对三氯氢硅储罐风险事故源进行了定量和定性分析。事件树定量分析结果为：储罐一旦发生泄漏事故,三氯氢硅泄漏事故概率为6．16×10-6,火灾、爆炸事故概率为3．08×10-6,中毒事故概率为7．61×10-7。故障树定性分析结果为：三氯氢硅蒸汽与空气混合浓度达到爆炸极限事件的结构重要度最大,其次是三氯氢硅泄漏事件,再次是点火源及罐区存在冷却水事件。通过事件树一故障树分析,探讨了储罐泄漏的事故后果及火灾、爆炸事故的主要原因,并提出了相应的防范措施。     

基于神经网络的矮塔斜拉桥近断层地震响应参数敏感性分析*

为研究近断层地震动对矮塔斜拉桥地震响应参数敏感性的影响,提出基于BP神经网络配合有限元分析的参数敏感性分析方法（FBSA法）,以某铁路矮塔斜拉桥为研究对象,进行参数化有限元建模,运用BP神经网络计算近断层地震动作用下矮塔斜拉桥响应以及自振频率对各参数的敏感性系数,分析近断层脉冲地震动对地震响应敏感性的影响规律。研究结果表明:FBSA法可快速、精确地完成敏感性分析,为抗震设计与优化提供更全面的参考;矮塔斜拉桥几何布置和截面尺寸对振型刚度影响较大;近断层脉冲地震动作用下,桥梁位移和内力响应明显增大,各设计参数对桥塔位移、桥墩位移和内力以及主梁横向位移和弯矩的参数敏感性具有显著影响,对主塔内力和主梁竖向位移参数敏感性的影响不明显。     

Prenatal diagnosis of jumping translocation involving chromosome 22 with ultrasonographic findings

We report on the prenatal diagnosis and ultrasonographic findings of a second-trimester fetus with jumping translocation involving chromosome 22. A 28-year-old gravida 2, partus 1, Turkish woman was referred for genetic counselling and ultrasonographic examination at 18 weeks' gestation because of a high risk of trisomy 21 in triple test. Prenatal ultrasonography showed tetralogy of Fallot with a diverticular dilatation of the pulmonary artery, flattened brow, complete absence of the right upper limb, hypospadias, oligodactyly (three digits) in left hand and in both feet, and hyperechogenic abdominal foci. Amniocentesis revealed a karyotype of 46,XY[4]/46,XY,−8,+ der(8),t(8;22)(q24.3;q11.21)[2]/45, XY,−22,−8,+ der(8)t(8;22)(q24.3;q11.21)[22]/45,XY,−22,−5,+ der(5)t(5;22)(q35.3;q11.21)[44]. A C-banding and FISH study with a specific centromeric probe (D14Z1/D22Z1) for chromosome 22 was made. In our case, partial monosomy for the regions 22q11.21→22pter, 8q24.3→8qter and 5q35.3→5qter may partially explain the fetal malformations. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

金华旱涝趋势统计分析

根据对旱涝自身变化及其与太阳黑子活动，厄尔尼诺事件关系的分析，，得出了金华旱涝趋势的几点认识：（1）在未来的十几年之内，金华站将从涝年占优势的阶段转入旱年占优势的阶段；（2）在太阳黑子活动22年的磁周期转变年前后，金华站3年平均年降水量明显偏多；（3）在春季型厄尔尼诺事件的当年和夏季型厄尔尼诺事件的次年，金华站年降水量偏多；（4）厄尔尼诺事件的结束时间若超过5月1日，那么次年金华站年降水量偏多；（5）厄尔尼诺事件的强度越大，对金华站年降水量的影响也越大；（6）在太阳黑子活动22年磁周期转变年前后的厄尔尼诺事件的次年，金华站年降水量明显偏多。这些认识对长期及超长期的旱涝趋势预测具有重要的现实意义。     

CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR1

ABSTRACT: In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.     

Incorporating fragmentation and non‐native species into distribution models to inform fluvial fish conservation

Fluvial fishes face increased imperilment from anthropogenic activities, but the specific factors contributing most to range declines are often poorly understood. For example, the range of the fluvial‐specialist shoal bass (Micropterus cataractae) continues to decrease, yet how perceived threats have contributed to range loss is largely unknown. We used species distribution models to determine which factors contributed most to shoal bass range loss. We estimated a potential distribution based on natural abiotic factors and a series of currently occupied distributions that incorporated variables characterizing land cover, non‐native species, and river fragmentation intensity (no fragmentation, dams only, and dams and large impoundments). We allowed interspecific relationships between non‐native congeners and shoal bass to vary across fragmentation intensities. Results from the potential distribution model estimated shoal bass presence throughout much of their native basin, whereas models of currently occupied distribution showed that range loss increased as fragmentation intensified. Response curves from models of currently occupied distribution indicated a potential interaction between fragmentation intensity and the relationship between shoal bass and non‐native congeners, wherein non‐natives may be favored at the highest fragmentation intensity. Response curves also suggested that >100 km of interconnected, free‐flowing stream fragments were necessary to support shoal bass presence. Model evaluation, including an independent validation, suggested that models had favorable predictive and discriminative abilities. Similar approaches that use readily available, diverse, geospatial data sets may deliver insights into the biology and conservation needs of other fluvial species facing similar threats.     

Prenatal diagnosis of a lethal form of Netherton syndrome by SPINK5 mutation analysis

Netherton syndrome (NS) is a severe autosomal recessive ichthyosis with no specific treatment or prenatal diagnosis available at present. The recent identification of SPINK5, which encodes a serine protease inhibitor, as the defective gene enables DNA-based prenatal diagnosis to be carried out. Here we report the first direct molecular prenatal diagnosis of a lethal form due to a recurrent SPINK5 mutation in three consanguineous Turkish families. XmnI restriction enzyme digestion and DNA sequencing demonstrated that each deceased affected child was homozygous for mutation 153delT inherited from each parent. Analysis of fetal DNA from amniotic fluid cells in Family 1 and from a chorionic villus sampling in Family 3 showed that the fetus was heterozygous for 153delT in both cases. The pregnancies were carried to term and the newborns were unaffected. In Family 2, fetal DNA analysis from chorionic villus biopsy showed in a first pregnancy that the fetus was homozygous for 153delT. The pregnancy was terminated at 13 weeks and DNA analysis of fetal keratinocytes confirmed the prenatal prediction. In a second pregnancy in Family 2, fetal DNA analysis showed heterozygosity for 153delT, and the pregnancy was continued. Direct SPINK5 mutation analysis in families at risk for NS represents the first early, rapid and reliable method for prenatal diagnosis of this life-threatening form of ichthyosis. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prenatal diagnosis of mosaic tetrasomy 5p

We report the prenatal diagnosis of a fetus with tetrasomy 5p mosaicism resulting from a supernumerary isochromosome for the short arm of chromosome 5. The pregnancy was terminated and fetal autopsy revealed minor facial abnormalities (long philtrum, up-slanting palpebral fissures and a broad nasal bridge). Cultures were established from fetal skin, kidney, and pancreas for cytogenetic analysis; the i(5p) was observed only in the skin fibroblasts. To our knowledge, this is the fourth report of mosaic tetrasomy 5p and the first report of prenatal diagnosis of this abnormality. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.