地震复杂性成因的数值模拟

以最简单的弹簧滑块模型为理论基础,由完全确定性的动力学公式出发,采用细胞自动机技术,研究模拟地震序列时、空、强复杂性的成因。当模型中仅有非线性动力学因素时,模拟序列的时空强特征十分复杂,当引入弹性结构的不均匀性,模拟大事件的空间和强度特征明显受控于断层的不均匀性。由模拟结果推测认为地震的复杂性是由于地球的不均匀性和断层破裂的非线性动力学相互作用而引起的。     

A respirometric method to measure mineralization of polymeric materials in a matured compost environment

A respirometric method was developed to measure the mineralization of polymeric materials in a matured compost environment. For the purpose of evaluating the method, results obtained for the mineralization of glucose and cellulose are presented. The matured compost, in addition to supplied nutrients, micronutrients, and an inoculum, serves as the matrix which supports the microbial activity. Recovery of the substrate carbon in the form of carbon dioxide from the glucose and cellulose added to test vessels was 68 and 70%, respectively. A statistical evaluation of the results obtained on substrate mineralization was carried out and showed acceptable reproducibility between replicate test vessels and test runs. The testing protocol developed has the following important characteristics: (1) the test reactors are maintained at 53 °C at a high solids loading (60% moisture), which has certain characteristics that are similar to a thermophilic compost environment; (2) the test matrix providing microbial activity is derived from readily available organic materials to facilitate reproducibility of the method in different laboratories; (3) the equipment required to perform this test is relatively inexpensive; and (4) the information obtained on polymer mineralization is vital to the study and development of biodegradable polymeric materials.Guest Editor: Dr. Graham Swift, Rohm & Haas.     

EFFECT OF SIMULATED CLIMATE CHANGE ON SNOWMELT RUNOFF MODELING IN SELECTED BASINS1

ABSTRACT: The projected increase in the concentration of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely to result in a global temperature increase. This paper reports on the probable effects of a temperature increase and changes in transpiration on basin discharge in two different mountain snowmelt regions of the western United States. The hydrological effects of the climate changes are modeled with a relatively simple conceptual, semi-distributed snowmelt runoff model. Based on the model results, it may be concluded that increased air temperatures will result in a shift of snowmelt runoff to earlier in the snowmelt season. Furthermore, it is shown that it is very important to include the expected change in climate-related basin conditions resulting from the modeled temperature increase in the runoff simulation. The effect of adapting the model parameters to reflect the changed basin conditions resulted in a further shift of streamflow to April and an even more significant decrease of snowmelt runoff in June and July. If the air temperatures increase by approximately 5°C and precipitation and accumulated snow amounts remain about the same, runoff in April and May, averaged for the two basins, is expected to increase by 185 percent and 26 percent, respectively. The runoff in June and July will decrease by about 60 percent each month. Overall, the total seasonal runoff decreases by about 6 percent. If increased CO₂ concentrations further change basin conditions by reducing transpiration by the maximum amounts reported in the literature, then, combined with the 5°C temperature increase, the April, May, June, and July changes would average +230 percent, +40 percent, ?55 percent, and ?45 percent, respectively. The total seasonal runoff change would be +11 percent.     

VALIDATION OF AGNPS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS USING AN INTEGRATED AGNPS/GIS SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: The AGNPS (AGricultural NonPoint Source) model was evaluated for predicting runoff and sediment delivery from small watersheds of mild topography. Fifty sediment yield events were monitored from two watersheds and five nested subwater-sheds in East Central Illinois throughout the growing season of four years. Half of these events were used to calibrate parameters in the AGNPS model. Average calibrated parameters were used as input for the remaining events to obtain runoff and sediment yield data. These data were used to evaluate the suitability of the AGNPS model for predicting runoff and sediment yield from small, mild-sloped watersheds. An integrated AGNPS/GIS system was used to efficiently create the large number of data input changes necessary to this study. This system is one where the AGNPS model was integrated with the GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System) GIS (Geographical Information System) to develop a decision support tool to assist with management of runoff and erosion from agricultural watersheds. The integrated system assists with the development of input GIS layers to AGNPS, running the model, and interpretation of the results.     

GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM BASED NONPOINT POLLUTION MODELING1

ABSTRACT: The reauthorization of the Clean Water Act reemphasizes the need for regional scale monitoring and management of nonpoint pollution loads. The magnitude of the task will require that local governments and their consultants integrate information systems and modeling if they are to manage the massive data sets and conduct the array of simulations that will be needed to support the decision making processes. Interfacing geographic information systems (GIS) and nonpoint pollution modeling is a logical approach. The objective of the present study was to use the 37,000-acre area defined by the Kensington Quadrangle sheet in Montgomery County, Maryland, to show that GIS-supported nonpoint pollution modeling is practical and economically attractive. The purpose of the GIS is to estimate the spatial distribution of nonpoint nitrogen, phosphorous, zinc, lead, BOD, and sediment using a model developed by the Northern Virginia Planning District Commission. The system allows the user to change land uses in subareas to simulate the consequences of additional development or alternate management strategies. The tests show that in-house development of this type of special purpose GIS is a practical alternative to vendor supplied systems and that the required databases can be developed quite reasonably.     

Optimal Location and Management of Waste Disposal Facilities Affecting Ground Water Quality1

ABSTRACT: Numerical simulation of ground water solute transport is combined with linear programming to optimize waste disposal. A discretized form of the equation governing solute transport is included as a set of constraints in a linear program. Two problems are described. First, the management model is used to maximize ground water waste disposal. The model constrains disposal activities so that the quality of local ground water supplies is protected. Parametric programming is shown to be important in evaluating waste disposal tradeoffs at the various facilities. Changes in the velocity field induced by waste water injection cause a nonlinearity in the solute transport equation which is dealt with by employing an iterative procedure. The second problem is aimed at identifying all sites which are suitable for waste disposal in the subsurface. The management model is manipulated so that the optimal value of the dual variables are “unit source impact indicators.” This physical interpretation is valuable in identifying feasible disposal sites. The joint simulation and optimization approach permits the management of complex ground water systems where the aquifer is used simultaneously for waste disposal and water supply.     

RURAL RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND: AN ECONOMETRIC AND SIMULATION ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: This study proposes that demand management through pricing policies can be used in conjunction with supply management to solve water supply problems. Economic principles are shown to apply to rural residential water use. A demand function for water was developed based on cross-sectional water use data collected in Kentucky. Price was found to be a significant determinant of the quantity of water demanded. A constant price elasticity of -0.92 was found. The demand function was used in a simulation analysis to determine reservoir capacity needed to supply water needs of a rural community. The simulation revealed that price can significantly affect required reservoir storage.     

TRANSIENT WATER QUALITY MODELING IN STREAMS1

ABSTRACT. A general planning model for simulation of water quality in streams and canals is formulated and verified. The model simulates the temporal and spatial variations in conservative and nonconservative constituents. The nitrogen cycle and its interaction with other nutrients and the dissolved oxygen resources of the stream are included. A fully implicit finite difference approximation is used to solve the mass transport equations describing variations in constituent concentrations throughout the stream systems. The model is applied to the Truckee River in northern California. Results indicate the applicability of the model for assessing the impact of alternative water quality management strategies on the stream system.     

Brushland fire-management policies: A cross-impact simulation of southern California

A cross-impact simulation computer language, UW-KSIM, is presented as a potentially useful technique for assessing the consequences of resource policies. Cross-impact simulation is used to estimate trends in a set of variables that result from interactions produced from hypothesized relationships among the members of the set. This technique is illustrated with an example that simulates the likely impacts of a 20-year rotation burn policy in southern California's brushland watersheds and that compares the results to a simulated representation of the observed effects of the fire-exclusion policy. Simulated losses under the fire-exclusion policy were up to 300% higher than those produced by the rotation burn policy. Similarly, the simulated average area burned per year was reduced from 5.6% of the study area under the fire-exclusion policy to 2% of the study area under the rotation burn policy. A corresponding reduction in simulated appropriations for fighting wildfires was also demonstrated.     

RELIABILITY OF THE DESIGN STORM CONCEPT IN EVALUATING RUNOFF PEAK FLOW1

A comparative study was undertaken to evaluate peak runoff flow rates using (1) a continuous series of actual rainfall events and (2) design storms. The ILLUDAS computer model was used to simulate runoff over a catchment within the city of Montreal, Canada. A ten-year period, five-minute increment rainfall data base was used to derive peak flow frequency curves. Two types of design storms were analyzed: one derived from intensity duration frequency curves (Chicago type), the other from averaging actual rainfall patterns (Huff type). Antecedent soil moisture conditions were considered in the analyses. It was found that the probability distribution of runoff peak flow was sensitive to the choice of design storm pattern and to the antecedent soil moisture condition. A symmetrical, Chicago-type design storm with antecedent dry soil moisture produced a flow frequency curve similar to the one obtained from a series of historical rainfall events.