减排中的CDM发展分析

概述了CDM的由来,通过分析目前国际和国内CDM项目实施现状及其市场建立过程中面临的主要问题,对CDM项目发展趋势进行了展望。     

中国清洁发展机制法律制度探讨

根据《京都议定书》关于清洁发展机制(Clean Development Mechanism,CDM)的目标、设立条件、步骤和监管制度的规定,指出了中国在实施清洁发展机制中所获得的环境、社会和经济方面的巨大利益,同时,也分析了目前中国实施清洁发展机制在项目发展规模、潜在项目识别、额外行证明、CER法律权属界定、项目签发等方面存在的问题。文章结合国际社会清洁发展制度的趋势走向,预测在今后相当长的时期内清洁发展机制仍将作为全球温室气体减排的有效制度而存在,并将对CDM宗旨重新定位和完善CDM项目具体实施制度。还根据国际形势变化,对2012年后中国清洁发展机制的法律制度建设提出了具体的建议:应尽快出台一部能源基本法,使得包括清洁能源机制在内的应对气候变化的措施能够有法可依。立法中应重点确立能源可持续发展原则,具体规定CDM项目适格标准、改变传统一元所有权模式,明确CER法律权属和所有权、完善CDM项目监管制度,以限制CDM项目单纯追求经济效益的危险性、加强CDM服务行业规范,提高CER签发率。     

清洁发展机制中的额外性问题探讨

清洁发展机制(CDM)是国际社会应对全球气候变化所作努力的一个重要部分。就清洁发展机制实施中的关键问题之一——额外性问题（additionality)进行了细致的探讨。分析了额外性的基本含义，各个不同国家在这个问题上的观点，各种不同判断准则的合理性和可操作性等。提出了额外性的层次等重要概念。     

Baseline options and greenhouse gas emission reduction of clean development mechanism project in urban solid waste management

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was adopted in the Kyoto Protocol as a flexibility mechanism to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has been started with such projects as improving efficiency of individual technology. Although applying various countermeasures to urban areas has significant potentials for reducing GHGs, these countermeasures have not been proposed as CDM projects in the practical stage. A CDM project needs to be validated that it will reduce GHGs additionally compared with a baseline, that is, a predictive value of GHG emissions in the absence of the project. This study examined the introduction of solid waste incineration with electricity generation into three different cities, A, B and C. The combination of main solid waste treatment and fuel source are landfill and coal, respectively, in City A, incineration and natural gas in City B, and landfill and hydro in City C. GHG emission reductions of each city under several baseline options assumed here were evaluated. Even if the same technology is introduced, the emission reduction greatly varies according to the current condition and the future plan of the city: 1043–1406 kg CO₂/t of waste in City A, 198–580 kg CO₂/t in City B, and wide range of zero to over 1000 kg CO₂/tin City C. Baseline options also cause significant difference in the emission reduction even in the same city (City C). Incinerating solid waste after removing plastics by source separation in City B increased GHG emission reduction potential up to 730–900 kg CO₂/t, which enhances the effectiveness as a CDM project. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Project-Based Emissions Trading: The Impact of Institutional Arrangements on Cost-Effectiveness

In this paper we demonstrate that the institutionalarrangement (or: design) of Joint Implementation (JI) and the CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM) has a decisive impact on theircost-effectiveness. We illustrate our arguments by statistically analyzing thecosts from 94 Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) pilot phase projects aswell as by adjusting these data on the basis of simple mathematicalformulas. These calculations explicitly take into account the institutionaldifferences between JI (sinks, no banking) and the CDM (banking, no sinks)under the Kyoto Protocol and also show the possible effects on credit costsof alternative design options. However, our numerical illustrations shouldbe viewed with caution, because AIJ is only to a limited extentrepresentative of potential future JI and CDM projects and because creditcosts are not credit prices. Some of the main figures found in this study are:an average cost figure per unit of emission reduction for AIJ projects of 46dollar per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent ($/Mg CO₂-eq), anaverage potential JI credit cost figure which is lowered to 37$/Mg CO₂-eq by introducing banking and an average of 6$/Mg CO₂-eq per credit for potential low-cost CDM projects whichincludes sinks. However, at CoP6 in November 2000 in The Hague (TheNetherlands), the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change(FCCC) did not (yet) reach consensus on the institutional details of theproject-based mechanisms, such as the possible arrangement of early JIaction or the inclusion of sinks under the CDM.     

CDM host country institution building

Contrary to earlier forecasts, the global greenhouse gas market will initially be characterised by low prices and a strong competition between the different Kyoto Mechanisms. The CDM involves higher transaction costs than the other mechanisms and has lost a considerable share of its ‘early start’ advantage due to the continuous delays in defining the CDM rules on the international level. Host countries will have to compete intensively for CDM investments. Thus the development of effective institutions is crucial to reap benefits from this market, especially if a unilateral strategy is chosen. Countries should develop approval criteria and sectoral priorities in a broad stakeholder consultation. Moreover, capacity building of local actors, information exchange as well as marketing has to be organised. Experience from several countries shows that clear competencies are crucial to get investor confidence. Long-term professional staff is also an important asset. Fights between ministries will scare off investors. The optimum institution will be a CDM Office that is independent but has full approval powers. A second-best solution is a two-tiered system. A CDM Board with representatives of ministries would define criteria and priorities whereas a CDM Secretariat would evaluate (and possibly approve) project proposals and do outreach and marketing. Small countries would preferably use the existing focal point of the UNFCCC and flexibly involve consultants if project proposalscome in. Even under an optimal institutional structure, CDM projects will only be implemented if financing and contractual issues can be resolved. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Can environmental regulation promote industrial innovation and productivity?Based on the strong and weak Porter hypothesis

This paper constructed extended CDM model to study the effects of environmental regulation on industrial innovation and productivity based on the perspective of strong and weak “Porter hypothesis”, by using 28 manufacturing industry panel data of 2003–2014. The findings reveal that: (1) the impact of environmental regulation on R&D intensity lags behind. In the long run, environmental regulation intensity has a significant role in promoting R&D investment in manufacturing industry. (2) The R&D has a significant role in promoting the substantial innovation of manufacturing industry, and has a strong lag and continuity. However, the R&D intensity has no obvious effect on strategic innovation of manufacturing industry. (3) The substantial innovation doesn’t significantly promote the economic performance of manufacturing industry, but it has a significant role in promoting the energy performance of manufacturing industry, and the substantial innovation plays a significant role in promoting environmental performance in the long term. The strategic innovation significantly promotes the economic performance of manufacturing industry, and it inhibits the energy performance and has no significant effect on environmental performance in the short term. It can promote the energy performance of manufacturing industry, but significantly inhibit environmental performance in the long term. (4) Environmental regulation has significantly suppressed the substantive innovation and strategic innovation of manufacturing industry, and the weak Porter hypothesis has not yet been supported. In the short term, environmental regulation inhibits manufacturing economic performance, but it can promote energy and environmental performance. In the long run, environmental regulation promotes the economic and energy performance of manufacturing industry, but it inhibits environmental performance. The establishment of strong Porter hypothesis has a certain scenario.     

自回归模型在井水埋深预测中的应用及改进

用时间序列分析方法建立井水埋深的预测模型时,首先采用差分的方法把季节性时间序列变成平稳时间序列,在此基础上,再用动态数据系统方法的传统F检验定阶法进行分析。由于样本的随机性可能过早地退出对模型的循环检验,从而不能找到合适的预测模型。笔者在用自回归模型建立井水预测模型的基础上,采用了一种改进的建模方法,提高了预测精度,并用实例进行了验证。     

垃圾填埋气回收利用在我国的实践

文章结合我国生活垃圾的主要特点,分析了国内垃圾填埋气体产生的特点,对填埋气体利用的参数选择提出建议;回顾了我国垃圾填埋气利用项目和政策的发展历程,分析了国内垃圾填埋气体回收利用的实践和动态;结合清洁发展机制(CDM)的实施,分析了我国开展填埋气CDM项目存在的问题和障碍,并提出了相应建议。     

中国环境治理投资对环境质量冲击的计量分析——基于VEC模型与脉冲响应函数

在低碳经济的发展如日中天的形势下,经济快速发展所诱发的环境问题引起了各界人士的广泛关注.加大对环境治理的投资已是大势所趋.“清洁发展机制”(CDM)以及“绿色信贷”(Green Credit)等新措施,为环境治理投资开辟了新路径.本文在前人研究的基础之上,基于中国统计年鉴公布的1998 - 2008年工业GDP、工业废气排放量以及工业废气治理投资额,使用单位根检验、Johansen协整检验等方法对数据进行处理,使用误差修正模型(VEC)和脉冲响应函数(IRF)对环境治理投资对环境质量的冲击路径进行模拟.得到的结论是,我国目前环境治理投资与环境质量之间存在长期的均衡关系,环境治理投资对环境质量有正向的冲击,但冲击持续的时间较短.与此同时,环境质量的变化会给环境治理投资带来长达10期的较大幅度的冲击,并且随着环境治理投资的效应逐渐显现即环境质量的改善,环境治理的投资额逐步下降.鉴于这种情形,我国政府、商业银行和企业应该加强对环境的关注,建立环境治理投资的长效机制,调整投资结构,通过各种途径加大对环境治理的投资.