中国区域能源效率发展演变趋势的R/S分形分析

改革开放以来中国能源效率不断地提高,但是在某些年份存在波动现象.采用非线性分形理论及分形分析R/S方法,科学定量地描述了中国以及各个地区能源效率的演变趋势.首先采用分形理论对1978-2008年的中国能源效率时间序列数据进行研究,结果显示,中国能源效率发展演变存在Hurst现象,具有明显的分形特征.并依照“五年计划”来划分时间序列样本为研究区间,结合“五年计划”详尽地解释说明了中国能源效率变动的原因.然后将数据扩大为样本期为1995-2008年29地区的面板数据,采用面板变系数模型进一步对各个地区的能源效率进行分析,发现除海南外其他地区的能源效率演变过程中具有明显的持续性规律,各个地区能源效率将继续保持增长.西部6个地区以及东北三省的能源效率演变趋势高于全国水平,说明“西部大开发”战略和“振兴东北”战略都已经显效.     

福州市城区内河引闽冲污后水质变化趋势及防治对策

简述了福州市城区内河河网结构特点和河网水文特征,对1994年-2003年福州城区内河的水质变化趋势进行了分析和评价。结果表明,自1998年福州市全面开始内河引水冲污工程后,内河水质得到了改善,有机污染得到缓解,基本消除了水体的黑臭现象。指出了在内河整治中存在的一些问题。提出,应优化引水方案,最大限度发挥效益;明确河段的使用功能,发挥其潜能;开展生物防治,建立良性循环的水生生态系统,对内河实施综合管理。     

我国城乡环保一体化的制度建构:理念、原则与路径

近年来,我国"城市环境趋向好转,农村环境不断恶化"这种城乡环境二元趋势的凸现,提出了城乡环保一体化的客观要求."城市中心主义"环境法制以及我国农民实质自由的严重匮乏是我国产生城乡环境二元趋势的根本原因.一些地方所采取的仅仅局限于环保领域的城乡环保一体化措施,并不能从根本上扭转城乡环境二元趋势.城乡环保一体化实践需要以更为全面的制度建构为基础.城乡环保一体化的制度建构应树立理性、人本、自由等基本理念,应坚持整体推进、科学建构、多元参与等基本原则.城乡环保一体化的制度建构路径,首先是消除对农民的各种制度性歧视,实现城乡居民的权利平等;其次,在推动地方民主与法治建设,推进司法体制改革、建立司法审查制度的基础上,健全与完善农民权利实现的保障机制,保证农民的各项权利最终成为"可实际行使"的权利.最后,还要建立适应农村环境保护要求的环境法制.     

近50年鄱阳湖五大流域降水变化特征研究

基于鄱阳湖流域在江西省内部分对应的79县市气象站1960～2006年逐日降水观测资料,采用线性回归的方法分别研究五大流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数等3要素的变化趋势,并用Mann法进行了变化趋势的显著性检验,用距平与均方差之比达到15和20作为气候异常检验指标,对各流域的各时间序列进行了异常检验,采用了Mann Kendall法对各时间序列进行突变检测。结果表明：（1）各流域的年降水量变化趋势基本一致,年降水量与年暴雨日数密切相关;饶河流域强降水事件较多,降水强度大,赣江中游流域降水时间分布相对较均匀,强降水事件较少;（2）各流域年降水量、暴雨日数总体呈波动上升趋势,20世纪90年代以来暴雨日数异常偏多的概率最大;（3）年降水日数以20世纪80年代中期为界,之前呈波动上升趋势,之后呈波动下降趋势,2002年至今各流域降雨日数明显偏少;（4）各流域的年降水量、降水日数、暴雨日数均未出现趋势性的突变;（5）近50年来鄱阳湖流域降水时间分布不均的情况加剧,旱涝灾害风险增加。     

Global trend according to estimated number of occupational accidents and fatal work-related diseases at region and country level

Background

Although occupational accidents and work-related diseases have been of interest for a long time, due to lack of proper recording and notification systems the official numbers of occupational accidents and work-related diseases are missing for many countries. Presently, the demand for effectiveness and an interest in the economic aspects of accidents have increased prevention activities at company and country levels.

Methods

Occupational accident data of selected countries and of World Health Organization regional divisions together with the global burden of disease were used in estimating global occupational accidents and fatal work-related diseases. The trend of global occupational accidents and work-related diseases is presented at region and country levels. The years 1998, 2001, and 2003 are compared in the case of occupational accidents and the years 2000 and 2002 in the case of work-related diseases.

Results

The total number of occupational accidents and fatal work-related diseases has increased, but the fatality rates per 100,000 workers have decreased. There were almost 360,000 fatal occupational accidents in 2003 and almost 2 million fatal work-related diseases in 2002. Every day more than 960,000 workers get hurt because of accidents. Each day 5,330 people die because of work-related diseases.

Conclusions

Information on occupational accidents and work-related diseases is needed so that countries may understand better the importance of occupational health and safety at country and company level. Especially companies in developing countries are not familiar with occupational safety and health. Statistical data is essential for accident prevention; it is a starting point for the safety work.     

近52a西南地区潜在蒸散发时空变化特征

潜在蒸散发对水资源评价和气候变化均具有重要意义。采用Penman-Monteith公式和气象观测资料计算了中国西南地区90个气象站的潜在蒸散发,并采用多种统计方法分析了潜在蒸散发的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)西南地区近52a的平均潜在蒸散发为3 209.8 mm,其中云南省潜在蒸散发最高(3 664.7 mm),其次为四川省(3 015.0 mm)、重庆市(2 972.4 mm)、贵州省(2 958.0 mm)。四季潜在蒸散发空间分布特征与年不同,从大到小排序为夏季,春季,秋季,冬季。(2)西南地区整体呈增加趋势(0.9 mm/10 a),其中31个站点呈减少趋势(p0.1),17个站点呈增加趋势(p0.1),其余站点变化趋势不显著。大部分站点春季(55.6%)和夏季(63.3%)呈减少趋势,秋季(62.2%)和冬季(58.9%)则呈增加趋势。(3)经MannKendall突变检验,该区整体潜在蒸散发的突变时间为1995年(p0.05);单个站点突变检验显示,76个站点发生突变,突变年份集中于1980s,未发生突变的站点主要分布于青藏高原东缘。整体上看,近52a来西南地区潜在蒸散发略呈增加趋势,并存在突变点,但部分站点存在相反的变化趋势,这和复杂的地形环境和气候特征有较大关系,体现出西南地区水文气象变化的独特性。     

Mercury levels and trends (1993-2009) in bream (Abramis brama L.) and zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) from German surface waters

Mercury concentrations have been analysed in bream (Abramis brama L.) and zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) collected at 17 freshwater sites in Germany from 1993-2009 and 1994-2009, respectively, within the German Environmental Specimen programme. Mercury concentrations in bream ranged from 21 to 881 ng g⁻¹ wet weight with lowest concentrations found at the reference site Lake Belau and highest in fish from the river Elbe and its tributaries. Statistical analysis revealed site-specific differences and significant decreasing temporal trends in mercury concentrations at most of the sampling sites. The decrease in mercury levels in bream was most pronounced in fish from the river Elbe and its tributary Mulde, while in fish from the river Saale mercury levels increased. Temporal trends seem to level off in recent years. Mercury concentrations in zebra mussels were much lower than those in bream according to their lower trophic position and varied by one order of magnitude from 4.1 to 42 ng g⁻¹ wet weight (33-336 ng g⁻¹ dry weight). For zebra mussels, trend analyses were performed for seven sampling sites at the rivers Saar and Elbe of which three showed significant downward trends. There was a significant correlation of the geometric mean concentrations in bream and zebra mussel over the entire study period at each sampling site (Pearson’s correlation coefficient = 0.892, p = 0.00002). A comparison of the concentrations in bream with the environmental quality standard (EQS) of 20 ng g⁻¹ wet weight set for mercury in biota by the EU showed that not a single result was in compliance with this limit value, not even those from the reference site. Current mercury levels in bream from German rivers exceed the EQS by a factor 4.5-20. Thus, piscivorous top predators are still at risk of secondary poisoning by mercury exposure via the food chain. It was suggested focusing monitoring of mercury in forage fish (trophic level 3 or 4) for compliance checking with the EQS for biota and considering the age dependency of mercury concentrations in fish in the monitoring strategy.     

Evaluation of the temporal variations of air quality in Taipei City, Taiwan, from 1994 to 2003

Data collected from the five air-quality monitoring stations established by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration in Taipei City from 1994 to 2003 are analyzed to assess the temporal variations of air quality. Principal component analysis (PCA) is adopted to convert the original measuring pollutants into fewer independent components through linear combinations while still retaining the majority of the variance of the original data set. Two principal components (PCs) are retained together explaining 82.73% of the total variance. PC1, which represents primary pollutants such as CO, NO(x), and SO(2), shows an obvious decrease over the last 10 years. PC2, which represents secondary pollutants such as ozone, displays a yearly increase over the time period when a reduction of primary pollutants is obvious. In order to track down the control measures put forth by the authorities, 47 days of high PM(10) concentrations caused by transboundary transport have been eliminated in analyzing the long-term trend of PM(10) in Taipei City. The temporal variations over the past 10 years show that the moderate peak in O(3) demonstrates a significant upward trend even when the local primary pollutants have been well under control. Monthly variations of PC scores demonstrate that primary pollution is significant from January to April, while ozone increases from April to August. The results of the yearly variations of PC scores show that PM(10) has gradually shifted from a strong correlation with PC1 during the early years to become more related to PC2 in recent years. This implies that after a reduction of primary pollutants, the proportion of secondary aerosols in PM(10) may increase. Thus, reducing the precursor concentrations of secondary aerosols will be an effective way to lower PM(10) concentrations.     

新疆矿区煤矿瓦斯排放现状与趋势分析

为获得新疆矿区当前生产规模对应的瓦斯排放基量,调查了研究矿区生产矿井的瓦斯排放现状.根据各矿区2004-2006年生产矿井的开采煤层、生产水平、生产规模和瓦斯排放等参数,对不同矿区和煤田进行了统计分析,计算了新疆矿区当前生产规模对应的瓦斯排放总量,同时对重点瓦斯防治矿区和一般瓦斯防治矿区进行了分类.调查结果表明,新疆矿区煤矿平均吨煤相对瓦斯涌出量由2004年的2.82m3/t增加到2006年的3.09 m3/t,呈逐年递增趋势; 新疆矿区2004-2006年的年平均瓦斯(CH4)排放量为1.05×108 m3/a;准南煤田(I)和塔北煤田(VI)的平均绝对瓦斯涌出量分别占全疆绝对瓦斯涌出总量的64.82%和15.19%,为相对瓦斯富集区,也是当前瓦斯防治的重点区域.按照矿区3年平均绝对瓦斯涌出量(大于1.00m3/min)或平均相对瓦斯涌出量(大于5m3/t)将新疆矿区分为重点瓦斯防治矿区和一般瓦斯防治矿区,并提出了瓦斯分类治理的具体建议.应用灰色系统理论,结合调查数据分别求解了新疆矿区原煤产量与绝对瓦斯涌出量的GM[1,1]预测模型.本研究为新疆煤炭资源后续规模开发过程中的相关环境决策和节能减排政策的实施提供了依据.     

城市生活垃圾处理现状、趋势及对策建议

通过对垃圾处理方法的全面对比以及对国内外垃圾处理现状和趋势分析,垃圾焚烧发电必将成为中国特别是人多地少的发达地区未来垃圾处理的主要方式.为最大程度地防止二次污染、避免环境纠纷,从完善相关法规、强化环评管理和日常监督管理等方面提出垃圾焚烧及发电项目控制污染的相关对策和建议.