中国绿色发展中的环境治理：成效评价与趋势展望

“十一五”时期,中国环境治理工作在绿色发展中的作用更加明显,环境治理成效显著增强,基本建立健全了与中国基本国情相适应的环境治理宏观战略体系、全防全控的防范体系、法规政策标准体系以及全民参与体系。但东、中、西、东北四大区域的环境治理成效存在明显差异。面对中国绿色发展的需要和日趋强化的资源环境约束,以解决影响可持续发展的突出环境问题为重点,健全完善多元主体环境治理模式,全面加强环境法律体系建设,积极探索环境治理新工具,不断推进环境治理协同联动机制,将是中国环境治理的主要方向。     

十一五期间甘南县空气变化趋势分析

运用近五年的大气监测数据分析了甘南县大气污染特征,指出了影响甘南县空气质量的主要污染物及变化趋势.     

Nonstationarity: Flood Magnification and Recurrence Reduction Factors in the United States1

Vogel, Richard M., Chad Yaindl, and Meghan Walter, 2011. Nonstationarity: Flood Magnification and Recurrence Reduction Factors in the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):464‐474. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00541.x Abstract: It may no longer be reasonable to model streamflow as a stationary process, yet nearly all existing water resource planning methods assume that historical streamflows will remain unchanged in the future. In the few instances when trends in extreme events have been considered, most recent work has focused on the influence of climate change, alone. This study takes a different approach by exploring trends in floods in watersheds which are subject to a very broad range of anthropogenic influences, not limited to climate change. A simple statistical model is developed which can both mimic observed flood trends as well as the frequency of floods in a nonstationary world. This model is used to explore a range of flood planning issues in a nonstationary world. A decadal flood magnification factor is defined as the ratio of the T‐year flood in a decade to the T‐year flood today. Using historical flood data across the United States we obtain flood magnification factors in excess of 2‐5 for many regions of the United States, particularly those regions with higher population densities. Similarly, we compute recurrence reduction factors which indicate that what is now considered the 100‐year flood, may become much more common in many watersheds. Nonstationarity in floods can result from a variety of anthropogenic processes including changes in land use, climate, and water use, with likely interactions among those processes making it very difficult to attribute trends to a particular cause.     

我国废弃资源和废旧材料回收加工业发展探讨

近年来,作为我国工业经济的一支新军—废弃资源和废旧材料回收加工业正在持续快速发展,私营工业企业是该行业的主力军。《循环经济促进法》和相关政策法规的进一步实施,为该行业注入了新的生机活力,加快自主创新,提高资源综合利用水平,是该行业发展的主流。     

“十一五”期间新疆湖库水质变化趋势及原因分析

通过对新疆湖库“十一五”期间水质变化趋势的分析,结合五年间地方政府采取的综合污染防治措施,分析了水质变化的原因,并提出相应对策建议,以便更好地推进新疆湖库水污染防治工作。     

2014年上半年再生资源主要品种市场分析

分析了2014年上半年再生资源主要品种的市场行情及存在的问题.指出目前制约再生资源行业发展的3个主要共性问题,并对再生资源行业发展趋势进行预测和展望.     

Development of a method to predict crash risk using trend analysis of driver behavior changes over time

Objective: This study aimed at identifying and predicting in advance the point in time with a high risk of a virtual accident before a virtual accident actually occurs using the change of behavioral measures and subjective rating on drowsiness over time and the trend analysis of each behavioral measure.

Methods: Behavioral measures such as neck bending angle and tracking error in steering maneuvering during the simulated driving task were recorded under the low arousal condition of all participants who stayed up all night without sleeping. The trend analysis of each evaluation measure was conducted using a single regression model where time and each measure of drowsiness corresponded to an independent variable and a dependent variable, respectively. Applying the trend analysis technique to the experimental data, we proposed a method to predict in advance the point in time with a high risk of a virtual accident (in a real-world driving environment, this corresponds to a crash) before the point in time when the participant would have encountered a crucial accident if he or she continued driving a vehicle (we call this the point in time of a virtual accident).

Results: On the basis of applying the proposed trend analysis method to behavioral measures, we found that the proposed approach could predict in advance the point in time with a high risk of a virtual accident before the point in time of a virtual accident.

Conclusion: The proposed method is a promising technique for predicting in advance the time zone with potentially high risk (probability) of being involved in an accident due to drowsy driving and for warning drivers of such a drowsy and risky state.     

淮安市区空气质量评价及趋势分析

根据淮安市区2007年实测空气质量日报资料,用空气污染指数法,对淮安市区空气质量进行评价;并用秩相关系数检验法作污染趋势分析。结果表明,2007年淮安市区的空气质量类别为Ⅱ级,空气质量状况为良好,监测点富华服装公司的空气质量最差,监测点淮阴区监测站的空气质量最好;一年中以8月份的空气质量最好,1月份的空气质量最差;污染物SO2及NO2浓度随时间变化趋势明显,而PM10的浓度随时间变化趋势不显著。     

气候变化下21世纪上海长江口地区降水变化趋势分析

近百年来,以全球变暖为主要特征的气候与环境发生了重大变化,在此条件下,气候变化对自然生态系统的影响越来越大,特别是对水资源的负面影响尤为明显,包括水资源数量、质量及其时空分布,水资源开发利用程度,供用水结构以及产水、供水、用水、耗水、排水之间的关系等。上海长江口地区是我国经济发展核心区,而南水北调东线工程实施后,长江口的流量,以及海水的入侵都会直接影响到上海的发展,因此未来百年该区域的降水量在气候变化影响下的变化趋势对区域发展有着一定的影响作用。利用IPCC 数据分发中心提供的CCCma模式的4种模拟结果,分析了在全球气候变化下,由于人类活动影响、温室气体增加等共同作用时,长江口地区未来50～100年的降水量变化情景。结果表明,降水量总的会呈现上升趋势,并且降水强度的变化也越来越明显。     

Multiscale Analysis of Hydrology in a Mountaintop Mine‐Impacted Watershed

In the Appalachian region of the eastern United States, mountaintop removal mining (MTM) is a dominant driver of land‐cover change, impacting 6.8% of the largely forested 4.86 million ha coal fields region. Recent catastrophic flooding and documented biological impairment downstream of MTM has drawn sharp criticism to this practice. Despite its extent, scale, and use since the 1970s, the impact of MTM on hydrology is poorly understood. Therefore, the goal of this study was a multiscale evaluation to establish the nature of hydrologic impacts associated with MTM. To quantify the extent of MTM, land‐cover change over the lifetime of this practice is estimated for a mesoscale watershed in southern West Virginia. To assess hydrologic impacts, we conducted long‐term trend analyses to evaluate for systematic changes in hydrology at the mesoscale, and conducted hydrometric and response time modeling to characterize storm‐scale responses of a MTM‐impacted headwater catchment. Results show a general trend in the conversion of forests to mines, and significant decreases in maximum streamflow and variability, and increases in base‐flow ratio attributed to valley fills and deep mine drainage. Decreases in variability are shown across spatial and temporal scales having important implications for water quantity and quality. However, considerable research is necessary to understand how MTM impacts hydrology. In an effort to inform future research, we identify existing knowledge gaps and limitations of our study.