Using the bootstrap with two-phase adaptive stratified samples from multiple populations at multiple locations

Recently the two-phase adaptive stratified sampling design proposed by Francis (1984) has been extended by Manly et al. (2002) for situations where several biological populations are sampled simultaneously, and where this is done at several different geographical locations in order to estimate population totals or means. The method uses the results from a first phase sample to decide how best to allocate a second phase sample to locations and strata, in order to maximise a criterion (based on estimated coefficients of variation) that measures the accuracy of estimation for population totals, for all variables at all locations. One potential problem with this method is bias in the estimators of the population totals and means. In this paper bootstrapping is considered as a means of overcoming these biases. It is shown using model populations of Pacific walrus and shellfish, based on real data, that bootstrapping is a useful tool for removing about half of the bias. This is also confirmed from some simulations using artificial data.     

Sex, intimidation and severed limbs: the effect of simulated predator attack and limb autotomy on calling and emergence behaviour in the field cricket Gryllus bimaculatus

Crickets can autotomize a limb in order to evade predation; however, this autotomy compromises their escape speed and, therefore, their ability to avoid subsequent predation events. We recorded two measures of predator-avoidance behaviour in field crickets (Gryllus bimaculatus) exposed to varying levels of predation threat, with the most extreme level leading to autotomy of a limb. Our first measure of caution was time to emergence from cover, which was affected by perceived predation treatment, with both autotomized males and females being significantly more cautious than intact individuals. For males (but not females), the presence of a calling conspecific encouraged earlier emergence. Our second measure of caution was alteration of male calling behaviour. Autotomized males remained silent for significantly longer time after disturbance than intact males, but there was no difference in call rate once they had resumed calling, suggesting that behavioural changes were not merely a result of injury response but a controlled modification of behaviour as a result of autotomy. These data suggest that autotomy in field crickets results in altered calling behaviour, which was not significantly altered with different acoustic environments.     

苏打盐碱土地区水田水盐运移模拟与预测研究

井灌种稻虽然是近年来松嫩平原西部土地苏打盐碱化治理的有效途径,但苏打盐碱地种稻改良对土壤盐分状况的长期影响,却缺乏定量化评价。作者选择该区代表性地点,通过田间观测与建立模型相结合的方法,对现有种植条件下的水田盐分动态变化进行了模拟和检验。研究发现,经过一定开垦年限土壤剖面平均含盐量下降到1.5g·kg-1左右后,在降水量正常的条件下,土壤盐分已基本达到平衡,不再随着开垦年限增加而进一步下降。相反,如遇干旱年份土壤盐分还会略有增加。需要进一步采取增加排水次数、改善土壤通透性等其它技术措施,才能使苏打盐碱地种稻改良达到更加理想的效果。     

上海市松江镇饮用水水源区的保护与环境管理方案

保护集镇饮用水河流是当前水污染防治工作的重点。本文通过现状分析，针对城乡结合部河流以面源为主的特点，找出影响饮用水河流水质的主要污染源及污水排放特征．用系统分析方法，将集镇的经济、人口、环境统计资料作为环境管理模型的主要输入信息，经计算机仿真，得出保护水源水质应采取的对策与治理方案。     

Resampling from stochastic simulations

To model the uncertainty of an estimate of a global property, the estimation process is repeated on multiple simulated fields, with the same sampling strategy and estimation algorithm. As opposed to conventional bootstrap, this resampling scheme allows for spatially correlated data and the common situation of preferential and biased sampling. The practice of this technique is developed on a large data set where the reference sampling distributions are available. Comparison of the resampled distributions to that reference shows the probability intervals obtained by resampling to be reasonably accurate and conservative, provided the original and actual sample has been corrected for the major biases induced by preferential sampling.Andre G. Journel is a Professor of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University with a joint appointment in the Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences. He is, also, Director of the Stanford Center for Reservoir Forecasting. Professor Journel has pioneered applications of geostatistical techniques in the mining/petroleum industry and extended his expertise to environmental applications and repository site characterization. Most notably, he developed the concept of non-parametric geostatistics and stochastic imaging with application to modeling uncertainty in reservoir/site characterization. Although the research described in this article has been supported by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under Cooperative Agreement CR819407, it has not been subjected to Agency review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

Allopatric differentiation in the acoustic communication of a weakly electric fish from southern Africa, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Marcusenius macrolepidotus</Emphasis> (Mormyridae,Teleostei)

A few species of the weakly electric snoutfish, the African freshwater family Mormyridae, have been reported to vocalise. However, allopatric populations of a single species were never compared. Members of three allopatric Marcusenius macrolepidotus populations, originating from the Upper Zambezi River in Namibia, the Buzi River (Mozambique), and the Incomati River system in South Africa, vocalised with pulsatile growl- and tonal hoot sounds in dyadic confrontation experiments. A high rate of growling accompanied territorial and agonistic interactions and also non-threatening interactions between males and females, which in one pair appeared to be courtship. Growl sound characteristics of M. macrolepidotus from the Incomati system differed from those of the Upper Zambezi in a significantly higher frequency of the first harmonic (mean, 355 Hz vs 266 Hz). The two vocalising males from the Buzi River generated growls about twice as long as the other fish. Furthermore, the growl pulse period was about 4 ms in M. macrolepidotus from the Upper Zambezi River and from the Incomati system, but 6 ms in M. macrolepidotus from the Buzi River. Hoots were only observed in agonistic encounters. Hoot oscillograms showed a sinusoidal waveform, and the mean duration of this sound was similar in Incomati system fish (mean, 161 ms), Upper Zambezi fish (172 ms) and Buzi fish (103 and 145 ms for the two vocalising individuals). The mean frequency of the first hoot harmonic was higher in Incomati system fish (326 Hz) than in Upper Zambezi fish (245 Hz). Both growl and hoot occurred only in the presence of conspecifics, probably signalling the presence and condition of an opponent, territory owner or potential mate. This is the first evidence for (1) sound production and acoustical communication in another species and genus, M. macrolepidotus, from southern Africa to be (2) geographically differentiated.     

计算机辅助确定外因火灾位置方法

系统介绍用计算机辅助确定矿井外因火灾位置方法的原理,给出该方法的具体步骤,剖析其定性分析、定量分析和定量分析结果评价三大步骤中的各技术关键,并借助一个实例验证了该方法实用的可行性     

中国东部季风区末次冰期以来古气候模拟

通过对我国东部季风区现代青土样品孢粉组合与气候因子间的回归分析,分别建立了孢粉组合与一月,七月气温和年降水量的转换函数,进而建立了本区末次冰期以来的孢粉－气候数据库,模拟末次冰期盛冰期,消冰期,全新世前北方期－北方期,大西洋期,亚北方期等五个古气候期的冬季和夏季温度场,降水场。     

WIND GENERATED WAVES IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE1

ABSTRACT: The study of wind generated waves is important because waves affect sediment resuspension in lakes. Measurements of wind velocity and wave elevation were made at three different stations in Lake Okeechobee. Significant wave heights were computed using a direct count from the recorded data, and verified by the root-mean-square value approach. The correlation between wind stress and significant wave height also was analyzed. The data revealed a strong correlation. In addition to field measurements, a Boussinesq-type wind-wave model was developed to simulate wind-generated, long-propagating waves. This model included the effects of wind stress and bottom viscous dissipation. Wave elevation and velocity field were evaluated numerically. A six-day simulation using 1996 wind data was conducted. Simulated significant wave heights were found to agree reasonably well with measured values. A predictive wind-wave model provides information about wind generated waves, which is used to compute bottom shear stresses required for sediment resuspension studies.     

ANALYSIS OF NITROGEN MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES USING EPIC1

ABSTRACT: This paper illustrates a method of using a hydrologic/water quality model to analyze alternative management practices and recommend best management practices (BMPs) to reduce nitrate-nitrogen (NO₃^--N) leaching losses. The study area for this research is Tipton, an agriculturally intensive area in southwest Oklahoma. We used Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC), a field-scale hydrologic/water quality model, to analyze alternative agricultural management practices. The model was first validated using observed data from a cotton demonstration experiment conducted in the Tipton area. Following that, EPIC was used to simulate fertilizer response curves for cotton and wheat crops under irrigated and dryland conditions. From the fertilizer response functions (N-uptake and N-leaching), we established an optimum fertilizer application rate for each crop. Individual crop performances were then simulated at optimum fertilizer application rates and crop rotations for the Tipton area, which were selected based on three criteria: (a) minimum amount of NO₃^--N leached, (b) minimum concentration of NO₃^--N leached, and (c) maximum utilization of NO₃^--M. Further we illustrate that by considering residual N from alfalfa as a credit to the following crop and crediting NO₃^--N present in the irrigation water, it is possible to reduce further NO₃^--N loss without affecting crop yield.