A new general mechanistic river model for radionuclides from single pulse fallouts which can be run by readily accessible driving variables

This paper presents a new general, process-based river model for substances such as radionuclides from single pulse fallouts. The new model has been critically tested using data from 13 European rivers contaminated by radiocesium from the Chernobyl accident. This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases; and also concentrations in sediments and fish, but the latter aspects are not discussed in this paper) at defined river sites. The model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the upstream catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow ( approximately dry land) areas and outflow ( approximately wetland) areas. The model also accounts for time-dependent fixation of substances in the catchment. The catchment area sub-model is based on a previous catchment model, which has been tested with very good results for radiocesium, radiostrontium and Ca-concentrations (from liming operations). The new river model is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, continentality, catchment area, mean annual precipitation, soil type (percentages or organic and sandy soils), fallout and month of fallout. Modelled values have been compared to independent empirical data from 10 rivers sites (91 data on radiocesium in water) covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 4000 to 180 000 km(2), precipitation from 500 to 960 mm/yr and fallout from 1700 to 660 000 Bq/m(2)). The new model predicts very well--when modelled values are compared to empirical data, the slope is perfect (1.0) and the r(2)-value is 0.90. This is good giving the fact that there are also uncertainties in the empirical data, which set a limit to the achieved predictive power, as expressed by the r(2)-value.     

化学活化法制备麻疯树果壳活性炭的实验研究

以麻疯树果壳为原料，KOH为活化剂，通过化学活化法制备活性炭。考察了反应温度、反应时间和碱炭比（KOH与麻疯树果壳炭化料的质量比）等因素对活化结果的影响，并利用N2吸附和BET等现代分析测试方法来表征活性炭的结构特征。结果表明，化学活化法制备的活性炭吸附剂性能较好，且当活化温度为850℃，活化时间为240min，碱炭比R=4时制得活性炭产品的质量最好；化学活化法制备的活性炭为微孔吸附剂，在最佳条件下得到最大的碘吸附值和比表面积分别为2218．44mg／g和1890m^2／g。     

基于数字环境模型的大庆市生态环境质量综合评价

黑龙江大庆市作为典型的资源型城市，是人地关系作用最强烈的区域之一，也是生态环境发生急剧变化且具有特色的区域。采用以栅格数据结构为主的多源空间信息，建立了评价生态环境质量的数字环境模型，生成了大庆市生态环境综合评价图。根据评价结果将生态环境质量分为4级，分级结果显示：大庆市生态环境质量以Ⅱ等和Ⅲ等为主，分别占总面积的50．14％和42．65％，而Ⅰ等和Ⅳ等则分别占总面积的2．45％和4．76％。     

长白山林区落叶松林可燃物模型及火行为状况

在长白山林区不同龄级的落叶松林处设置样地，在样地上设置小样方。采集每个小样方内的死草、活草、凋落物层、半分解层以及1hr，10hr，100hr的杂乱物和灌木，做了可燃物参数的测定。利用Rothermel模型对落叶松林可燃物的蔓延速率、单位面积的热量、火线强度、火焰长度和最大可靠风速进行了计算，得到了比较满意的结果。根据火行为状况，制定了相应的火灾扑救对策。     

Effect of transient heat transfer on ignition of solid particles

Ignition and combustion of solid particles are the issues of interest for many industrial applications. When simulating ignition and combustion of solid particles using available standard (ST) models, a number of simplifying assumptions are usually adopted, which are not always justified. For example, for calculating heat flux to particle surface, the Newton law is often applied with the heat flux proportional to the difference between the gas temperature and the mean particle temperature. However, Newton law is known to be valid only for steady-state heat transfer. Moreover, the actual heat flux is determined by the particle surface temperature rather than its mean temperature. The objective of this work is to develop a new particle-heating model with the correction factors to the Newton law taking into account transient heat transfer to a particle and nonuniform temperature distribution inside the particle. It was shown that the new particle-heating model correlates much better with detailed numerical calculations than the ST model. The transient heating effects were shown to be important for the problem of solid particle ignition in the oxidizer gas.     

火灾过程中羽流模型及其评价

总结了Zukoski(1)、Zukoski(2 )、NFPA、McCaffre和Thomas -Hinkley几种常见的羽流模型和适用条件 ,运用算例对几种常见羽流模型的羽流质量流量、保持一定冷空气高度条件下的热烟气层温度和排烟体积流量进行了对比分析。结果表明 ,在冷空气层高度 2m～ 3m时 ,各羽流模型的计算结果较为接近 ;在冷空气层高度较大时 ,小面积火源条件下Zukoski(1)、Zukoski(2 )、NFPA三个模型的计算结果较为接近 ,McCaffre模型计算的羽流质量流量最大 ,热烟气层温度最低 ,排烟体积流量最大 ;大面积火源条件下 ,McCaffre模型和Thomas -Hinkley模型相比 ,羽流质量流量大 ,热烟气层温度最低 ,排烟体积流量大。在相同房间高度和地板面积条件下 ,羽流质量流量大则热烟气的充填时间短     

Assessing the impact of CO2 emission control scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

Carbon dioxide emission reduction scenarios for Finland are compared with respect to the radiative forcing they cause (heating power due to the absorption of infrared radiation in the atmosphere). Calculations are made with the REFUGE system model using three carbon cycle models to obtain an uncertainity band for the development of the atmospheric concentration. The future emissions from the use of fossil fuels in Finland are described with three scenarios. In the reference scenario (business-as-usual), the emissions and the radiative forcing they cause would grow continuously. In the scenario of moderate emission reduction, the emissions would decrease annually by 1% from the first half of the next century. The radiative forcing would hardly decrease during the next century, however. In the scenario of strict emission reductions, the emissions are assumed to decrease annually by 3%, but the forcing would not decrease until approximately from the middle of the next century depending on the model used. Still, in the year 2100 the forcing would be considerably higher than the forcing in 1990. Due to the slow removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere by the oceans, it is difficult to reach a decreasing radiative forcing only by limiting fossil CO₂ emissions. The CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in Finland contribute to the global emissions presently by about 0.2%. The relative contribution of Finnish CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to the global forcing due to CO₂ emissions is presently somewhat less than 0.2% due to relatively smaller emissions in the past. The impact of the nonlinearity of both CO₂ removal from the atmosphere and of CO₂ absorption of infrared radiation on the results is discussed.     

系统安全评价方法分析

论述安全、安全评价及其与相关概念之间的关系。依据安全科学的原理及客观系统的安全结构组成研究安全评价模型的建模原理，对现有安全评价方法进行较全面的分析、分类，提出了安全评价方法的理想模型。     

Modeling the relationship between development and storm water and nutrient runoff

The EPA Storm Water Management Model was used to model the effects of urban and agricultural development on storm water runoff from uplands bordering a Louisiana swamp forest. Using this model, we examined the effects of changing land use patterns. By 1995 it is projected that urban land on the uplands bordering the swamp will increase by 321 percent, primarily at the expense of land currently in agriculture. Simulation results indicate that urbanization will cause storm water runoff rates to be up to 4.2 times greater in 1995 than in 1975. Nutrient runoff will increase 28 percent for nitrogen (N) and 16 percent for phosphorus (P) during the same period. The environmental effects of these changes in the receiving swamp forest are examined.     

Modeling hydrology and eutrophication in a Louisiana swamp forest ecosystem

The EPA Storm Water Management Model (1971) was used to model hydrodynamics, nutrient dynamics, and eutrophication in a Louisiana swamp forest ecosystem. The present system of canals and spoil banks in the swamp causes impoundment of swamp areas and does not optimize discharge from the swamp forest. Simulations showed that hydraulics could be managed to increase discharge rates to the lower estuary (22 percent), to increase productivity of the swamp forest (100 percent), and to decrease lake eutrophication (43 percent). This could be done by removing spoil banks in the swamp and allowing upland runoff to pass through the backswamp.