现代灾害、灾害研究与灾害学

本文系统分析现代灾害的特点；评述灾害研究及灾害学的历史与现状，预测其发展趋势；探讨灾害学的基本范畴，界定其学科体系的总体框架，对灾害研究及灾害学发展中的几个重要问题提出认识与建议。     

Systematizing the production of environmental plans: an Australian example

Environmental planning legislation in New South Wales now requires local government authorities to draw up statutory plans that take into account, among other concerns, both the biophysical and the social environmental issues within their jurisdictions. The SIRO-PLAN method of plan production provides a systematic mechanism for fulfilling this requirement. This article describes the application of the method by planning researchers over 18 months to the production of a Local Environmental Plan for a rural local government in New South Wales. The policy formulation, the purposive data collection, and the deliberate adjustment of plans in order to recognize interest group requirements were all found to be valuable features of the method, while the translation of the ultimately chosen land-use plan into the explicit regulatory controls available to the local government authority was found to require further refinement. The capacity of SIRO-PLAN to quantify the resolution of competing environmental concerns in the final plan, although of value to planning researchers, proved too arcane for traditionally trained planners.     

An evaluation of resource inventory and monitoring program used in national forest planning

The National Forest Management Act (1976) specifies that multiresource inventories be conducted to provide baseline data for development and, later, monitoring of national forest management plans. This mandate entails the most ambitious and complex resource planning effort ever attempted. In this paper we evaluate the structure and use of current inventory-monitoring programs and recommend a framework for gathering data to improve national forest planning. Current national guidelines are general and provide only basic directions to forest-level planners. Forest inventories have traditionally concentrated on timber. Although these inventories are often well designed, the questions we are now asking about forest resources have outgrown these methods. Forest management is impeded by general confusion over definitions of resources and the interactions among them. We outline a simple classification scheme that centers on identification of basic ecosystem elements that can be readily measured. Furthermore, spatial and temporal scales must be considered in the design of inventory-monitoring programs. The concept of ecological indicators is reviewed, and caution is advised in their use. Inventory-monitoring programs should be goal-directed and based on as rigorous a statistical design as possible. We also review fundamental issues of variable selection, validation, and sampling bias. We conclude by developing a flexible inventory-monitoring program that is designed to provide information on individual characteristics of the environment, rather than being based on fixed definitions of resources.     

Software tools to support incident reporting in safety-critical systems

Incident reporting systems are playing an increasingly important role in the development and maintenance of safety-critical applications. The perceived success of the FAA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) and the FDA's MedWatch has led to the establishment of similar national and international schemes. These enable individuals and groups to report their safety concerns in a confidential or anonymous manner. Unfortunately, many of these systems are becoming victims of their own success. The ASRS and MedWatch have both now received over 500,000 submissions. In consequence, the administrators of incident reporting systems increasingly rely upon software tools to support the administration of their systems. In the past, these systems have relied upon ad hoc applications of conventional database technology. However, there are several reasons why this technology is inadequate for many large-scale reporting schemes. In particular, the problems of query formation often result in poor precision and recall. This, in turn, has profound implications for safety-critical applications. Users may fail to identify similar incidents within national or international collections. These ad hoc approaches also neglect the opportunities provided by recent developments in computer assisted interviewing and in the monitoring of retrieval activities to build models of user behavior. These techniques offer a number of potential benefits. For instance, it is possible to automatically detect potential biases in the way that investigators analyze particular incidents.     

气象灾害的研究和预防是野外职业安全卫生的一个重要领域

从事野外地质勘探的职工常常处于大自然环境中。自然环境灾害(气象灾害、地质灾害等)是造成地质勘探职业伤害的重要原因之一。在诸多的环境灾害中,又以气象灾害的危害最为突出。研究和预防气象灾害,是地质勘探安全卫生工作的重要内容。如果只研究人为职业伤害(一般工业安全卫生中的主要问题),而不研究环境灾害,特别是气象灾害所造成的事故和职业病,那是舍本求末。在地质勘探安全卫生领域中,研究气象灾害及其防护技术,既是保护野外作业职工安全和健康的需要,也是拓宽安全科学外延领域的有益探讨。     

工业企业安全生产管理的规范化研究

根据安全系统工程原理,探讨和提出了一种被当地试点所证明、可行的工业企业安全生产综合、简便的规范化管理方法。把国家有关安全生产法律法规有机地贯穿于基础规范管理工作过程之中;建立了动态性管理模式;为积极引导企业的安全管理工作,由事故管理向预防性管理,从行政管理向依法管理,由传统管理向技术性管理的方向转变,并为促进现代企业形成自主经营,相互制约,依法管理安全生产的运行机制提供了新思路     

Evaluation of leachate composition by multivariate data analysis (MVDA)

Landfills generate emissions in the form of gas and leachate. The emissions are often measured within monitoring programmes. It is likely that the requirements of such monitoring programmes can be extended in the future, particularly in light of the increased interest in specific organic substances. Multivariate data analyses (MVDA) have been used to evaluate the possibility of predicting the content of specific organic substances from more common analyses. The results indicate that this is possible for a specific leachate. MVDA can also be used to reduce the number of analyses performed within existing monitoring programmes while retaining information about all the variables formerly included in the programmes.     

Evaluation of a Collaborative Model: A Case Study Analysis of Watershed Planning in theIntermountain West

Collaborative planning processes have become increasingly popular for addressing environmental planning issues, resulting in a number of conceptual models for collaboration. A model proposed by Selin and Chavez suggests that collaboration emerges from a series of antecedents and then proceeds sequentially through problem-setting, direction-setting, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation phases. This paper summarizes an empirical study to evaluate if the Selin and Chavez model encompasses the range of factors important for the establishment and operation of collaboration in watershed planning from the perspective of the planning coordinator. Analysis of three case studies of watershed based planning efforts in the Intermountain West suggests the model realistically describes some of the fundamental collaborative elements in watershed planning. Particularly important factors include the involvement of stakeholders in data collection and analysis and the establishment of measurable objectives. Informal face-to-face dialog and watershed field tours were considered critical for identifying issues and establishing trust among stakeholders. Group organizational structure also seems to play a key role in facilitating collaboration. From this analysis, suggestions for refining the model are proposed.     

事故致因理论的比较分析

本文对事故致因理论进行了总结并对其优缺点进行了介绍,对一些主要的事故致因理论进行了比较,分析了其异同,提出了各自的特点和适用条件,并对其理论发展前景进行了展望。运用事故致因理论对具体事故案例进行了分析,找出了事故原因,提出了预防措施。     

Dosing low-level ferrous iron in coagulation enhances the removal of micropollutants, chlorite and chlorate during advanced water treatment

Drinking water utilities are interested in upgrading their treatment facilities to enhance micropollutant removal and byproduct control. Pre-oxidation by chlorine dioxide (ClO₂) followed by coagulation-flocculation-sedimentation and advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) is one of the promising solutions. However, the chlorite (ClO₂^–) formed from the ClO₂ pre-oxidation stage cannot be removed by the conventional coagulation process using aluminum sulfate. ClO₂^– negatively affects the post-UV/chlorine process due to its strong radical scavenging effect, and it also enhances the formation of chlorate (ClO₃^–). In this study, dosing micromolar-level ferrous iron (Fe(II)) into aluminum-based coagulants was proposed to eliminate the ClO₂^– generated from ClO₂ pre-oxidation and benefit the post-UV/chlorine process in radical production and ClO₃^– reduction. Results showed that the addition of 52.1-µmol/L FeSO₄ effectively eliminated the ClO₂^– generated from the pre-oxidation using 1.0 mg/L (14.8 µmol/L) of ClO₂. Reduction of ClO₂^– increased the degradation rate constant of a model micropollutant (carbamazepine) by 55.0% in the post-UV/chlorine process. The enhanced degradation was verified to be attributed to the increased steady-state concentrations of HO^· and ClO^· by Fe(II) addition. Moreover, Fe(II) addition also decreased the ClO₃^– formation by 53.8% in the UV/chlorine process and its impact on the formation of chloro-organic byproducts was rather minor. The findings demonstrated a promising strategy to improve the drinking water quality and safety by adding low-level Fe(II) in coagulation in an advanced drinking water treatment train.