不同政策对农户农药施用行为的影响

农户不规范的施药行为是引发农产品质量安全风险最直接的原因,为规范农户的施药行为,政府颁布并实施了多种政策,但大多收效甚微。农户不规范的施药行为主要表现在过量使用高毒农药、施用过程中不按规定操作以及农药残留物的处理问题上,如何针对农户不同的施药行为制定相应的政策,以达到有效规范农户施药行为的效果,这是本文研究的主要目的。文章基于全国986个农户的调查数据,运用有序logistic模型,分别回归了不同政策对农户过量施用农药的行为、不遵守施药间隔期的行为以及在施药过程中不阅读标签说明的行为的影响程度,结果表明:强令禁止高毒农药、对违反农产品安全生产进行处罚以及对收购的农产品进行检测等命令控制政策对农户是否过量施用农药的行为具有较强的规范效应,但对农户在施药过程中是否阅读标签说明的规范效果不佳;农药施用技术培训、农产品安全生产宣传教育等宣传培训的政策能有效规范农户在施药前阅读标签说明,但对农户是否过量施用农药的影响不大;以市场为基础的激励政策对农户过量施用农药、阅读标签说明以及遵守间隔期均有显著的规范效果。由此提出,政府在实施命令控制政策的同时,应加强农产品安全知识的宣传力度,定期为农户提供农药施用技术培训;由于以市场为基础的激励政策能有效弥补命令控制政策的监管漏洞,从而更有效的规范农户的施药行为,因此要建立激励惩罚机制,对使用生物农药、施用有机肥等具有正外部性的投入行为进行补贴,对使用高污染、高毒农药的行为进行征税,充分发挥市场为基础的监管政策的有效性。     

“全面放开二孩”政策对中国人口出生率的冲击与趋势探讨

从"单独二孩"政策到"全面放开二孩"政策,政府针对中国人口现实情况不断做出符合社会需求的政策调整,尽管有可能缓解长期以来计划生育政策导致的适龄劳动力短缺及"未富先老"等社会问题,但人口政策调整的长期效果却有待验证。为此,本文运用灰色预测模型和Leslis模型等方法,对"全面放开二孩"生育政策背景下中国未来人口出生率的冲击和波动趋势作出预测,并对"全面放开二孩"政策所带来的对生育率及人口年龄结构影响展开分析,对2016—2050年的出生率、人口总数及人口结构作出预测,最终发现"全面放开二孩"政策会促进人口结构相对优化,但不能从根本上扭转劳动力供求关系失衡和老龄化加剧的趋势。为防止落入人口超低生育率陷阱,适度抑制老龄化快速增长趋势,实现人口与社会经济全面协调发展,必须对现行的生育政策进行完善,短期内,应积极出台配套措施,全面贯彻"全面放开二孩"政策,积极应对老龄化趋势;长期内,应逐步过渡到自主生育政策,形成人口自然生长的均衡发展长效机制。     

The influence of Chinese population policy change on resources and the environment

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China. This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population, with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future. This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population, and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model. Drawing upon the results of these two predictions, the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively. Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission, the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side. The findings are as follows: after implementing the universal two-child policy, China’s grain, energy consumption, domestic water demand, and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces. To meet the needs arising from future population growth, food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future, while relying more on imports. Stability of the water supply needs to be improved, especially in Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger. Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.     

过江通道建设对相对落后地区发展的影响——以江苏省南通市为例

苏通大桥及沪崇苏通道的建设将引致区域交通格局的演化,从而对相关地区经济社会发展产生深远影响。对于相对落后的南通市而言,快速过江通道建设既是促进发展的良好机遇,同时也将带来新的挑战和威胁：（1）交通可达性改善明显,南向联系趋于便捷,运输成本相应减小,要素集聚呈现加速态势,但优质要素面临流失威胁;（2）产业规模迅速扩张,但以低层次产业为主,进一步加大了产业层次提升的压力,同时建设用地的盲目扩张和散乱布局,使得空间开发无序风险加剧;（3）进入上海都市圈的紧密圈层,有望成为长江三角洲北翼重要的次中心城市,但面临的竞争压力也不断增大。为促进南通市的可持续发展,政府部门应在推进都市区建设、促进要素集聚、空间资源的合理和统筹利用等方面制定科学有效的区域政策。     

Australia and Russia: How do their environmental policy processes differ?

This paper focuses on comparative review and analysis of the systems of environmental protection, national environmental strategies and fundamentals of environmental legislation in Australia and the Russian Federation. These countries have many socioeconomic similarities, such as low population densities and richness in natural resources which are largely exported. The main disparity between Australia and Russia is in the types of economy. This paper ‘continues’ the sequence of recent scholarly publications on comparison of various features of environmental policies in the countries from all over the world. Comparative analysis in this research has been based on examination of scholarly publications, legislation, government documents, mass media sources and NGO responses. The analysis has revealed a number of differences including top-down implementation of policies in Russia whereas in Australia, each State (Territory) implements policies with significant independence from the Commonwealth Government. At the same time, similarities between the countries have been identified: for example, in deficits in the budget of local environmental authorities and in the presence of contradictions in legislation at national and regional levels of government. Suggestions resulting from this analysis include further integration of sustainable development strategies at all levels of Australian government to encourage further protection of the environment and, for Russia, creating a separate Ministry of Environmental Protection. These approaches should assist facilitation of sustainable development for both nations. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

The geography of conflict between elk and agricultural values in the Cypress Hills, Canada

Complex ecological issues like depredation and its management are determined by multiple factors acting at more than one scale and are interlinked with complex human social and economic behaviour. Depredation by wild herbivores can be a major obstacle to agricultural community support for wildlife conservation. For three decades, crop and fence damage, competition with livestock for native rangeland and tame pasture, and depredation of stored feed by elk (Cervus elaphus canadensis) have been the cause of conflict with agricultural producers in the Cypress Hills, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Tolerance of elk presence on private lands is low because few benefits accrue to private landowners; rather they largely perceive elk as a public resource produced at their expense. Government management actions have focused on abatement inputs (e.g., population reduction; fencing) and compensation, but incentives to alter land use patterns (crop choice and location) in response to damages have not been considered. Nor has there been information on spatial structure of the elk population that would allow targeted management actions instead of attempting to manage the entire population. In this study we analysed the spatial structure of the Cypress Hills elk population, the distribution of the elk harvest in relation to agricultural conflicts, developed models of the spatial patterns of conflict fields, and evaluated compensation patterns for damage by wild herbivores. We propose modifications to current abatement and compensation programs and discuss alternative approaches involving changes to agricultural land use patterns that may reduce the intensity of conflicts with elk, and increase the acceptance capacity of landowners.     

Balancing Conservation and Economic Sustainability: The Future of the Amazon Timber Industry

Logging has been a much maligned feature of frontier development in the Amazon. Most discussions ignore the fact that logging can be part of a renewable, environmentally benign, and broadly equitable economic activity in these remote places. We estimate there to be some 4.5 ± 1.35 billion m³ of commercial timber volume in the Brazilian Amazon today, of which 1.2 billion m³ is currently profitable to harvest, with a total potential stumpage value of $15.4 billion. A successful forest sector in the Brazilian Amazon will integrate timber harvesting on private lands and on unprotected and unsettled government lands with timber concessions on public lands. If a legal, productive, timber industry can be established outside of protected areas, it will deliver environmental benefits in synergy with those provided by the region’s network of protected areas, the latter of which we estimate to have an opportunity cost from lost timber revenues of $2.3 billion over 30 years. Indeed, on all land accessible to harvesting, the timber industry could produce an average of more than 16 million m³ per year over a 30-year harvest cycle—entirely outside of current protected areas—providing $4.8 billion in returns to landowners and generating $1.8 billion in sawnwood sales tax revenue. This level of harvest could be profitably complemented with an additional 10% from logging concessions on National Forests. This advance, however, should be realized only through widespread adoption of reduced impact logging techniques.     

Social Learning Through Evaluation: A Case Study of Overcoming Constraints for Management of Dryland Salinity

Conventional approaches to evaluation of environmental programs have tended to limit themselves to restricted measures of program effectiveness. This paper shows how a social learning approach can be incorporated into evaluating public environmental programs. A social learning approach is particularly suited to complex environmental challenges which are inherently difficult to understand, predict, and manage, thus complicating the evaluation process. The paper presents an Australian case study of dryland salinity management where there are major knowledge barriers impeding conventional management techniques. The research presented in this paper focused on evaluating a public demonstration program to track its impact through its design, implementation, and monitoring phases. The paper shows that, by incorporating social learning principles and practices, program evaluation can promote collective action, critical reflection, and increased knowledge to underpin improved environmental management.     

Long-Term Changes in Game Species Over a Long Period of Transformation in the Iberian Mediterranean Landscape

Agricultural change has transformed large areas of traditional farming landscapes, leading to important changes in the species community assemblages in most European countries. We suspect that the drastic changes in land-use that have occurred in Andalusia (southern Spain) over recent decades, may have affected the distribution and abundance of game species in this region. This article compares the distribution of the main game species in Andalusia during the 1960s and 1990s, using data from maps available from the Mainland Spanish Fish, Game and National Parks Service and from recent datasets on hunting yield distributions, respectively. Big-game and small-game species were significantly segregated in southern Spain during the 1990s, as two clearly independent chorotypes (groups of species whose abundances are similarly distributed) were obtained from the classification analysis. In contrast, big-game and small-game species were not significantly segregated several decades ago, when there was only one chorotype consisting of small-game species and wild boar. The other three ungulates did not constitute a significant chorotype, as they showed positive correlations with some species in the group mentioned above. These changes seem to be a consequence of the transformations that have occurred in the Iberian Mediterranean landscape over the last few decades. The abandoning of traditional activities, and the consequent formation of dense scrubland and woodland, has led to an expansion of big-game species, and a decrease of small-game species in mountain areas. Moreover, agricultural intensification has apparently depleted small-game species populations in some agricultural areas. On the other hand, the increasingly intensive hunting management could be artificially boosting this segregation between small-game and big-game species. Our results suggest that the conservation and regeneration of traditional agricultural landscapes (like those predominating in the 1960s) should be a priority for the conservation of small-game species.     

Characterising the landscape of state environmental review policies and procedures in the United States: a national assessment

Following the intent of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, many states have adopted policies and procedures directing state agencies and local government units to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of development projects prior to their undertaking. In contrast to a rich literature on federal requirements, current understanding of state environmental review is narrowly focused and outdated. This paper seeks to provide information on the landscape of state environmental review policy frameworks. The paper identifies 37 states with formal environmental review requirements through a document review of state statutes, administrative rules and agency-prepared materials, and confirms this finding through a survey of state administrators. A two-tier classification is used to distinguish states based on the approach taken to address environmental review needs and the scope and depth of relevant policies and procedures implemented. This paper also provides a discussion of policy and programme attributes that may contribute to effective practice, and of the potential for adopting relevant legislation in states where environmental review is currently lacking.