水文水质模型联合应用于水库水质预测研究

联合应用流域水文非点源AnnAGNPS模型和水库水质CE-QUAL-W2模型,AnnAGNPS模型输出黑河流域非点源污染负荷,将其转化为金盆水库入库浓度作为CE-QUAL-W2模型的输入,对黑河金盆水质进行预测,研究非点源污染对陕西金盆水库水质影响.结果表明,在对水库水质进行预测时,应对洪水期和非洪水期的非点源污染区别对待.非点源污染在洪水期时对金盆水库水质有较大影响,而在非洪水期时非点源污染对水库水质影响不显著.非点源污染对水库纵向和垂向水质影响存在差异性.林地对流域非点源污染削减起到很大作用.     

AnnAGNPS模型在流溪河下游流域农业非点源污染模拟应用

本文在珠江三角洲地区选取流溪河下游流域.借助GIS和RS以及相关资料率定模型参数,应用连续-分布式参数模型AnnAGNPS分别模拟了1998年、2000年和2002年三年的面源污染,并对污染负荷的空间和时间分布特征进行了分析,对于利用GIS和RS技术应用AnnAGNPS模型来计算流域面源污染提供了一种比较新的方法和思路,对我国其他地区尤其是经济较发达而环境污染问题较突出的地区研究面源污染具有重要的参考价值.     

AnnAGNPS模型数据库的建立及径流模拟应用——以桃江流域农业区为例

AnnAGNPS模型可以连续模拟和预测来自流域的地表径流、沉积物、污染负荷。借助GIS平台及1stOp(tFirst Optimization)工具,以桃江小流域农业区为例,详述了AnnAGNPS模型数据库(包括土壤、土地利用、地形、气象、作物管理、径流曲线等)相关参数的提取和确定过程;并基于已建立的数据库对桃江流域农业区的径流进行了模拟和适用性评价,采用的3个评价指标(相对误差Re<10%,效率系数Ens≥0.9,相关系数R2>0.9)均达到较高精度要求,表明AnnAGNPS模型适用于桃江流域研究区的径流模拟,反映了数据库建立的正确性。     

Application of Tabu Search Algorithm With a Coupled AnnAGNPS‐CCHE1D Model to Optimize Agricultural Land Use1

Abstract: A principal contributor to soil erosion and nonpoint source pollution, agricultural activities have a major influence on the environmental quality of a watershed. Impact of agricultural activities on the quality of water resources can be minimized by implementing suitable agriculture land‐use types. Currently, land uses are designed (location, type, and operational schedule) based on field study results, and do not involve a science‐based approach to ensure their efficiency under particular regional, climatic, geological, and economical conditions. At present, there is a real need for new methodologies that can optimize the selection, design, and operation of agricultural land uses at the watershed scale by taking into account environmental, technical, and economical considerations, based on realistic simulations of watershed response. In this respect, the present study proposes a new approach, which integrates computational modeling of watershed processes, fluvial processes in the drainage network, and modern heuristic optimization techniques to design cost effective land‐use plans. The watershed model AnnAGNPS and the channel network model CCHE1D are linked together to simulate the sediment and pollutant transport processes. Based on the computational results, a multi‐objective function is set up to minimize soil losses, nutrient yields, and total associated costs, while the production profits from agriculture are maximized. The selected iterative optimization algorithm uses adaptive Tabu Search heuristic to flip (switching from one alternative to another) land‐change variables. USDA’s Goodwin Creek experimental watershed, located in Northern Mississippi, is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed approach. The results show that the optimized land‐use design with BMPs using an integrated approach at the watershed level can provide efficient and cost‐effective conservation of the environmental quality by taking into account both productivity and profitability.     

三峡库区黑沟小流域非点源污染物输出的动态变化

农业施肥水平和耕作方式等流域管理措施影响非点源污染物的输出.选择三峡库区黑沟小流域60种管理措施组合,即5种化肥施用水平(FL1-现用量、FL2-70%现用量、FL3-推荐用量、FL4-70%推荐用量、FL5-30%推荐用量)、4类耕作方式(CT-传统耕作、NT-免中耕、CS-等高种植、RC-留茬覆盖)和3种年降雨模式...     

EVALUATION OF Ann AGNPS NITROGEN LOADING IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Pollutants entering a water system can be very destructive to the health of that system. Best Management Practices (BMPs) are used to reduce these pollutants, but understanding the most effective practices is very difficult. Watershed models are an effective tool to aid in the decision‐making process of selecting the BMPs that are most effective in reducing the pollutant loading and are also the most cost effective. The Annualized Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution model (AnnAGNPS 2.0) is a technological tool that can be used to estimate watershed response to agricultural management practices. The main purpose of this paper is to test the performance of AnnAGNPS 2.0 on nitrogen loading using comparisons with measurements from the Deep Hollow watershed of the Mississippi Delta Management Systems Evaluation Area (MDMSEA) project. Previous work has demonstrated the capability of the model to simulate runoff and sediment. From sensitivity analyses in this study, initial nitrogen concentration in the soil and crop nitrogen uptake had the most impact on the nitrogen loadings. AnnAGNPS simulations of monthly nitrogen loadings are poor. However, statistical test (t‐test) showed that the predicted nitrogen loading is not significantly different from observed nitrogen loading at the 95 percent level of confidence.     

AnnAGNPS 模型应用于辽河源头小流域的主要参数确定方法

农业非点源污染已成为辽河源头区水体污染的治理重点,农业非点源污染模型AnnAGNPS(Annualized Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution Model)模拟农业非点源污染是可行的,但模拟精度取决于模型参数.本文以辽河源头区典型小流域为例,根据集水区的划分与流域非点源污染的空间分布密切相关,以不同的临界汇水区面积CSA(the critical source area)和最小初始沟道长度MSCL(the minimum source channel length)划分出不同数量的集水区进行多次模型模拟,当多种污染源负荷均趋于稳定时确定集水区单元划分数量;针对我国土壤普查数据的土壤质地体系与建立AnnAGNPS模型的土壤质地体系不同,假设土壤累积粒径成对数正态分布,利用插值进行土壤粒径的转换,采用EPIC(Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator)模型计算土壤可蚀性因子;经多次模拟实验与野外实测数据分析,上述确定参数方法是可行的.     

AnnAGNPS模型在九龙江典型小流域的适用性检验

在中国东南丘陵山区—中尺度流域——九龙江流域选取4个土地利用方式不一的典型小流域,借助GIS和相关资料率定模型参数,并通过对2003年4月至9月各小流域出口降雨水质水量的同步监测,检验了连续－分布式参数模型（Annualized　AGricultural NonPoint Source Model,AnnAGNPS）的适用性研究结果表明,模型对于地表径流量的模拟能力好于对泥沙和营养盐的模拟,对总磷和泥沙输出的模拟结果表现出了较大的不确定性。     

DEM分辨率及子流域划分对AnnAGNPS模型模拟的影响

 针对大中尺度流域非点源污染模拟精度与运算效率的突出矛盾,选取数据精度与空间离散化2个关键影响因素,讨论数字高程模型(DEM)分辨率和临界源面积(CSA)取值对AnnAGNPS模型模拟结果的影响.分别比较了7组CSA取值及8组不同DEM分辨率对华北潮河流域大阁子流域AnnAGNPS模型参数提取及模拟结果的影响.研究发现,CSA取值对汇水单元的数量、地表径流量、泥沙以及总氮的模拟有很大的影响.随着CSA取值的增大,地表径流量变化不大;泥沙先逐渐增大,后呈减少趋势;总磷负荷的变化趋势不明显;总氮负荷呈逐渐减少的趋势.选择合适的CSA是流域AGNPS模型模拟的基础.DEM是分布式水文模型的基础数据,研究表明:DEM分辨率对坡度有较大的影响.随着DEM分辨率的降低,径流量变化不大;土壤侵蚀和总氮负荷变化却十分明显,当DEM分辨率从30m逐渐降低至60m时,泥沙输出及总氮负荷迅速减小,总磷呈现先减小后逐渐稳定的趋势,但变化幅度小于总氮和泥沙.当DEM分辨率小于60m,泥沙和总氮的输出随分辨率降低下降缓慢.以30m和50m DEM为例,通过不同精度的DEM坡度回归分析,建立了低精度DEM坡度修正的方法.用修正后的坡度进行AnnAGNPS模型模拟计算,结果表明坡度修正对泥沙、总氮、总磷的模拟有不同程度的改善.     

基于扰动分析方法的AnnAGNPS模型水文水质参数敏感性分析

参数敏感性分析对于水文水质综合模型的构建及推广应用具有重要的意义.本研究基于AnnAGNPS模型机制,选取可能对模型产生影响的地形、水文气象、田间管理、土壤等4大类31个参数,以太湖地区典型低山丘陵小流域——中田河流域为实验区,利用扰动分析方法评价了模型参数对水文水质模拟结果的敏感性.结果表明,11个地形参数中,LS对径流、泥沙与氮磷等模拟结果普遍敏感,RMN、RS和RVC对泥沙输出分别为一般敏感和弱敏感,其余参数不敏感.水文气象参数中CN对模型径流和泥沙输出特别敏感,对其余结果也都比较敏感.田间管理与植被作物肥料参数中CCC、CRM和RR对泥沙和颗粒态污染物输出弱敏感,6个肥料参数(FR、FD、FID、FOD、FIP、FOP)对氮磷营养盐输出特别敏感.土壤参数中,K对模型除径流之外的所有结果都特别敏感,土壤氮磷含量的4个参数(SONR、SINR、SOPR、SIPR)对相对应的氮磷输出结果弱敏感.通过对中田河流域2005~2010年径流量的模拟和校正检验发现,模拟期与校正期年径流量偏差基本都在10%以内,模拟精度优秀.本研究对AnnAGNPS模型构建中的参数选取与校验调整具有直接参考价值,对研究区的径流模拟结果也证明了模型敏感性分析对于调参过程的可行性和该模型在太湖地区低山丘陵流域径流模拟的适用性,对于模型在国内的推广应用具有重要的指导意义.