Rural poverty driven soil degradation under climate change: the sensitivity of the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome with respect to climate

Starting from the basic assumption of the syndrome concept that essentially all of the present problematic civilization–nature interactions on the global scale can be subdivided into a limited number of typical patterns, the analysis of the response of these patterns (syndromes) to climate change can make a major contribution to climate impact research, surmounting the difficulties of more common sectoral ceteris paribus impact studies with respect to their systemic integration. In this paper we investigate in particular the influence of climate on the regional proneness or disposition towards one of the most important syndromes with respect to famines and malnutrition, the Sahel Syndrome. It describes the closely interlinked natural and socioeconomic aspects of rural poverty driven degradation of soil and vegetation on marginal sites. Two strategies of global climate impact assessment on a spatial 0.5°×0.5° grid were pursued: (a) As a measure for the climate sensitivity of the regional proneness, the absolute value of the gradient of the disposition with respect to the global field of 3} 12 monthy normals of temperature, irradiation and precipitation is calculated. (b) The disposition was evaluated for two different climate forecasts under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration. For both strategies two new quantitative global models were incorporated in a fuzzy-logic-based algorithm for determining the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome: a neural-net-based model for plant productivity and a waterbalance model which calculates surface runoff considering vertical and lateral fluxes, both driven by the set of 36 monthly climatological normals and designed to allow very fast global numerical evaluation.Calculation (b) shows that the change in disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome crucially depends on the chosen climate forecast, indicating that the disagreement of climate forecasts is propagated to the impact assessment of the investigated socio-economic pattern. On the other hand the regions with a significant increase in disposition in at least one of the climate scenario-based model runs form a subset of the regions which are indicated by the local climate sensitivity study (a) as highly sensitive – illustrating that the gradient measure applied here provides a resonable way to calculate an upper limit or worst case of negative climate impact. This method is particularly valuable in the case of uncertain climate predictions as, e.g., for the change in precipitation patterns.     

大连地区唐氏筛查孕中期妇女羊水中甲状腺激素水平与PBDEs内暴露关系初探

多溴联苯醚(polybrominated diphenyl ethers,PBDEs)是一类常用的溴代阻燃剂,由于使用广泛,已成为普遍存在的环境污染物。研究表明,PBDEs具有内分泌干扰作用,影响甲状腺功能,对胚胎发育、婴幼儿及儿童的健康存在潜在的危害。本研究采集了100例具羊水穿刺指征的孕妇的孕中期羊水样本,采用罗氏全自动电化学发光免疫分析仪测定羊水中促甲状腺激素(TSH)、三碘甲状腺原氨酸(TT3)、游离三碘甲状腺原氨酸(FT3)、甲状腺素(TT4)、游离甲状腺素(FT4)、抗甲状腺过氧化酶抗体(TPOA)和抗甲状腺球蛋白抗体(TGA)的含量,用气相色谱-负化学源-质谱法测定羊水样品中16种PBDEs同系物含量。结果显示,羊水中TSH、TT3、FT3、TT4、FT4中位数分别为0.342μIU·m L-1、0.949 nmol·L-1、1.52 pmol·L-1、11.02 nmol·L-1和3.91pmol·L-1,95%参考区间值分别为0.174~0.872μIU·m L-1、0.835~1.01 nmol·L-1、1.26~2.72 pmol·L-1、9.42~20.68 nmol·L-1和2.16~6.35 pmol·L-1。具有唐氏筛查高风险和甲状腺激素水平低下的羊水样品中共检出6种BDEs(BDE-47、BDE-71、BDE-138、BDE-183、BDE-190、BDE-209),其中BDE-71、183和190在被检羊水样品中均被检出,并且,TSH水平低下的羊水中BDE-190和209负荷水平显著高于正常组。这些结果提示,大连地区孕中期妇女羊水存在PBEDs内暴露,并且PBDEs内暴露可能与羊水的甲状腺激素水平低下、尤其TSH水平升高有关,提示PBDEs暴露可能与胎儿中枢神经系统损伤产生的下丘脑-垂体-甲状腺(HPT)轴功能失调有关。因此,羊水PBDEs内暴露对新生儿出生结局的影响值得进一步关注。