Embedding the human factor in road tunnel risk analysis

The paper is focusing on road tunnel safety and builds upon the Directive 2004/54/EC launched by the European Commission; the latter sets basic requirements and suggests the implementation of risk assessment in several tunnel cases apart from technical measures imposed on the basis of tunnel structural and operational characteristics. Since the EU Directive does not indicate the method for performing risk assessment, a wide range of methods have been proposed, most of them based on quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Although the majority of current road tunnel QRAs assess physical aspects of the tunnel system and consider several hazards concerning the transportation of dangerous goods through a tunnel, they do not take into account, sufficiently, several organizational and human-related factors that can greatly affect the overall safety level of these critical infrastructures. To cope with this limitation this paper proposes a fuzzy logic system based on CREAM method for human reliability analysis (Hollnagel, 1998) in order to provide more sophisticated estimations of the tunnel operator's performance in safety critical situations. It is deduced that a human reliability analysis component to analyze operator performance, like the fuzzy system proposed here, is important for risk analysts. Consideration of organizational and human factors will enhance risk analysts’ studies and highlight the uncertainty related to human performance variability.     

SWOT analysis for socio-ecological landscape variation as a precursor to the management of the mountainous Kanshi watershed,Salt Range of Pakistan

Variations in geo-environmental attributes differ strongly from those of urban anthropogenic structures. Similarly, these types of structures are self-directed and arranged and prone to abrupt process-related changes and modifications. Thus, there are many reasons why planned urbanization forms in association with disturbances in ecosystem mobility. The current research highlights these variations in the context of social–cultural assessments within the Jhelum River watershed, which strongly expresses urbanization structure development mechanisms. The climate ranges from semi-arid to subhumid subtropical and sub-mountainous climate, though the extreme temperatures may rise as high as 49.4°C in June and may drop as low as ?1.6°C in January. The rainfall is low in the southwest and gradually increases towards the northeast, whereas the Salt Range is the major topographic feature that controls climatic impacts and promotes sustainable development. Cross-disciplinary methods are adopted in this investigation to assess the social–ecological landscape system (SELS) in terms of its mobility and degree of urbanization. The Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda recognize that human livelihoods and the management of natural resources cannot be addressed separately. Investing in the sustainability of mountain communities and ecosystem conservation and protection will provide benefits for humanity as a whole. It pertains to the commensurate development of the SELS and its response to interruptions. Thus, a reliable SWOT analysis for management approaches is introduced that may enable the development of competencies that promote and lead towards rapid improvements in the sustainability of retrograde urban infrastructure, including watersheds.     

污水处理系统中硝化菌的菌群结构和动态变化

研究分析了4种不同工艺类型的城市污水处理厂中氨氧化细菌(AOB)和亚硝酸盐氧化细菌(NOB)的丰度及菌群结构.实时定量PCR结果表明4种工艺中AOB菌群的丰度范围为8.56×106~4.46×107cells/gMLSS;NOB菌群的丰度为3.37×108~1.53×109cells/gMLSS.每个工艺中Nitrospira都是优势NOB,占NOB菌群的88% 以上. A2O工艺冬季AOB和Nitrospira丰度比夏季均有所降低,这是导致冬季生物脱氮效果变差的主要原因.基于 amoA基因的系统发育分析结果显示所有的序列属于Nitrosomonas,其中Nitrosomonas oligotropha cluster 占克隆文库的60.1%,是AOB 种群中的优势菌属,Nitrosomonas-like cluster和 Nitrosomonas europaea cluster次之,分别占克隆文库的29.6%和9.1%.N. europaea cluster只在A2O工艺中出现,且在A2O工艺夏季污泥样品克隆文库中达到44.7%.低DO运行使N. europaea cluster成为优势AOB是A2O工艺夏季出现较高亚硝酸盐积累率的主要原因.研究结果证实了城市污水处理厂中优势AOB和NOB分别为Nitrosomonas和Nitrospira,硝化菌群占总菌群的1%~7%,其丰度、相对含量和菌群结构是影响硝化效果的主要因素.     

Introduction to the special issue of Ecological Modelling: “Advances in Modeling Estuarine and Coastal Ecosystems: Approaches, Validation, and Applications”

The development and application of ecosystem models in estuarine and coastal systems has grown exponentially over the past four decades. Models have become ensconced as major tools for both heuristic study of ecosystem structure and function as well as for informing management decisions, particularly with respect to cultural eutrophication. In recent years an ever-expanding toolbox of modeling approaches is being offered to complement traditional methods. This expansion of modeling in estuarine and coastal science was exemplified by four sessions devoted to modeling at the 2007 biennial conference of the Estuarine Research Federation in Providence, RI. We felt the time was right to propose a special session of Ecological Modelling to synthesize talks from these sessions to present the state of the art in coastal and estuarine modeling. The collection of papers contained in this special issue presents a diversity of traditional and novel modeling approaches, methods for assessing model validity and predictability, and the utility of models in management applications. We believe that together these papers provide an excellent overview of current approaches to modeling estuarine hydrodynamics, water quality, and ecosystem/food web dynamics, applications of complex and relatively simple modeling approaches, applications in both deep and shallow coastal systems, goals relevant for both heuristic and management applications, and perspectives based on traditional mechanistic model development as well as more recent alternative approaches.     

HOW CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN GREAT LAKES MANAGEMENT: MODELING WORKSHOP RESULTS1

ABSTRACT: In two workshops, we evaluated decision analysis methods for comparing Lake Erie levels management alternatives under climate change uncertainty. In particular, we wanted to see how acceptable and effective those methods could be in a public planning setting. The methods evaluated included simulation modeling, scenario analysis, decision trees and structured group discussions. We evaluated the methods by interviewing the workshop participants before and after the workshops. The participants, who were experienced Great Lakes water resources managers, concluded that simulation modeling is user-friendly enough to enable scenario analysis even in workshop settings for large public planning studies. They felt that simulation modeling can improve not only understanding of the system, but also of the options for managing it. Scenario analysis revealed that the decision for the case study, Lake Erie water level regulation, could be altered by the likelihood of climate change. The participants also recommended that structured group discussions be used in public planning settings to elicit ideas and opinions. On the other hand, the participants were less optimistic about decision trees because they felt that the public might view subjective probabilities as difficult to understand and subject to manipulation.     

Basic Principles and Ecological Consequences of Altered Flow Regimes for Aquatic Biodiversity

The flow regime is regarded by many aquatic ecologists to be the key driver of river and floodplain wetland ecosystems. We have focused this literature review around four key principles to highlight the important mechanisms that link hydrology and aquatic biodiversity and to illustrate the consequent impacts of altered flow regimes: Firstly, flow is a major determinant of physical habitat in streams, which in turn is a major determinant of biotic composition; Secondly, aquatic species have evolved life history strategies primarily in direct response to the natural flow regimes; Thirdly, maintenance of natural patterns of longitudinal and lateral connectivity is essential to the viability of populations of many riverine species; Finally, the invasion and success of exotic and introduced species in rivers is facilitated by the alteration of flow regimes. The impacts of flow change are manifest across broad taxonomic groups including riverine plants, invertebrates, and fish. Despite growing recognition of these relationships, ecologists still struggle to predict and quantify biotic responses to altered flow regimes. One obvious difficulty is the ability to distinguish the direct effects of modified flow regimes from impacts associated with land-use change that often accompanies water resource development. Currently, evidence about how rivers function in relation to flow regime and the flows that aquatic organisms need exists largely as a series of untested hypotheses. To overcome these problems, aquatic science needs to move quickly into a manipulative or experimental phase, preferably with the aims of restoration and measuring ecosystem response.     

Considering the locals: coastal construction and destruction in times of climate change on Anjouan,Comoros

The current discussion of anticipated climate change impacts and future sea level rise is particularly relevant to small island states. An increase in natural hazards, such as floods and storm waves, is likely to have a devastating impact on small islands' coastlines, severely affecting targeted sustainable development. Coastal erosion, notably human‐induced erosion, has been an ongoing threat to small island biodiversity, resources, infrastructure, and settlements, as well as society at large. In the context of climate change, the problem of coastal erosion and the debate surrounding it is gaining momentum. Before attributing associated impacts to climate change, current human activities need to be analysed, focusing not only on geomorphological and climatological aspects, but also on political and traditional cultural frameworks. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of the social‐political‐ecological systems analysis for adaptation strategies, and thus for future sustainable development. Coastal use is based on human constructs of the coast, as well as local perceptions and values ascribed to the coast. We use the case study of Anjouan, Comoros to differentiate between constructive and destructive practices on the coast, from both a mental and technical perspective. Beach erosion is described as more than a resource problem that manifests itself locally rather than nationally. Divergent political scales of interest impact future development as much as local action. Local action is not least framed by mental contribution and attribution of coasts as places for living, recreation and resource use. The present case study demonstrates that mental constructs of coasts as valuable areas can, in some cases, lead to the protection and preservation of beaches by initiatives of collective action. At the same time, local communities see the negative impacts of sand mining as causes of coastal erosion and, therefore, it is difficult to mobilize them to adapt to climate change and sea level rise.     

The role of personal experience in frequency of rainwater tank maintenance and policy implications

Domestic rainwater tanks have a long history in Australia, although more recently they have been common only in remote and rural areas. However, in some urban areas, recent drought conditions have led to the promotion of rainwater tanks to supplement domestic water supplies. Evidence suggests that water tank maintenance may be insufficient in many cases, leading to problems with water quality and the potential spread of vector-borne disease. Drawing on research into the impact of personal experience (i.e. procedural knowledge) relating to pro-environmental behaviour, a survey of urban residents with mandated rainwater tanks (N?=?746) was conducted. The study assessed whether past personal history of living with a tank influenced the frequency of tank maintenance behaviours. Analyses indicated that both childhood and prior adult experience with rainwater tanks were important in predicting adequate tank maintenance behaviour, particularly among males. The results also showed that attitudinal perceptions of water culture did not influence maintenance behaviour, whereas direct past experiences did, suggesting an important role for procedural knowledge. These results are discussed with reference to the promotion of tank maintenance and other pro-environmental behaviours through the development of future environmental policies designed to foster the development of pro-environmental skills to empower citizens.     

Application of integrated micro sensor in internal measurement of high temperature fuel cell

This study developed an integrated (flow, voltage, and temperature) micro sensor using the micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) technology. It was inserted into the high temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cell (HT-PEMFC) for local real-time measurement. The integrated micro sensor is made of 40 µm thick stainless steel base material, and its protective layer is formed by polyimide (PI) that has better temperature resistance. The integrated micro sensor has three functions, and is favorably characterized by small size, good acid resistance and temperature resistance, quick response, real-time measurement, and being able to be put in any place for measurement. After calibration, and its reliability confirmed, the integrated micro sensor is inserted into the HT-PEMFC for local microcosmic measurement.