“绿色流域建设”的湖泊富营养化防治思路及其在洱海的应用

虽然经过“十一五”阶段的治理,但我国湖泊富营养化形势依然严峻,湖泊富营养化治理仍然是目前我国水环境领域最为艰巨的任务之一. 根据长期在湖泊富营养化治理领域的研究与实践经验,提出我国应“立足流域进行统筹规划和治理,建设湖泊绿色流域”的湖泊富营养化防治思路. 通过梳理和提炼,提出了湖泊绿色流域构建的六大体系,即“产业结构调整控污减排、污染源工程治理与控制、低污染水处理与净化、清水产流机制修复、湖泊水体生境改善、流域系统管理与生态文明建设”. 同时,将“湖泊绿色流域建设”思路应用在洱海水污染防治工作中,针对洱海水污染特征与治理定位,提出了洱海水污染防治的技术路线,构建了洱海绿色流域建设的六大体系.      

河湖水系连通分类体系探讨

河湖水系连通是保障国家水安全的治水新方略,科学的分类体系是开展河湖水系连通研究和生产实践的必然要求。论文结合河湖水系连通特点和内涵,提出五项分类原则:科学性、系统性、主导性、区域性和可操作性。综合考虑河湖水系连通的自然属性和经济社会属性,遵循五项分类原则,从连通性质、连通功能、连通区域、连通尺度、连通对象、连通时效、空间格局和连通方向等方面进行分类,初步构建了河湖水系连通分类体系,并对国内典型案例进行了归类;选择基于连通性质的分类、基于连通功能的分类和基于地区水资源特征的分类等三个主要分类展开分析,探讨了三种类型的连通特性、连通目标等主要问题。     

Development of a framework for fire risk assessment using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies

Forest fires play a critical role in landscape transformation, vegetation succession, soil degradation and air quality. Improvements in fire risk estimation are vital to reduce the negative impacts of fire, either by lessen burn severity or intensity through fuel management, or by aiding the natural vegetation recovery using post-fire treatments. This paper presents the methods to generate the input variables and the risk integration developed within the Firemap project (funded under the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology) to map wildland fire risk for several regions of Spain. After defining the conceptual scheme for fire risk assessment, the paper describes the methods used to generate the risk parameters, and presents proposals for their integration into synthetic risk indices. The generation of the input variables was based on an extensive use of geographic information system and remote sensing technologies, since the project was intended to provide a spatial and temporal assessment of risk conditions. All variables were mapped at 1 km² spatial resolution, and were integrated into a web-mapping service system. This service was active in the summer of 2007 for semi-operational testing of end-users. The paper also presents the first validation results of the danger index, by comparing temporal trends of different danger components and fire occurrence in the different study regions.     

Obscuring Ecosystem Function with Application of the Ecosystem Services Concept

Abstract: Conservationists commonly have framed ecological concerns in economic terms to garner political support for conservation and to increase public interest in preserving global biodiversity. Beginning in the early 1980s, conservation biologists adapted neoliberal economics to reframe ecosystem functions and related biodiversity as ecosystem services to humanity. Despite the economic success of programs such as the Catskill/Delaware watershed management plan in the United States and the creation of global carbon exchanges, today's marketplace often fails to adequately protect biodiversity. We used a Marxist critique to explain one reason for this failure and to suggest a possible, if partial, response. Reframing ecosystem functions as economic services does not address the political problem of commodification. Just as it obscures the labor of human workers, commodification obscures the importance of the biota (ecosystem workers) and related abiotic factors that contribute to ecosystem functions. This erasure of work done by ecosystems impedes public understanding of biodiversity. Odum and Odum's radical suggestion to use the language of ecosystems (i.e., emergy or energy memory) to describe economies, rather than using the language of economics (i.e., services) to describe ecosystems, reverses this erasure of the ecosystem worker. Considering the current dominance of economic forces, however, implementing such solutions would require social changes similar in magnitude to those that occurred during the 1960s. Niklas Luhmann argues that such substantive, yet rapid, social change requires synergy among multiple societal function systems (i.e., economy, education, law, politics, religion, science), rather than reliance on a single social sphere, such as the economy. Explicitly presenting ecosystem services as discreet and incomplete aspects of ecosystem functions not only allows potential economic and environmental benefits associated with ecosystem services, but also enables the social and political changes required to ensure valuation of ecosystem functions and related biodiversity in ways beyond their measurement on an economic scale.     

生草栽培对三种岭南水果种植系统的生态经济影响评价

综合运用能值、经济与土壤生态学分析方法,以传统清耕模式为对照,定量研究了生草栽培对荔枝（LitchichinensisSonn）、龙眼（DimocarpuslonganLour）和番荔枝（AnnonasquamosaLinn）三种岭南水果种植系统的生态经济影响。整合系统物质流、能量流和货币流,综合分析其自然资源基础、经济发展状况及可持续发展程度,并将土壤有机质的消耗纳入不可更新自然资源能值投入分析,为岭南水果业生草栽培与否提供科学依据。结果表明,生草栽培可以将荔枝和龙眼种植系统的能值可持续性从传统清耕模式的0．16和0．46分别提升到0．17和0．47;而使番荔枝种植系统的能值可持续性从传统清耕模式的0．59降至0．45。同时,生草栽培可提高荔枝和番荔枝种植系统的经济效益,而降低龙眼种植系统的经济效益。所有案例结果均表明,生草栽培可降低果园土壤有机质的消耗。     

化学物质水体归趋与影响数据库(CAFE)，一种用于评估水环境中化学物质溢出水平的工具

化学物质水体归趋与影响 (简称CAFE)数据库是一个允许快速并无限制访问数据的集中式数据库。CAFE将现有的32 377种化学物质的归趋数据和4 498种化学物质的毒性效果数据整合至用户友好的工具中,以物种敏感度分布(SSD)的形式总结毒性数据,并提供了相关的1%和5%危害浓度(HC₁和HC₅)。为探究CAFE数据与报道的化学事故之间的联系,一项数据可用性评估显示,2000年至2014年间在美国国家应急中心呈报的55种化学物质中,32种物质的归趋和20种物质的毒性在CAFE中均有记录;2003年至2014年间由美国海洋及大气管理局呈报的205种化学物质中,86种物质的归趋和103种物质的毒性在CAFE中也均有记录。我们假设2种化学物质在环境中溢出(丙烯腈,溢出量为625桶 ;变性乙醇,溢出量为857桶),根据模型对其环境浓度进行模拟,进而说明CAFE在实际中的应用。在24 h时程的SSD中,大多数物种很可能分别在溢出后最初的35 min内和15 h内受到丙烯腈和变性酒精的影响。丙烯腈浓度在溢出后45 min已低于HC₅(17 mg?L^L-1),变性酒精浓度在溢出后60 h已低于HC₅(2 676 mg?L^L-1)。将100种化学物质以CAFE数据为基础得出的HC₅与发表的HC₅进行对比,我们发现超过一半的数值都在2倍差异以内,较少的一部分数值则超过了10倍差异。CAFE的发展提高了获取相关环境信息的能力,并可能应用于水体环境污染物溢出分析之外的更多领域。
精选自Adriana C. Bejarano, James K. Farr, Polly Jenne, Valerie Chu, Al Hielscher. The chemical aquatic fate and effects database (CAFE), a tool that supports assessments of chemical spills in aquatic environments. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 7, pages 1576–1586, July 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3289
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3289/full
     

目前针对水环境化学品风险评估的方法是正确的么？

我们想要保护水生生态环境,通过测试数以千计的化学物质和成百上千的水生物种之间交互作用,得到成千上万的结果,但仍然不可能考虑到所有物质的混合情况。污染物对野生鱼类的内分泌干扰作用的课题推动了人们对如药物之类的微污染物的研究。尽管我们担心鱼类会因污染而繁殖能力下降,但并没有足够的证据表明鱼类种群处于危险之中。事实上,许多鱼类生物学家认为,在过去的30 - 40年里,鲤科的数量已经在逐步恢复中。目前的风险评估的关键在于其核心假设,也就是实验室观测或者模型预测的结果简单地适用于群体水平,显而易见这个假设是值得质疑的。 我们明白了疏于监测野生动物种群的变化成为了我们的环境保护战略的关键弱点。如果我们不知道水生野生动物物种是在减少或增加,那么我们研究的其他生态毒理行为又有多少价值呢？
精选自Andrew C. Johnson, John P. Sumpter. Are we going about chemicals risk assessment for the aquatic environment the wrong way?. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 7, pages 1609–1616, July 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3441
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3441/full
     

基于QSAR模型的蒙特卡洛方法分析有机化学物质对大型蚤(Daphnia magna)的毒性

本文建立一系列758种有机化合物对大型蚤(Daphnia magna)毒性的定量结构-活性关系(QSARs)。用简化的分子线性输入系统(SMILES)代表分子结构。用CORAL(关联和逻辑)软件作为工具来开发QSAR模型。这些模型使用蒙特卡罗方法建立,依据的原理是QSAR是一个“随机事件”,假设检验一组随机数据分布在可见的训练集和不可见的验证集。检验了三组分布于可见的训练、校准、测试集中的数据以及不可见的验证集。最佳模型的预测潜能,也就是其不可见的验证集的统计特征如下:n = 87,r² = 0.8377,RMSE = 0.564。建议和讨论了所构建模型的机械解释和适用领域。
精选自Alla P. Toropova, Andrey A. Toropov, Aleksandar M. Veselinovi?, Jovana B. Veselinovi?, Danuta Leszczynska, Jerzy Leszczynski. Monte Carlo based QSAR models for toxicity of organic chemicals to Daphnia magna. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 11, pages 2691–2697, November 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3466
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3466/full
     

Strategic directions for agent-based modeling: avoiding the YAAWN syndrome

In this short communication, we examine how agent-based modeling has become common in land change science and is increasingly used to develop case studies for particular times and places. There is a danger that the research community is missing a prime opportunity to learn broader lessons from the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), or at the very least not sharing these lessons more widely. How do we find an appropriate balance between empirically rich, realistic models and simpler theoretically grounded models? What are appropriate and effective approaches to model evaluation in light of uncertainties not only in model parameters but also in model structure? How can we best explore hybrid model structures that enable us to better understand the dynamics of the systems under study, recognizing that no single approach is best suited to this task? Under what circumstances – in terms of model complexity, model evaluation, and model structure – can ABMs be used most effectively to lead to new insight for stakeholders? We explore these questions in the hope of helping the growing community of land change scientists using models in their research to move from ‘yet another model’ to doing better science with models.     

Evolving human landscapes: a virtual laboratory approach

ABSTRACT

Different human societies shape landscapes differently. Anthroecology theory explains this long-term differential shaping of landscapes as the product of sociocultural niche construction (SNC): an evolutionary theory coupling social change with ecosystem engineering. The evolutionary mechanisms underpinning this theory cannot be tested without experimental approaches capable of reproducing emergent selection processes acting on the combined suite of cultural, material, and ecological inheritances that determine the adaptive fitness of human individuals, groups, and societies. Agent-based modeling, as a ‘generative social science’ tool, appears ideal for this. Here we propose an agent-based virtual laboratory (ABVL) approach to generating and testing basic hypotheses on SNC as a general mechanism capable of producing the broadly varied anthroecological forms and dynamics of human landscapes from prehistory to present. While major challenges must still be overcome, a prospective modeling framework specification, guiding questions, and illustrative examples demonstrate clear potential for an ABVL to test predictions of anthroecology theory through generative social simulation.